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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    There’s no way they’d do that until the 20z update had ground truth with multiple TW’s and reports. Could see it happening this afternoon given the destabilization but they wouldn’t on a “whim”
  2. DDweatherman
    That’s all of us Kenny.
  3. DDweatherman
    Just saw that and mentioned it to @TSSN+, first supercell
  4. DDweatherman
    I’m mobile but MCD issued, Tor watch likely.
  5. DDweatherman
    Squarely in the MDT area up here on the PA side of the Emmittsburg area, wondering if we’re too north/west to cash in today directly.
  6. DDweatherman
    A fortunate time to be on paternity leave with my newborn here at home, less time to focus on work and more for tracking storms
  7. DDweatherman
    We started that day in no risk/TSTM if I remember right? Even the 8/10/20 derecho in iowa was MDT, should have been high clearly due to the nature of incredibly intense reports.
  8. DDweatherman
    Regular 60% wind doesn’t even get a HIGH risk, though when would there ever be a 60% without having a hatched area. Hard to think we’d ever seen one outside a long tracking derecho
  9. DDweatherman
    Indeed, could be a very interesting afternoon. While you're at it, don't forget your 6 of Hearts ticket at the Emmitsburg FD.
  10. DDweatherman
    Can attest to that out here in Carroll Valley, sun is out pretty nicely this AM. Still those clouds associated with the decaying MCS out to the west, but there are indications we'll get the instability we'd need to produce.
  11. DDweatherman
    I blame Brooklynwx, the seasonal trends are too obvious to favor snow and a favorable boundary vs the opposite. But you’re right. And it’s crazy to think it would take a ton to make that so close you posted a hit.
  12. DDweatherman
    I challenge myself some mornings when I log in to do a thread sweep. The challenge is find one passive aggressive mappy reply to someone about the shitty thread or weather. Undefeated this winter (no surprise). In a winter of no snow, that entertainment is paramount.
  13. DDweatherman
    At least he’d get to go out in snow…haven’t seen it all winter haha
  14. DDweatherman
    Unfortunately CHO is not getting any snow, so I wouldn’t be going there haha. If so, I’d probably be able to stay put in Carroll Valley.
  15. DDweatherman
    I’ve met several people from the forum in real life, so if there’s crime it’s from these guys…not I!
  16. DDweatherman
    Sure, I work remote as well. Let me get done work for the day and drop you a note.
  17. DDweatherman
    I spent last weeks first snow up at Resorts World in Monticello to enjoy some snow. If the euro depiction is right, I’ll be headed back. I have nice comped rooms if anyone wishes to partake.
  18. DDweatherman
    Well there’s also the seasonal trend. We’ve seen similar looks modeled, and have them knocked down in a fashion similar to how guidance has done today. Wouldn’t be fair to say anyone saw it coming unless they were being pessimistic about the winter but we shouldn’t be surprised as our own winter is the analog
  19. DDweatherman
    St Patty’s day window has some potential, would be a lot easier to believe it if it weren’t for our luck season to date.
  20. DDweatherman
    I agree with this part.
  21. DDweatherman
    I think you’re ignoring my point. I actually completely agree with/respect sticking to your guns. I was referring to you holding out hope for storms that were looking bleak all winter…pattern changes, etc. edit to add…no one is going to disagree with a met publicly on thread who says a favorable outcome could be in the cards, it fuels the snow lovers dreams.
  22. DDweatherman
    It absolutely has a look of SER influence at the least. You may not see the same heights of a full blown ridge, but the impact and anomalies give that resemblance in ground truth.
  23. DDweatherman
    You can think what you want and I respect your opinions/input. But eventually It looks weenie-ish.
  24. DDweatherman
    This is in no disrespect to your red tag, but there aren’t many Mets who I can say I’ve never seen poo poo on threats or opportunities. Your posts are always pro snow & pattern, and that’s not lining up with any of the ground truth we’ve had. there’s a difference between optimism and realism. The upstream look on the last few suites isnt making any friends here and the observation is that it would be very difficult to score with that look. There’s no sugar coating it was ugly. Are we giving up, no…but it’s about to be 4th down and long.
  25. DDweatherman
    How many times were we getting bombed in the past with a 995 low over Bristol? Just wondering. Crazy we can’t get a redeveloper outta that as the low is dying off.
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