SouthCoastMA

Euro is worse here - like I said 0z last night a pipe dream. 

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah... like I said yesterday... I think the further se tracks take the higher end totals off the table. Ultimately, probably better for us, but worse for the interior that could throw up a 2 footer if this tucks.

Agree.. for every inch I gain they lose 3". 

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You did, and I think it’s becoming clear that’s the case. Doesn’t mean it won’t be a nice system though.

Upside is what the 0z Euro showed for us. That's probably way overdone though, even if the track is closer to the truth. 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Wide right turn and then it comes almost due north to still hit many very good...but that trend is following what we saw on the 00z and 06z EPS.

The wide right turn prior to the hook helps the coastal locales, so pulling for that path. Limits the amount of initial warming

38 minutes ago, BrianW said:

So close...

 

Shift that another 15 miles east

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

At this lead time... with possible mixing concerns, I’d start with 5-10” for this area.

Interior folks are melting..yet we all know where this ends up. I'm going 2-5" here.

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Well it seems the trough misses to the east a bit now.  The deepest of the cold is over the area today.  The upper low is moving through NE CT and NW RI right now in a few hours it will be south of Block Island and this will swing the band southward and out to sea.  I expect the NWS to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory.  I am skeptical about the FEB 1-3 2021 event being snow on the Cape.

They have shifted east, but I think you are still game for 1-2"

The GEFS are more tucked. I'd love to see the Euro verify, but skeptical

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Cold air has arrived and so has the ocean enhanced snows along the trough/surface boundary.  Temp is 30F

Yeah actually starting to stick finally. It was snowing all day but little to show for. Maybe we grab an inch before tomorrow

What is the V16 vs the FV3. I haven't been following the GFS iterations. Also, which one of those is the Para GFS

It's true though. He could've just laughed it off and said he busted. And no one would really care that much. But this makes it worse

Is that the storm that dropped 40"+ in NH when he said there would be less than an inch north of I90

Looks colder than 12z yesterday, which torched. Is the scoast closer to being in the game now? I'd imagine it's borderline still

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah no “fake” qpf skip overs like an op

Why is fake in quotes

We were accumulating earlier when it was a bit heavier but once it let up..it melted. So basically a net 0" OTG lol.

It was probably .25" though before it melted. Just a bit too warm here..with minimally accumulating bursts of mod sn

Yeah if this keeps up might pull off a couple inches. Sticking well at this rate

Finally in a decent band..prob 1/2" hour rate if it keeps up, as others were saying. we'll see. 

This is more like 1" hour now 

A few miles away from the more intense bands. We'll see if they swing down a bit further

The Euro op from 12z 1/26 was too perfect. This is turning into a long duration SECS inland. Maybe MECS ceiling.

3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

NWS BOS is finally getting on board with their snow map and probability maps.  Currently forecasting 2" for CHH, their higher snowfall map 1-10 map shows 5"CHH and 4"PVC while the 6-8" color is just nicking the National Seashore.

I think 2-6" is a reasonable range now given the latest trend. Still 48 hours out though. These things are fickle

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No reason to sweat the details though, but we discuss.

I get not sweating the details, generally. But there's lot less room for error here.

Though if I was inland, I'd be stoked at this current juncture. 

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Verbatim... looks like the dividing line is TAN this run

If there was a tuck, we'd want it about 100mi further south, as a slowly passes the benchmark..this curls up closer to Nantucket. 

It would also help if we had a better airmass in place. The artic air seems to retrograde out of here after this weekend. 

Too tucky too warm for me, but I guess those about 10+ miles inland will like. 

7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Amounts I expect for the next 72 hours:

CHH (8.9")

PVC (11.1")

HYA (5.1")

FMH (2.3")

MVY (1.1")

ACK (4.5")

EWB (2.1")

CHH (1.5")

PVC (1.2")

HYA (1.2")

FMH (.5")

MVY (.6")

ACK (1")

EWB (0)

I sign off on that GFS evolution. ICON is fugly