FallsLake

No the NAM is looking juicy. Our region (as normal) is on the line. But the 84 hour NAM snow fall shows 2-4" across Wake (most for CR), with more to come. You would have to assume most of that would not stick; but still...

Nam is also ever so slight colder at the surface; especially on the onset.

Man your right; for me it's got a chance of rain or snow until 1am.

Here's the 6z NAM at hour 81 (temps at RDU look like 33/32):

The way things are shaping up; if anybody sees snow flakes falling from the sky, consider that a win. RAH is talking a little bit more about snow (than yesterday): It will be unsettled with a threat of light precipitation persisting for Thursday and Friday as disturbances aloft in the fast southwesterly flow provide sufficient forcing for precipitation. The greatest threat and precipitation amounts are still expected to the south and east of Raleigh across the Coastal Plain and Coastal region. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in how far north and west the precipitation will extend and the overall amounts. NWP guidances has struggled with this for several days and this is a pattern which is often problematic. There is a reasonable chance that some of the precipitation Thursday morning and especially Thursday night and Friday morning could fall as some wet snow or a mix of rain and wet snow across the Piedmont. The amount of cold air will be the primary limiting factor which should keep things from getting out of hand. Warm boundary layer temperatures, relatively warm soil temperatures, light precipitation amounts, weak precipitation rates and questions regarding the ability of the moisture to extend into the ice nucleation region across the northwest flank of the precipitation axis where temperatures would be most favorable for wet snow suggest a marginal event with fairly high confidence that impacts will be limited. No accumulation is forecast at this point although a few GFS/EPS ensemble members which include unsophisticated assumptions indicate some minor accumulation is possible. After morning lows in the mid to upper 30s, highs on Thursday will range in the mid to upper 40s. Lows Thursday night will fall into the lower to mid 30s with highs on Friday only in the lower to mid 40s.

^^CR, at least we'll save on the heating bill.

Can we keep this thread open through next winter?

Not giving up yet, but the writing is on the wall (or has been since January). Really amazing how many days I didn't have to run the heat. Usually in January and February it constantly stays on; this year half the days it was off. Maybe we can pull a cool spring and not turn on AC until late May.

I also feel lucky getting what I got. Areas just miles to my south got very little. I have a feeling this spring may end up colder than normal. Seems in years past, after a warm winter spring tends to balance it back.

Yep that would be the safe bet. (so)Bring on a 1996 repeat!

By the way, if it's going to sleet I say let it stay sleet. If we can get some higher QPF totals that could equate to a decent event. One of my favorite storms was the 1996 sleet fest and that dropped 6" of sleet in Wake forest.

I know I shouldn't complain, but I'm on pins and needles for MBY. The short range models have me right on the boarder of the transition. 5 to 10 mile shifts mean very different totals. But if this ends up a sleet fest I'll still enjoy it.

RDU folks, till a good place to be for this storm. We very well could get mixing but I think that would not last long. Still looks to be a nice daytime snow on Saturday.

So there are some on this board that are now pulling for the euro and not the GFS. A few others like both. Still funny how things can switch.

We have a lot things and folks against us right now: Euro, mets, MA forum, climo, range (still far out), and luck.

A good Miller B with good CAD that transfers to the coast at a lower latitude? Or a bad one with weaker CAD and gets north or our latitude?

But we can enjoy it while it last. I said this before, for the amount of snow we actually get each year it's amazing how many times we're at least in the game to get a significant storm. So basically you're right, we get sucked in a lot and have a lot of heartbreak.

The DGEX would be historic as it's depicted. As stated in the other thread even at hour 192 it looks to still be at it's height (at least over central/eastern NC). Now back to reality, we could still have some enhancement to whatever storm we get. Water temps off the coast are still above normal and could add to a storms development; in which the models may not calculate correctly. So the 6z GFS could still be a good setup.

My 4000th post. Bummer of a day. Things not looking good for the SE in the short term and long term. La nina looks to be in control and providing the typical pattern that keeps the cold to the west. Of course I have hope for the rest of winter, fab February has saved us the last few years, but right now there's no excitement.

It would be wonderful to have every model run show a great winter storm. As other have said, at this time range all you want is a storm signal. Even if this storm does (or doesn't) occur, can you imagine how many more model solutions will present themselves in the coming days.

But it gets blocked (...get it?):

We need the PNA to go positive. Whatever cold air we (NA) have will continue to just dump to our west. I know the EPO can do wonders but its seems a positive PNA is a primary indice for the SE.

Yep, that GL low seems to be the killer. Maybe that can turn in our favor in future runs. (also) The thing that can be upsetting is the day 16 of these run now takes us into mid January. We in the SE are now starting to lose prime winter storm time.

This thread should be hot today after the latest run of the GFS. Everything stays to the west. I guess you could say both the 0z para and 6z GFS look a little interesting at day 16; but hasn't day 16 always looked interesting.

I'll have to say it's hard to get excited about future prospects with the current warm temps we're getting. Should be close to 70 at RDU tomorrow. I guess the only thing to do is enjoy it.