WxJordan

While I do not remember the Blizzard of 93 (I was too young), this was the most snow I have seen as well. I have 13 inches of snow in Morganton. Enjoyed building a small snowman, but walking around in it was rough! Who knows, but we may add a little more too the totals tonight and tomorrow.

Extremely Heavy Snow occurring right now in Morganton. I measured around 7:30 a.m. and had 8.5 inches. Would not be shocked to get over a foot at the current rate.

I have been really impressed with the storm so far. I went to bed at 10:00 p.m. and woke up at 3:30 a.m. to 4 inches of snow, very impressive. Siting at 5 inches of snow at 4:30 a.m. and light to moderate snow continuing with trees bending all over the place. Power outages coming soon I am afraid....

4:30 a.m. Morganton, NC: 5 inches of snow accumulation, Light to moderate snow falling, 32°

I just woke up a little bit ago so I missed those heavy bands LOL. Right now it is snow moderately, but it is also snow. I expect another 5 or so inches before it changes over to sleet and freezing drizzle. Of course, if the warm nose pushes further north than expected, this could change.

Unfortunately, no. There will be some sleet and freezing rain mix after lunch Sunday, but by then we should have a good amount of snow on the ground.

Snow falling Morganton, NC. Looks to be around 4 inches or so with compaction. Temperature is 32°. Starting to hear reports of power outages, and that only looks to increase with the heavy wet snow. Trees are hanging low already, and we still have a good ways to go.

Temperature should drop throughout the evening aloft as dynamic cooling taking place on the northern side of the low. Yes. UNC-A is 658 m above sea level. The 851 mb level is 883.4 m above UNC-A and 789 mb level is 1488.8 m above UNC-a.

First balloon launch at UNC-Asheville has finished its ascent at 15 UTC. Most of the column is below freezing except at 851 mb (+.06C) and 789 mb (+.11C).

Just posted my final forecast map for this storm.... I remain very concerned about the warm nose for a couple of reasons. In western NC, the warm nose usually seems to move in a little further than expected, and it is not usually at the 850 mb level. It is usually around 750 to 700 mb. Looking at the GFS model, it shows temperatures VERY close to freezing throughout the column in the foothills and western piedmont (Basically areas shaded in yellow). Most winter storms that have this much moisture usually result in sleet or freezing rain at some point. While this does not mean that some areas in the yellow may receive a foot of snow, or more, I do expect sleet to enter into the equation at some point in the triad and Catawba Valley. That is why I hestiated in moving the 10-20 inch line too far outside of the mountains and western facing foothills. For the mountains, I think they will remain all snow for the entire event. I would not be shocked if some areas receive over a foot of snow in parts of the mountains. In the eastern part of the state towards Raleigh is another very difficult forecast because of the warm nose and boundary layer temperatures. I may be underestimating areas west of Raleigh; however, any movement in the rain/snow line to the west is possible. Another area where the cutoff will be sharp is in the Charlotte metro, and this is another area where I may have underestimated totals if the rain/snow line sets up a little further south. I am looking forward to reviewing the data from the UNC-Asheville balloon launches. The first balloon was launched at 15 UTC today and will be launched through Monday at 12 UTC. The information that is gathered from the balloon launch will definitely help us understand how the models are handling the current state of the atmosphere, and it will help nowcast the event as well in western NC. This has been an amazing storm to forecast, and now we are in a nowcasting situation. I look forward to seeing how this storm plays out.

