hudsonvalley21

Forcast low IMBY is 10. Down to 18.3 so far.

Finished up with 9.2" here on the east side of the county.

Here too picked up nicely. Also, my temp fell down 1 full deg in 1/2 an hour. Now 23.1

Just started snowing here in eastern Orange county. 24.1/16

Radar is starting to pop. Pertty cool.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST TUE JAN 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY AND SRN CT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 120100Z - 120600Z SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING FROM ERN PA AND NJ THROUGH SERN NY AND SRN CT. RATES LOCALLY GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z. THIS EVENING A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERTAKE BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD...RESULTING IN DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OFF THE VA COAST AS IT LIFTS NWD OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH WILL AUGMENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TRENDS ALREADY INDICATE SNOW EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM ERN PA INTO NJ. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED AS BANDS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE. A DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY AOA -5C WILL EXIST BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH COULD SERVE TO FURTHER AUGMENT SNOWFLAKE GROWTH THROUGH AGGREGATION. RATES WILL LIKELY LOCALLY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

12z NAM run today has backed off on the QPF to 0.78 for KSWF

00z NAM came in with 1.37 of QPF for KSWF :snowman: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KSWF.txt

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 427 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES INTO MON...SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED WITH ONLY FEW-SCT STRATOCU ATOP THE INVERSION...AND MIXING BELOW RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY OF GUSTY NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM ONTARIO MON NIGHT. UNDERCUT COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS I NORMALLY WOULD FOR SNOW COVERED AREAS...SINCE A 15-20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN LATE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER MAJOR SNOWSTORM...THE SECOND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN JUST A LITTLE OVER TWO WEEKS AND THE THIRD FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT! SIDED WITH A 12Z NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE NASCENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SAT WV IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED BAROCLINIC LEAF AND COMMA HEAD...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NEAR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF MEXICO...AND ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS. PROLIFIC LIGHTNING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE INDICATIVE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAN MOST MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH MAY FORCE AN EVENTUAL FARTHER W LOW TRACK...AND THE NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. EVEN SO...STRONG ISALLOBARIC N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS AS THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW MOVES FROM NE OF HATTERAS TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONTAUK AND 40N/70W TUE NIGHT BY 12Z WED SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH ONLY THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND STILL IN QUESTION. WEAKER/LESS WET GFS SFC SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR LESS OF AN ISALLOBARIC LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT AND THEREFORE MORE ONSHORE AND BLYR WARMING...WITH MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT ALL THE WAY BACK TO COASTAL CT AND ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER LONG ISLAND. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN REJECTED ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS WAS ALSO TOO WARM IN COASTAL SECTIONS FOR THE LATE DECEMBER BLIZZARD. WINDS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN NYC AND COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THEY WILL COINCIDE WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO PRODUCE TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WITH THE LATE DECEMBER STORM. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS RUNNING HIGH...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH GREATER TOTALS WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP...MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. HWO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES COULD BE RAISED OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM PASSES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WED...TROUGHING LAGGING BEHIND COULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST INTO WED AFTERNOON...WHILE A BLUSTERY NW WIND CONTINUES.-- End Changed Discussion --

Thanks for the breakdown. here is the 12z NAM for KSWF showing 1.19 of QPF thru 84 hrs. 850s just a touch warmer. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kswf.txt

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1123 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE STORM FOR LATE TUE INTO WED. LATEST 12Z DATA CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. HWO INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI AS THE TRACK HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WWD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE ONLY A PERIOD OF MIXING OR CHANGEOVER...AS OPPOSED TO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM STILL UNRESOLVED AS WELL. ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS. SUBTROPICAL TAP ALREADY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR...SO MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOW ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. STORM EXITS LATE WED WITH FAIR WEATHER THRU FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FCST.-- End Changed Discussion --

Agree, It's not etched in stone yet. More of a west shift will bring those p-type issues to LI but more love for us to the north and west of NYC. Also, OKX getting a little stronger with their wording. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO LIKELY TRACK NEAR THE 40 NORTH/70 WEST BENCHMARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THEN IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM...AND EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM LIKELY WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE EVENT EAST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...AND LOWER NORTHWEST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AT THIS TIME.

Got down to 10 last night. Now the eyes turn to the Tues-Wed event. Looks to be trending closer to the coast. Nice write-up by OKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 405 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING... LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS A SOUTHERN/EASTERN OUTLIER...AND THE 9Z SREF A NORTHERN/WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE STORM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECWMF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE STORM OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ECMWF JUST TO THE NW OF THE BENCHMARK AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED FOR A ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. OTHER THAN THE SREF SOLUTION...THERE IS A CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH THIS IDEA BEING FOLLOWED. THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AZ...IS WELL RESOLVED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS...AND IS HANDLED FAIRLY SIMILARLY BY ALL MODELS. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE EQUATION ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT/SUNDAY IS STILL OVER THE NE PACIFIC...SO HOPEFULLY EITHER THE 00Z OR 12Z SUNDAY BALLOON LAUNCHES WILL CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS A FAST/SHEARED OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SHARPLY ENOUGH (THIS IS A KNOWN GFS BIAS - NOT SHARPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ENOUGH). THE RESULT IS A MORE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOLUTION IN THE GFS. THE OTHER MODELS HANDLE THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BETTER...SO HAVE THE SETUP FOR A LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING MORE THAN THE GFS. BASED ON THE ABOVE HAVE CHANCE POPS SW 1/2...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE 1/2 OF AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES...WHERE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING GIVES PRUDENCE TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TAPER POPS OFF FROM NW TO SE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY BEING DRY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS AMOUNTS...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WOULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS LATTER IDEA IS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW - EMPHASIZING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IDEA IS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR NOW. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT GIVEN SOLID CONSISTENCY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE ECMWF OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM...POSSIBLY A MAJOR ONE...IS INCREASING IN THE LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.

I will not challange her measurements. Sounds good to me. Still light snow as of 4pm and 5" down on the east side of the county.

Light stuff here on the east side of the county. I have 0.5" down so far. It started around 6:30am.

It is nice to have our own thread. We have a couple of mets and other posters join in at times. Also, I don't mind posting in the other threads NYC, New England, etc. I have never had a problem. Again, it's great to have a home here in this thread.

Could have higher than the 10:1 normal. That could make things up if the NAM is a bit overdone.

That would drop a foot for the area. Not bad at all. Sometimes the NAM QPF totals could be overdone. I would cut this in half and still be happy. We'll see. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kswf.txt

Happy New Years ! Hope for some winter fun for everyone but most of all, a healthy and great year to you and your famlies.

Good idea. When they those 2-3 foot snowfalls, they could use the machines to get stranded people off the highways, attend to medical calls, and use for park patrols. They can even pick up EMS staff that live in the city that can't make it into work due to down subway lines buses, etc.

Thanks from me too! I wound up with 17-18 inches of pure powder. It was a breeze with the snowblower and I did not hear of any issues of folks loosing power in my area. The next one is yours.

Same thoughts here just on the other side of the river. Measured 15" at 11:30. Had another inch or two in the last hour. So I see we are close.

Ramped up again here too. The winds have died off for the last half an hour. Pretty strange.

Just did the driveway. Measured 15.5 off the car and 17.0 off the lawn. Still more to come.