Could get active later. A section of SPC's disc,
Scattered thunderstorms in bands and clusters are expected to
develop this afternoon and move eastward to east-northeastward
across the area, offering the risk of damaging gusts and sporadic
hail.
Some destabilization should occur over central/eastern New England
ahead of an ongoing cloud/precip plume over NY, and an isolated
damaging gust cannot be ruled out from the most intense cores in
that regime. The more sustained and concentrated convective
potential, with occasional damaging to severe winds, is forecast
behind the morning cloud/precip plume and along/southeast of the
frontal zone as the richly moist boundary layer diabatically
destabilizes. MLCAPE should range from the 2000-3000 J/kg range
over southern New England, NJ and the lower Hudson Valley region
where boundary-layer theta-e and heating each will be maximized, to
1000-1500 J/kg over the northern parts of the outlook area.
Even though the mid/upper trough will be weakening with time as it
approaches the area, that approach will lead to height falls,
large-scale DCVA/cooling aloft, and strengthening of mid/upper winds
and, to a limited extent, low-level and deep-layer shear. Forecast
soundings suggest about 25-35 kt effective-shear magnitudes, but
also, enough low-level hodograph curvature to yield marginal SRH for
at least transient supercell characteristics. The primary storm
mode should be multicellular, with marginally severe hail and
sporadic damaging wind.