I made some minor changes to my snow totals map. The reasoning is below... I am still concerned about the warm nose; however, I did expand the 10-20 inch range to cover parts of the foothills and the 6-12 inch range to cover most of the Triad. I also included Charlotte in the 2-5 inch range as it appears temperatures might remain around freezing through the event. The Skew-T diagrams show a very difficult forecast for nearly everyone along and east of I-85. For Greensboro, the temperature aloft is very close to 32, which makes forecasting a nightmare. Usually, the warm nose wins out for most locations near I-85, and sometimes it wins out in the Catawba Valley and foothills. So, as for now, I am going to continue to play it conservative near I-85 because of the warm air advection and the potential for sleet instead of snow. It is very difficult to keep the warm air away during any winter storm in the Carolinas, and once the warm nose arrives, it is nearly impossible to remove it. On the flip side, the amount of moisture with this storm is really amazing. Some parts may receive 2 inches equivalent of rain, which is a lot of snow and sleet. While I do not expect the snow ratio to be 10:1, I still expect there will be areas in the mountains, foothills, and even parts of the Catawba Valley or Triad that see a foot of snow. While the verdict is still out, this has the opportunity to be a storm to remember for parts of NC and VA. If you would like to watch my latest video update from this afternoon, here is the link: http://www.wxjordan.com/forecast/12-7-2018-friday-afternoon-winter-weather-update/

My first call map for this storm. It will probably change moving forward, but this is what I expect at the moment. As always, I have a full discussion available at wxjordan.com. The warm nose worries me greatly, so I kept totals lower than most guidance is showing. I also expect the snow to rain ratio to be less than 10:1. Eastern locations will battle surface temperatures and the warm nose as well, that is why the totals are less. Mountains should do very well in this set up, and I would not be shocked to see some locations exceed 20 inches IF it remains all snow.

Usually I do not disagree with the NWS, but the map by GSP is a little confusing. While the general idea of sleet mixing in and lowering snow totals seems possible, it would be area wide and not just limited to the far western portion of NC. I am going to issue my first call map later this evening, and no, it does not match what GSP put out.

The models still show a major and historic winter storm for parts of the Carolinas. The rain/snow line is still in question, and will be for a while, but it appears north of I-85 will see major accumulations. The limiting factor could be a warm nose, which changes the snow to sleet across parts of the piedmont and foothills. Mountains will more than likely remain snow for most of the storm.

This system has the opportunity to be the biggest storm this decade for many in western and possibly central NC. While ratios will likely be under 10:1, the warm nose intrusion still worries me. It will be a few days before we are able to assess the extent of the warm nose and how it affects the estimated snow totals. Most of the time, you can count on the rain/snow line setting up around I-85, but it is impossible to discern where that will happen at the moment. For me, it reminds me of the December 2009 storm, which had a very sharp gradient between rain and snow/sleet. I am keeping it conservative right now on the forecast, but areas in red has the best chance. Confidence decreases as I move into the piedmont. I think areas in yellow will also have a very good storm, it just depends on the warm nose and sleet mixing in.

Very interesting run by the EURO; however, a majority of the operational models has moved the system to the south approximately 40-60 miles towards the NC/SC border, which the EURO and its ensembles has been showing for many days now. The exceptions are the GGEM and the UKMET. This is why I personally believe the most likely place for landfall is around the NC/SC border at the moment. I know many want to focus on what happens after 48-72 hours; however, all the models diverge because the storm is expected to slow down or even stall. This makes any forecast after the 72 hour mark extremely difficult, which is why the current cone of uncertainty is over 450 miles wide...

There is more uncertainty with this track than I prefer. The models all agree that this storm will slow down or stall, which is a forecasting nightmare. With the tropical wave in the Caribbean, uncertainty remains. Eastern and central NC looks to be hit hard with winds and flooding rain; however, I would not let my guard down west of 77 yet and in SC.

This was my greatest fear as well for us in the western Carolinas. It will be interesting to see if other models trend toward the EURO today since the EURO does have support from its ensembles.

Will do, I will finish on Friday at midday and get that diploma on Dec. 14!!! Can you tell I am a little excited?

I will definitely try to, especially in major weather events. I tried to mention most of the southeast last week during the heavy rain storm. Hopefully we will have a lot of wintry weather in the southeast this year, because I love to talk about winter storms!

That will be coming in about two weeks, lol. I graduate at UNCA with atmospheric science degree in weather forecasting on Dec 14.

You can always check out my website, www.wxjordan.com, for weather commentary, especially during interesting weather. I mainly focus on NC weather; however, I will focus on other areas in the SE on large scale storms.