NycStormChaser

Flash Flooding possible today. https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0334&yr=2019

Biggest burn by the HRRR (And all models really) was last monday the 20th. We were chasing in the plains and SPC issued a high risk. Every single piece of data and all the models pointed to a large tornado outbreak right up until 12 or 1 pm. The cloud cover never really cleared out and the models underestimated the lapse rates. We got a tornado that day but it was far from an outbreak.

000 NOUS41 KPHI 291539 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-070-071-101>106-300345- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2019 ...SUSSEX COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY STORM SURVEY UPDATE... SURVEY TEAMS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAVE ARRIVED ON SCENE IN BERKS COUNTY AS WELL AS SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE TEAM IN SUSSEX COUNTY HAS DETERMINED THAT THE STORM DAMAGE IN STANHOPE WAS CAUSED BY A TORNADO. THE TEAM STILL HAS YET TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS SUCH AS PATH LENGTH, WIDTH, AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE FORTHCOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE DETAILS ARE RELAYED BACK TO THE OFFICE. THE TEAM IN BERKS COUNTY IS CURRENTLY WORKING WITH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DAMAGE HAS NOT BEEN RELAYED BACK TO THE OFFICE AT THIS TIME. AS SOON AS AN ASSESSMENT IS MADE AVAILABLE, WE WILL RELAY PROVIDED DETAILS IN ADDITIONAL PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST REGARDING TODAY'S STORM SURVEYS. $$ KRUZDLO/MIKETTA

Just to show how close myself and my chase partner were to the tornado (Presumably) path in Northwest, New Jersey earlier. We are the green dots on the bottom left. We tried to scope it out to get footage but the area was locked down.

We were looking across lake hopatcong. We were on the southwest side. There has to be at least 20 transformers pop

Cannot confirm due to hills but we were on a lake in Sussex, NJ when the wall cloud lowered and transformers started popping all around us. Will post footage later. Trees down too. Im going to say it was a tornado. im sure nws will send a team out

Yep went TOR warned again

Yep. We were heading south. Turning back north now though. The southern storms look to turn into a mess

Expanded tornado watch

Sounds crazy, but it is not out of the realm of possibilities that the tornado threat extends further east into NE NJ and the NYC area. It is not likely that will happen but some signs are starting to hint at that along the boundary around 0z

This storm in PA is definitely trying to get more organized.

We are targeting an area between Lancaster, PA and Trenton, New Jersey for our chase today. I think that will be the greatest risk area for tornadoes.

Agreed. We all know what the marine layer does once you get closer to the NYC area.

Was just about to post that.

This is an experimental model but figured i'd throw it out there anyway. And here is the HREF

Via SPC:

Let the event play out. This was always a PA/NJ day. I think the NYC will get some nice thunderstorms between 8PM and midnight. Might not be severe but should be a nice lightning show.

This threat is still very much alive. Especially for Eastern Pennsylvania. Next SPC update comes out in 5 or so minutes. Mt holly and Upton still on board.

Oh yeah, for sure. A lot can go wrong. There is a chance cloud cover doesn't break. HRRR says Eastern PA on eastward remains cloudy all day.

I am surprised more people are not talking about today's event, especially those in eastern pennsylvania and western new jersey.