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hudsonvalley21

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Everything posted by hudsonvalley21

  1. DCA: +2.2 NYC: +2.9 BOS: +1.8 ORD: +1.2  ATL: +2.7 IAH: +0.6 DEN +0.5 PHX: +0.6 SEA: +0.8  NYC forum 
  2. I guess the million dollar question would be what wins. The angular momentum or the HP in the Atlantic.
  3. DCA: +1.7 NYC: +2.1 BOS: +2.8 ORD: +0.9  ATL: +0.7 IAH: +1.6 DEN +0.5 PHX: +1.8 SEA: +1.6  NYC forum 
  4. .93 here on the Davis yesterday morning. 7.91 for the month so far.
  5. Could get active later. A section of SPC's disc, Scattered thunderstorms in bands and clusters are expected to develop this afternoon and move eastward to east-northeastward across the area, offering the risk of damaging gusts and sporadic hail. Some destabilization should occur over central/eastern New England ahead of an ongoing cloud/precip plume over NY, and an isolated damaging gust cannot be ruled out from the most intense cores in that regime. The more sustained and concentrated convective potential, with occasional damaging to severe winds, is forecast behind the morning cloud/precip plume and along/southeast of the frontal zone as the richly moist boundary layer diabatically destabilizes. MLCAPE should range from the 2000-3000 J/kg range over southern New England, NJ and the lower Hudson Valley region where boundary-layer theta-e and heating each will be maximized, to 1000-1500 J/kg over the northern parts of the outlook area. Even though the mid/upper trough will be weakening with time as it approaches the area, that approach will lead to height falls, large-scale DCVA/cooling aloft, and strengthening of mid/upper winds and, to a limited extent, low-level and deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings suggest about 25-35 kt effective-shear magnitudes, but also, enough low-level hodograph curvature to yield marginal SRH for at least transient supercell characteristics. The primary storm mode should be multicellular, with marginally severe hail and sporadic damaging wind.
  6. 2.17 so far for the month of August in the bucket here.
  7. 0.77 in the bucket for yesterday. 0.43 so far today, another thunderstorm Just about on the doorstep.
  8. Just got out of the Goshen farmers market in time. They were breaking things down in a hurry. Decent thunderstorm here in Goshen, nothing severe.
  9. Welcome to the snowhole. In the winter months, you get a great up close look of the river ice at the Cornwall marina.
  10. DCA +1.6 NYC +2.2 BOS +1.8 ORD +1.1 ATL +1.6 IAH +1.4 DEN +1.9 PHX +1.3 SEA -0.1
  11. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. Hang in there buddy. If you need something, let me know. God Bless.
  12. A section of Uptons AFD Next concern is rainfall. Operational ECMWF/HRRR have been forecasting heavy rain bands capable of producing a quick 2-3 inches of rain either just west of or straddling our NE NJ counties, also additional similar rain bands running through parts of western Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley, and SW CT. Have higher confidence in the location of the westernmost band but not those farther east, and since their coverage is not widespread and HREF probabilities of 2+ inches of rain was greatest just west of our area, opted against issuing a flash flood watch. Depending on where these bands set up, will most likely have to issue minor flood advisories, but will still have to watch NYC closely for greater impacts to urban infrastructure and possible flash flood warnings to address any direct impact of that magnitude.
  13. Seen the same while I was driving on 17 in goshen to Middletown. I thought I briefly seen a scud cloud, couldn't see much while driving. At home in New Windsor, 0.16 in the bucket not much in this area vs Middletown for precip. Edit, with frontal passage, 2nd thundershower came thru, total in the bucket for today 0.48
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