Sydney Claridge

Tornado warning now in effect for northern Dallas County, including the Park Cities and Garland.

Looks to be a hook (possibly) trying to form on the radar over Southlake. That storm seems to be intensifying too. EDIT: new SPC MD seems to suggest that then environment is favorable for tornadoes, though fortunately these storms seem to be struggling to show more significant rotation: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2090.html

A hatched tornado risk area is now present on the new SPC outlook within most of the 10% area (in NE TX from just north of DFW, SE OK, and W AR). EDIT: and there is now a tornado warning west of La Grange, much further south along I-10.

Looks like storm initiation may be starting SW of DFW (around Stephenville) based on radar and satellite imagery.

Just keep in mind that West Yellowstone's climate is subarctic (by virtue of its elevation), so it will get colder than you are used to in the winter. At your longitude, you would have to get into far northern Ontario or Quebec before you found a subarctic climate, although West Yellowstone would still be (on average) warmer in the winter than those locations are. Though in terms of climatic extremes, West Yellowstone has recorded the coldest temperature of any populated community in the lower 48 states. The climate in somewhere like Rexburg, ID or Idaho Falls would probably be more manageable, though the surroundings are less scenic.

I had a tree uprooted in my west Fort Worth neighborhood.

Area of rotation is to my north (I'm in west Fort Worth).

Is that cell southwest of Mineral Wells trying to develop some rotation by chance? There might be a couplet near the Palo Pinto Creek Reservoir, though the storm is non-severe at the moment. EDIT: at least it looked like one for a couple of frames on the radar loop. EDIT 2: Storm may now be developing a hook near Weatherford. Still non-severe.

KCTV5 livestream might have shown something trying to tighten up around Parkville.

New tornado emergency including the Bonner Springs and western KC areas.

The 06z run of the NAM3k is presenting a somewhat-concerning scenario for the DFW area, starting with some fairly discrete storms tomorrow afternoon (they do seem to congeal into a line east of DFW with time). SPC mentions that some tornadoes are possible, provided that the thermodynamics are in place: I'm hoping this will be my last severe weather event for quite some time; climatologically north-central Texas is at the end of the severe storm season, and it is about time for the summer pattern to take hold. Especially after what happened in Dayton (not saying that will happen in DFW this time around), I'm hoping I will not need to deal with severe storms for a while.

Was about to mention that storm in SW OK as well. Definitely starting to show that "look" to it. Fairly good ingredients in place too. Wonder if SPC will issue an mesoscale discussion for that area given the storm development happening there.

That could be concerning if this storm can hold together and head towards the major population centers in NW AR like Bentonville or just north of there.

Definitely noticed the flurry of tornado warnings going up NW of Abilene (including for Hamlin) recently. I am keeping my eye on that area for sure.

Was about to mention that... NWS was putting out significant weather advisories for the areas of thunderstorm initiation. Also mentioning other areas of initiation near Fitzhugh and near Gene Autry, off to the east.

I know it's just one model, but the 0z HRRR is trying to send up storms as far south as the DFW area. I have an afternoon-shift job, and I'm starting to get concerned about the potential for severe weather here in Fort Worth. Given what I've read it seems most likely to stay in NW TX and OK (and perhaps AR given Quincy Vagell's post), and from what I can tell the other models seem to agree with that perspective. Wondering if anyone with more expertise might be able to tell if the HRRR might be trying to catch on to something, or if it is overdone for areas this far south.

Severe thunderstorm warning cancelled for the DFW area as that storm has weakened below severe limits.

Severe thunderstorm warning now up for eastern Parker and western Tarrant counties in Texas: And it's a slow mover indeed. Minimally severe at the present moment though.

It looks like a storm is trying to go up south of Mineral Wells, TX, west of DFW, within a recovered airmass behind the MCS. Not severe at the moment, but there seem to be some good parameters in place there per SPC Mesoanalysis (supercell composite, EHI, CAPE, shear), and it's not even within the general thunderstorm outline area. It would probably encounter some issues as it reaches the more stable air over DFW though. I'm getting sunshine in west Fort Worth now so there's definitely instability building ahead of this new cell. EDIT: SPC has issued an MD regarding the possibility for large hail in the DFW area: EDIT 2: The cell seems to be struggling to strengthen, so I'm not sure if it will amount to anything.

And while we're at it, there is a tornado warning ongoing in San Angelo, TX right now. Surprised no one has mentioned this given the potential impacts to a major population center should a tornado touch down. EDIT: and now there's a tornado warning for Abilene, TX as well with the storm moving into that area, so now another major population center is under a tornado warning.

I'm in the DFW area and we already have a (non-severe) thunderstorm complex knocking on our door right now. I wonder if we will manage to clear out earlier than expected? That said, there are still storms west of Abilene, one of which is severe, so it doesn't seem like things will clear out. I believe those storms are the ones that were modeled to form the main MCS, but this complex ahead of them might be problematic as they move eastwards.

Tornado warning now on this storm.

Yep, tornado threat ramped up to 15% hatched near and east of Amarillo.

For what it's worth, today's 6z NAM3K (and the 0z) seem to juice things up enough to initiate storms in OK on Wednesday evening. Today's 6z HRRR (that goes out to 36 hours) puts the MCS' outflow no further south than the northern suburbs of the DFW area at 18z on Wednesday... if that were to verify, seeing an outflow over a populated area does raise my eyebrows just a little bit.

I have noticed some "popcorn" showers forming on radar to the south of the storm complex currently over NW north Texas. I'm a little surprised that nothing has developed from them (capping?), but part of me is wondering if that could change. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but I'm just wondering about the possibility. Seems like some of the echo tops might be trying to come up.