Sydney Claridge

And yet another tornado warning now up west of Wynnewood, OK. I'm starting to wonder whether this severe thunderstorm watch will need to be replaced with a tornado watch. We already have 3 active tornado warnings here, 2 with confirmed tornadoes.

Tornado warning polygon over and in the vicinity of Waurika, OK. EDIT: tornado confirmed per warning message.

Watch likely for portions of north Texas and southern Oklahoma, per new SPC mesoscale discussion.

SBCAPE is already in excess of 4000 J/kg and MLCAPE above 3500 J/kg at my location in Tarrant County per SPC Mesoanalysis. I'm wondering if the extreme instability will compensate for lower levels of shear today.

With less SRH modeled for today (but with greater modeled SBCAPE in excess of 4000+ J/kg) I'm starting to think today may be more of concern for damaging winds with MCS potential. Outflow boundaries can be interesting though; I recall how the April 3, 2012 tornado event over DFW was sparked by the presence of an outflow boundary over the DFW area (not saying that's going to happen though). Unlike yesterday I'm actually getting sun here on the west side of Fort Worth. It'll be hard to beat yesterday though with the tornado-warned storms in Parker/Tarrant/Denton counties though, but a more widespread damaging wind event is always a concern.

Starting to wonder about the thunderstorm activity down by Granbury (currently sub-severe) for areas to the ESE of those affected by the tornado warned storms in Tarrant and Denton counties. If this area of storms can strengthen this would be the next threat for DFW.

New tornado warning incoming for area of rotation with that storm near Haslet per WFAA livestream.

Was about to mention that... looks like some (fairly broad) rotation trying to form near Saginaw. Would pose a greater threat for highly populated areas if it tries to tighten up.

Strengthening rotation near Azle, TX.

Tornado warning for eastern Parker and NW Tarrant Counties just west of Fort Worth.

I wonder if that is also affecting the storms around Glen Rose right now or not? It is looking a bit healthier on radar than the ones further west (between Abilene and DFW), though still sub-severe.

Though the main focus is currently on the OK/MO/AR/KS border area, I'm starting to wonder about the storms in Texas, especially the cells west of DFW and around Hico and Glen Rose. None are severe at the moment, but I have my eye on those storms near Hico and Glen Rose as they are moving towards DFW. That said, those storms south of Graham (W of DFW) look stronger and would probably be more likely to go severe if they do so.

Yep, tornado warning now up on that storm per Wunderground radar (sometimes that will show warnings before the NWS text comes out).

It looks like something may be trying to form SW of DFW now, especially just west of Stephenville. Will watch to see if this area of showers can form into some thunderstorms, as the atmosphere there seems volatile. EDIT: and just as I say this, SPC puts out an MD saying that a watch is likely for north-central Texas.

Ada storm seems to have a funnel on it (per KOCO livestream) but the storm seems to be weakening on radar.

New tornado warning up on the storm NE of Ardmore and SE of Sulphur. Only minor radar returns around my area right now but I'm wondering if something could evolve out of it later today near DFW. HRRR has been playing on the idea of storms near DFW for quite some time, but that model could be overdoing it.

It looks like convective initiation is trying to take place around Ardmore as well. I'm wondering if this will try to develop into something more significant, though the best conditions would be later in the day. EDIT: new tornado warning in northern OK north of Pawhuska.

And here's an SREF forecast this for what it's worth. 60% sigtor probability contour showing up in a small area of southern OK, with a 45% contour across much of central OK and a small area of north-central Texas along the Red River: I only wish I could find the calibrated SREF that jojo762 speaks of. SPC also now has a 10% hatched tornado risk in south-central OK and much of SE OK. A small area along the Red River in north Texas is also under the 10% hatched risk; furthermore, the slight risk has been shifted back south across all of the DFW metro area, but it seems that the worst will be NW of DFW. EDIT: and it looks like we have our first tornado warning of the day NE of OKC, in Payne and Lincoln counties. Not surprised with the fairly high EHI out ahead of that storm cluster in central OK.

I'm starting to wonder if storms could form earlier in the day (about 5-6 hours from now) over north-central Texas given the recent HRRR runs showing discrete activity around that time. RAP is depicting the same thing pretty much. EDIT: interestingly enough SPC just downgraded most of DFW to a marginal risk.

I've updated the title to account for the Slight risk for today (April 29) in Texas as well as the broad Slight risk on Wednesday (May 1) as well. Where I'm at (DFW) seems like our highest risk is going to be Wednesday, per the SPC outlook, unless something drastically changes for tomorrow.

Day 3 Slight but over a broader area than previous outlooks: Seems like the threat area is shifting northeast per SPC.

And now SPC has a Day 4 30% risk area out for North Texas (including DFW) and southern Oklahoma. Starting to wonder if this might be a significant event for someone in or near the DFW area.

SPC has introduced an outlined area for Day 6: The GFS-based models have quite a moist airmass over the warm sector (mid-60s to lower-70s dewpoints), but upper level support, in terms of the jet stream winds, seems a little lacking except across northern OK and southern KS from what I can tell (0z FV3 has the warm sector well into KS, while the 0z regular GFS keeps KS in the cool sector).

And a severe thunderstorm warning in Tarrant County as well. I'm starting to hear the rain pick up here on the west side of Fort Worth, but the winds don't seem too strong right now. Storm is warned for 65 mph wind gusts.

That said, I believe those storms may have a northeasterly motion, so DFW may indeed get hit by storms.