olafminesaw

14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

CMC also has the storm and Euro as well. EURO is warmer though

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Yeah the Euro has the same general look, but seems to just get the energy caught up out west and comes in too late to time the cold

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Looking good. A moderate signal for a very rare (for this time of year) winter storm remains intact for somewhere in the SE within 3/19-22. This is still mere speculation since it is still a ways out (6-9 days), but the ducks are on the pond at least and they're not flying away. There seems to be at least a small chance of something major wintrywise and a moderate chance for something nonmajor.

Remarkable consistency from the GFS at this range. Somehow I think we have about as good a chance as we've had all winter with this one. Which on the one hand is remarkable given the date, but on the other hand is to say, regardless of how much snow the 6z GFS and future runs may dump, it's really a long shot. Just keeping ducks on the pond is something!

What a forecasting nightmare. Fun to watch from the outside, with no skin in the game.

RAH agressive for once (when the stakes are low I suppose). Matches up pretty well with the HRRr's depiction (I think it would be cold enough for some stickage in grassy areas)

The HRRR has been trending warmer aloft, but still has a decent period of heavy kitchen sink tomorrow morning.

Here is a comparison of the 0z actual sounding to what the HRRR has. Seems to have a good handle on things.

Brutally close

The warm nose is probably the biggest argument against snow in the Piedmont. Kinda hard to predict to what degree the mid-levels will cooperate and whether there is enough low level cold to be sleet if not

Freddy is about to make landfall if it hasn't already. Just East of the city of Quelimane (probably currently just inside the eye)

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 The 6Z GEFS/0Z GEPS has a moderate/modest Miller A ish Gulf storm signal for late 3/19 through 3/20, but that's nearly in fantasyland. Should there be one, it could get interesting for some areas (especially NC) for wintry precip ~3/20 considering how cold the preceding airmass might be. There have been some wintry precip events during 3/19-21 looking back in history.

 More immediately, there's a good chance for snow falling for part of tomorrow for especially northern NC! It would be a challenge for it to stick but not impossible in some areas for some stickage.

 

I made a thread since, it's the only short range threat all winter 

Screw it. I am going to will this into existence. 

Dynamics are actually looking rather impressive at the moment on hires models. Unclear whether the column will be cold enough, but come on now. let's see some flakes people.

46 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Freddy is crawling into this latest landfall. Some modeling allows the cyclone to stall just inland only to re-emerge off the coast (again) with another period of reintensification. Need to go back over ACE numbers, but Freddy may have even surpassed Ioke for all-time highest now.

This city is pretty close to the center, a very tight core! (Got this on windy)

NWS calling for rain/snow mix Sunday morning. I'm rather agnostic on the matter. But a little white rain would be something at least.

28 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said:

I wonder when the last major winter event in GA was in Mid to Late March ?

Major by GA standards anyway:

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Thank god someone finally brought up sun angle

Oh my gosh. I think we made it through a whole winter without it being brought up (or warm temps leading up to an event). That at least is one good thing about this winter!

58 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I actually disagree with this. I feel like models have been relatively locked in from inside 7-8 days. We haven’t had anything besides the ULL low that made it inside medium range as a threat. Beyond 7-8 days as has been and, for the foreseeable future, will always be fantasy land. The only reason people strayed into fantasy land this year was there was literally nothing interesting to talk about inside the fantasy range. Overall though, I think models did a great job inside a week, the only issue being they collectively and correctly eroded weenie hope every run once anything got into that range. 
 

The major SSW event was really the only thing that kept this forum entertaining for the last month bc there was just nothing else going to give us hope in the sh*t patten we were stuck in, so all of GA’s posts were much welcomed even if nothing really panned out as far as sensible weather impacts for our region. Winter 2022-23 will forever go down as the winter that never happened (I think I saw RDU finished with 22 of 28 days above average in February)

That's fair. I feel like it's really hard to gauge objectively honestly. Some storms that, for example were showing a major snowstorm for Pittsburgh 5 days out, shifted to Minnesota/northern Wisconsin. In this scenario, it feels like the models got it right, but that's just because we got rain either way. It does seem like the models struggled with temps though. A lot of storms went from showing a decent region of snow in the cold sector of the storm, but this shrunk as it got into the medium range.

26 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Oh, GFS, you won't get me this time!!!

 

Temps in the upper 30s at night time? Moderate rates? Perfect track required? What could go wrong?

I gotta say though, the mountains are certainly still in the game. The 0z EPS and 6z GEFS both have a fairly strong signal around the 17th/18th. 

If nothing else, perhaps this season has beaten through our collective thick skulls that 5 day+ op runs are meaningless.

At least until December, when collective amnesia sets in and that weenie map crack becomes irresistible again 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The concern for cold lovers, which I think is valid, is that the EPS runs from Feb 27th through 0Z March 3rd were mainly cold in the SE early on March 11th after turning colder on March 10th. But since the 12Z March 3rd run, they've been near normal or warmer for March 10th through early on March 11th. The latest EPS runs don't get it cold til either later on March 11th or on March 12th. So, a 1-2 day delay from the coldest runs.
 
 The GEFS was slower to consistently make it cold by then but became that way by the March 1st runs with colder by March 10th. The GEFS' coldest runs were 12Z/18Z of March 2nd. The March 3rd runs were not as cold but still on the cooler side for early on March 11th. Then they suddenly became much warmer (mainly AN) starting with the 0Z March 4th run and have been that way since. The most recent GEFS runs don't make it cold til either March 12th or 13th, a longer delay than the EPS...2-3 day delay vs the coldest runs.

 Is this another kicking the can or just a little delay? Any educated guesses? We'll know eventually. Aren't forecasting discussions fun? 
 

 For those interested, go to Tropical Tidbits and look at the maps valid for 6Z on March 11th on the Feb 27th through 0Z/6Z of March 5th runs and see for yourselves as they're still there.

Seems to me like we keep getting lows that cut to the great lakes, and kick back the arrival of cold and in turn, lead to another bad storm track.

About a 20 degree gradient across Guilford county right now. Winds blowing from the South in Alamance and NNE in Rockingham.

Just now, mattie g said:

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but at 150 am I seeing an immovable object clashing (block) with an unstoppable force (the western energy)?

Yeah, hopefully something the models can resolve with a little more lead time. Just two major players on the board!

Looking pretty good, cold+moisture = a chance, even with climo against us

Perhaps a storm threat sooner rather than later?