SouthCoastMA

I'd roll the dice with a GFS solution, down here. 

I heard these were in nowadays. Let's

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m definitely concerned about a tuck solution. Some people don’t want to talk about it... but it’s definitely possible.

Assume that's the evolution until further notice. Best to stay un-invested 6 days out, or else it will be a long 6 days

So does the 6z euro still show the through that the 18z had, reaching EMA?

I prefer the previous runs. But more changes to come

Between 3.75-4"

We take, then we watch

About 3.25"..maybe we hit 4 with the last round

Hvy sn. 32°

Close to 2.5". Mod/Heavy attm

Coming down good now. Wouldn't be surprised to be near 2" after this band moves through

Closing in on 1"

Almost too perfect. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As an occluded ghost?

Shows 989mb at 168. Stronger than the GFS turd

I'm through 144. I wonder if it comes back north in future frames..like the ICON had

Edit: through 168...looks good to me 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Well that’s the point ...it’s 6 days out.  But hey, OP runs rule I guess. Worry yourselves silly with them if you’d like. 

It's fine. You can still discuss what they show 6 days out, whether favorable or not. 

James' posts of late have harkened back to the old school James that turned every vortmax into 1/22/05. But I can't say I hate it

Just now, MJO812 said:

Uh?

He's not wrong, if you look at the GFS verbatim for SEMass. Obviously, probably lots of changes ahead regardless. 

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Turd in the punch bowl showing up on various models down here... could definitely see this as an interior event.

You need this system translated about 50-100 miles further south to lock in some colder temps.  Otherwise it's an easterly flow blood bath in the lower levels. 

A CMC evolution could work, but most on here would hate it if that transpired

RGEM is nice here, along with the NAM. After a couple beers, I'd take em home

I remember that 2/93 storm. A brooding 10 year old weenie living in Wareham, cursing at the flurries outside knowing the mid and outer cape were shoveling a couple feet. 

Meh on that run verbatim here. Rainy

13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Yeah, northwest winds at the surface push the best bands offshore of the Cape National Seashore.  One of those events where when I was going to Bishop Stang for high school and rode the bus home to Harwich, there would be these huge ocean effect clouds and every time I get over the bridge I would be excited to see if it was snowing at home, turns out the clouds weren't even close and were far offshore.  We need that surface low to move more west.  Again the parameters suggest intense instability with delta Ts greater than 22C, strong low-level convergence, and extremely cold air mass.  Again we need the surface winds to act properly.

Winds look more North or NNW at times..so I could see you getting a couple inches + given the airmass. 

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Man why do I get rain in this scenario?

Easterly winds warm up the BL.