Sydney Claridge

And there’s now a tornado warning on that Kingsbury storm. (there also had been a TW when it passed over Seguin)

Looks like Kingsbury, TX (east of Seguin) is getting hammered by straight-line winds right about now.

Seems like there are two areas of rotation with the Clarksville cell:

There seems to be a weak area of rotation East of Castroville and moving towards US 90 and West Loop 1604, nothing impressive though. Will need to watch how it interacts with the outflow though.

Yeah, there seems to be an outflow boundary in place. If these hooks can get out ahead of the outflow (of which I’ve drawn below), watch out:

I was about to mention the storms moving towards the San Antonio and Austin metro areas. I’m starting to get a little concerned about these storms, especially if they start showing hooks (and velocity couplets) on radar as you mentioned.

For the DFW area I would be more concerned if I saw stronger radar returns trying to form in the circled area below. Also any right-movers developing out of that area of heavy precipitation to the west could be a risk for the western Metroplex.

I remember one time several years ago there was a situation where storms to the west of DFW acted to remove a capping inversion over DFW due to rain-cooled air falling out of the storm anvils, and then storms rapidly went up over the Metroplex. So I could completely see how rain-cooled air aloft could remove an inversion.

Tornado watch now out for north-central Texas.

Severe-warned storm coming into Muskogee seems to be developing a fairly-pronounced hook echo with a velocity couplet. EDIT: and now it is tornado-warned.

Meanwhile radar returns are increasing over and near the DFW Metroplex, primarily Denton County at this time. These particular areas of development seem primed to become more of a severe thunderstorm threat as they move further north. In terms of a DFW-area severe storm threat, I'm continuing to watch for potential development south or southwest of the DFW area, though, and (fortunately) there is nothing in that area yet. The rotation has also weakened on that NE OK storm too.

Some strong low-level rotation is ongoing with a storm in NE OK right now.

And it has started. Two tornado warnings now up in central Oklahoma, one near Prague and one near Atwood.

With all of that warm, humid air out ahead of this storm system, the lack of instability forecasted seems unfortunate. I don't think it would take much CAPE at all to get severe-criteria thunderstorms from a storm system like this. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see a line of showers with severe wind gusts anywhere from SE IL to eastern OH with several models showing a potent low-level jet. (there wasn't a severe thread in this sub, as warm-sector severe isn't expected, so I thought it was best to put that here since it does relate to this storm)

I'll be driving from the west side of Fort Worth to northern Tarrant County around that same time (just before that) as well. Today's 12z NAM3k and HRRR runs both suggest storm initiation around 2pm or so for DFW. If the 12z NAM3k verifies things wouldn't be too bad in Tarrant County, but that 12z HRRR run spells trouble with semi-discrete activity.

Maybe an early start to the spring severe season is in order? Not going to comment on summer at this time. GFS gives some threat across the SPC-delineated regions for Friday and Saturday though the Euro runs look more amped (bringing a fairly-humid warm sector as far north as the Ohio Valley next weekend); if those Euro runs verify then a stronger storm system would track from central Texas to the Midwest-Great Lakes region. EDIT: The only cold I see for DFW is way out in GFS fantasy land. I guess we know how that tends to go.

I'll guess 1250 total tornadoes, first high risk April 1st.

I know we are only in a marginal risk zone, but the storm parameters over the DFW area look somewhat interesting right now. Temperatures in the lower 70s (in places) with upper 60s dew points, in conjunction with some high helicity values (ESRH in the 300-500+ m2/s2 range), could produce some potentially severe storms if we can get storm initiation, though veer-back-veer seems to be an issue based on the change in wind directions between the 700mb and 500mb levels (based on the available SPC mesoanalysis data at the time of this post).

New tornado warning in effect for McKinney and NE Collin County. Rotation signature and small "hook" roughly over US 75 and the Sam Rayburn Tollway. EDIT: strong winds and almost-horizontal rain are now hitting my location in west Fort Worth.

And here comes Round 2. There's already been so much damage that I hope things don't get worse, but this line is turning quite severe pretty rapidly.

So far, from what I've heard and seen from videos, this tornado was a stovepipe rather than a wedge. Some of the traffic backups, of course, would extend outside of the damaged area. The question will be where the damage path is within that blue area. That's not to say you can't get damage well away from the visible tornado itself (since the width of the tornadic winds can extend outside that) or even straight-line wind damage from a rear-flank downdraft.

Definitely a significant tornado for sure. The monetary damages will probably be quite high as this tornado moved through an affluent neighborhood (Preston Hollow area), but less so than if this tornado had moved through a major commercial district (such as the one at 635 and the Tollway). I just hope that everyone in the path is okay, though hearing reports of building collapses leaves me at least somewhat pessimistic. The northernmost area of DFW (Denton, Frisco, etc.) was actually under the enhanced and hatched risk, so it was close.

PDS tornado warning continued for NE Dallas County and SE Collin County for a tornado over Richardson. There are now two (!) rotation signatures, one over Richardson and the other one over Garland.

New SPC MD suggests that an "intense" tornado may be ongoing: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2091.html

Confirmed tornado over Love Field area per WFAA live broadcast, with tornadic debris signature just NW of the the Park Cities. That could rack up a lot of damage pretty quickly depending on its strength. EDIT: it seems that there is a debris ball. PDS tornado warning now in effect. This is getting to be quite a serious situation.