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DDweatherman

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  1. DDweatherman
    All I’ll say is this… if I had no access to surface maps and just saw pressure, h5 and mid level maps, I’d assume the surface truth would be a nice hit from S PA to N VA. Not a big high pressure dome to constrict the precip shield and I’d think with the vort set up this would be a juicy storm.
  2. DDweatherman
    That’s been my optimism here around ski liberty. Elevation and N/W areas will have a ton of good h7 forcing and great ratios. We’ve seen the deathband set up a lot here. Even last year I did and grabbed 6” in a storm where Westminster had 0.
  3. DDweatherman
    Even more of a moneyshot frame for many of us in the sub
  4. DDweatherman
  5. DDweatherman
    This is the national blend of models, takes into account many of the top global and CAM models along with some other inputs. You can search up on precisely what it is and how weighting works.
  6. DDweatherman
    I have very little to add to this, basically what I’ve been echoing as well. Let’s avoid more south activities from here on out.
  7. DDweatherman
    You don’t think the CTP/LWX border counties have a questionable decision on advisory vs warning at this juncture? We know game time could verify warning level with banding and the maps posted the last few minutes regarding 700 fronto, but there is disrepancy on verifying warning criteria north of BWI over towards FDK/HGR.
  8. DDweatherman
    Historically we’re looking to target -5 to -8 at the growth level, no? And when that coincides with good mid level lift and VV, you can really max the ratios.
  9. DDweatherman
    I’m watching the gradient and seeing where the fronto will align with it. I don’t know that we’ll get a north trend but the northwest edge can definitely perform even without it. We’re gonna go from 1 to 6” somewhere in 40 miles or so.
  10. DDweatherman
    The NAM also closes it off and actually keeps our vort closed further eastward. NAM is a chump model but 3k iteration looks good for a lot of us and isn’t terribly different upstairs.
  11. DDweatherman
    The only way I’d expect it to do that is if the low actually took a south of east vector across the valley. It is a potent s/w and there’s no HP. It’s true that the sampling is light in the area of the lobe in Canada, but no real sign of north movement yet. This is a set up where it can jump 50 miles north last minute, but no indication of that at the moment.
  12. DDweatherman
    Needless to say 30-50 miles will mean a ton at game time for some folks. I’d bet the 1” to 6” gradient will be 40 miles or so on the NW/north edge.
  13. DDweatherman
    Don’t generalize. I’m looking for one no doubt. But I’d take it looking exactly like 6z if we’re being honest. That alone is enough to think the UK is on something.
  14. DDweatherman
    Also, it looks to phase the energy in more than kick it on the GFS. The s/w position at h51 isn’t all that different and really nor are the heights to cause as much ground truth difference. But downstream from this is where the effects are magnified and the big divergence is.
  15. DDweatherman
    Wish I was in front of the computer to break out the other models and compare that feature.
  16. DDweatherman
    I’m going to have an ex wife of my own if this tracking is right.
  17. DDweatherman
    Stop saying that. The CMC and Euro don’t look like the UK. Even the icon isn’t nearly as far south as the UK lol. The euro is maybe the closest global to the GFS as of 12z gfs/6z euro.
  18. DDweatherman
    We definitely liked your posts a lot more when you lived in MoCo. Glad you’re enjoying the retired mountain life though. Get some rest for the MECS later in the week. I don’t favor the UK on this one, mainly because it’s a big discrepancy from the GFS and even the Euro and CMC.
  19. DDweatherman
    What’s funny is if the euro came out before all the models each suite, we probably would barely mention models like the ICON and UK. People who say the Euro “follows” the uk only say it because it comes out after. I’d hardly say the 6z euro is in the Uk camp.
  20. DDweatherman
    A Randy screenshot over a 2 minute span of that model is worth saving if this gives us a MECS. We can all laugh over beers.
  21. DDweatherman
    That’s what to watch for. Though, without much in the way of HP and a strong system moving across the country, don’t discount the last 18-24 hr shift like 1/30/2010 did for the area.
  22. DDweatherman
    For the most part, I’d agree. However, 1” QPF or more in areas in our lowest PWAT month is anomalously juiced. Not to mention, we really should maximize snow growth here, which is more the reason this could overperform totals wise. We’ve heard it from several of our met colleagues certain spots will be 10-12”+ if they are under bands for several hours.
  23. DDweatherman
    It’s 25/11 in my neck of the woods here at peak heating for January, pretty chilly. However, not crazy dry.
  24. DDweatherman
    It’s a little faster, and maybe the slightest bit of de-amping of the vort again that we saw the other day as it gets east. Euro was actually wetter at 6z but GFS is a bit drier.
  25. DDweatherman
    Absolutely. It’s like @psuhoffman said, just stay at the .3” or above qpf line and roll the dice. It’s rare we are snowing in the low 20’s with a strong system driving in from the W/SW optimizing flow with good fronto nearby.
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