olafminesaw

Not the worst

At least our friends in New England aren't getting it instead

High shifted West this run. Actually better confluence but it's not enough

6 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

I need some pretty colored model runs to look at and obsess over...

For 90% of us it's all about the dopamine hit of the big model run, not the snow itself (insert change my mind meme format here)

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

First storm is a wash other than some onset ice in CAD regions. I think we all knew it would arrive there eventually - it looked like a miller b from the start. Tough to make those setups work at the front end of the pattern without an anchoring high to the north. 
 

I remain as optimistic as ever about the 8th-12th period. I don’t see any reason to change course on that. Clear signal, just no clear answers, which is fine at a week+.

I agree. If one of us had been in a coma since November and woke up and checked the models, I think they'd be thrilled at what they saw. I do think models backing off from the 8th-12th a bit should give us some pause, but overall the pieces are there to make something happen and that's all we can ask for in a Nina (or near Nina) winter 

I know the  cold had backed off a little on some runs but the GFS is back to something nearly as impressive 

48 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Good news on the 18z Euro. It did trend south from 0z. Lines up fairly close to the 18z GFS

On the one hand -NAO should continue to kick south. On the other hand, the last minute North trend is real. I think this map represents kinda the expected outcome with lots of uncertainty north or south. Of course plenty of opportunity for sleet or ZR south of that snow map

That axis of WAA snow is going to mean business wherever it sets up. 

2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

GFS may be about to cave to the northern solution? Looks a tad higher and less cold air at 108 hours.

For sure, should still be wintry though. 12z was the outlier even for the GFS anyway 

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Much better placement of the high so far on the GFS. Let's see if it still manages to escape to the north

Often these front end thump storms over-perform with a few hours of heavy snow to start as warm air advection creates instability. Something to watch if the storm is far enough south and doesn't get sheared.

Nice to see the same general look for the 1/10 storm from both the Euro and GFS. Of course the Euro has a great lakes low to keep it from being a much bigger storm

Euro AI is really nice for storm #2

More at the end of the run. I think we get at least one more shot after the 10th

18z vs 12z

Multiple waves in the Gulf but they all get squashed. I would give it 24 hours before too much concern.

Euro's cooking out to 216. Moisture spreading over texas

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is going to look a little different this run for the first storm 

Much further south but also, don't have HP in a good place and big beefy system is going to cut big time regardless 

ICON looks much like the UKMET for the 6th. Not the storm to bet the house on, a bit of a thread the needle, but while we wait for clarity on the second storm, we track...

Best case scenario would be a classic overrunning event on the 6th where it remains more flat/frontal. Only downside is someone probably ends up with a lot of ZR. The the coastal comes in a few days later and buries us. My sense though, is that a cutter for the first storm may be a better way to set the stage for the second, where without it cutting there's a chance of more of a threat to the deep south than the Carolina's. Could be wrong though.

FWIW, the UKMet looks really nice for the storm on the 6th