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hstorm

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Everything posted by hstorm

  1. hstorm
    At least for the DC suburbs, 6z RGEM looks slightly colder and slightly snowier than 0z. 8.2/-5.8
  2. hstorm
    Ukie did its weird p-type thing again on this run (panels of snow after the flip). Not as extreme as at 12z. But still there. So not sure how much to trust either the 12z or 18z snow map.
  3. hstorm
    Although heavy freezing rain is likely preferable to lighter freezing rain because it won't accrete as efficiently on trees, power lines, etc.
  4. hstorm
    Seems consistent with prior runs and other guidance:
  5. hstorm
    12k NAM:
  6. hstorm
    GFS:
  7. hstorm
    I noticed that too. Sleet/mix line stalls and then creeps south, presumably with the coastal transfer. Too late for anything meaningful for the DC metro but close. Also, like the NAM, would only take a small south shift in the stall point to cause a meaningful change for the metros. But a solid run regardless.
  8. hstorm
    Ukie looks colder than 18z through 60 (which was end of run for the 18z).
  9. hstorm
    That's how we roll in America. Canadians and Ukies and Euros just can't grasp it.
  10. hstorm
    RGEM did the same thing at 12z.
  11. hstorm
    ICON and RGEM both seem pretty similar to their 12z runs, at least as to final outcomes.
  12. hstorm
    3k NAM looks quite a bit colder at 60 (end of run) than the 12k.
  13. hstorm
    I have always assumed it counts sleet because sleet counts as snow (for reporting purposes)
  14. hstorm
    6.47 miles, give or take a few feet. More seriously, I always take "N&W" to mean changes start at the fall line, with snow amounts, ratios, whatever getting better as you go further N&W from there.
  15. hstorm
    Hopefully this should help quell some of the inexplicable moping about likely snow vs. mix amounts. Also, the trends in the past 12 hours have largely been stable -- a little colder, a little warmer, some small changes to total QPF. I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but I just don't see anything right now that would suggest further dramatic changes.
  16. hstorm
    Largely similar to 0z. Certainly not bad.
  17. hstorm
    Looks like the GFS also has a few tenths more snow after 9z.
  18. hstorm
    RGEM looks a bit colder but also less QPF overall than 6z. At least through 78.
  19. hstorm
    To be fair, I am not sure that’s what the AFD says. It says ratios start at 15-18:1 and trend down to 7-10:1 over the storm. Depending on the initial thump that could well average out to higher than 10:1 over the full storm. In theory, Kuchera should capture this but we all know that it is far from perfect.
  20. hstorm
    Slightly OT but the ZR numbers on the GFS for north Georgia are incredible — 2-3 inches around ATL and much of it falling with temps in the mid-20s
  21. hstorm
  22. hstorm
    Old Farmer's Almanac agrees that we're cooked: Jan 25-26 Rainy, milder
  23. hstorm
    Was the lunch in Georgetown?
  24. hstorm
  25. hstorm
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