olafminesaw

I guess I'm not complaining, but lol 

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This was a huge forecasting miss in the rainfall department. The watches hoisted explicitly stated 1-3” with isolated totals to 5”. We ended up seeing widespread 4-7” totals with isolated amounts to nearly 1 foot! At least the areas were correctly identified from a watch standpoint but there is a huge difference between a watch for 1-3” of rain and isolated flash flooding and what happened including historic river flooding. This needs to be reexamined as to why forecasts were so grossly off for rainfall totals. Tropical systems are generally “easy” to forecast in this department as the are organized and have many runs of computer models analyzing ongoing convection so you don’t usually misses of this caliber with an organized tropical system

The Hires NAM did a good job (blind squirrel). I can't recall any other tropical system that had the same kind of totals that didn't feature either a stall for a significant period of time or some kind of mesoscale training thunderstorms far away from the center. Most of the precip fell within a 6-12 hour period and featured the core of the TS

Precip departures For June:

GSO -.25

RAH -.42

FAY -.15

Charlotte +1.39

Greenville +1.88

Asheville +2.16

Wilmington +.67

89/73 with not a pop up in sight 

A bunch of stationary storms parked right over 95, would make for an interesting drive 

Also this mornings sounding smashed the all time record for ML cape for the 12z soundings data set at GSO: 3,632 vs the old record of 3,588 set in 1983. In fact only four soundings have ever exceeded 3,000

Current ML lapse rates at 8+ and ML cape around 4500 near Fayetteville along with a touch of shear. Gotta watch out for popcorn storms with nasty microbursts, especially in the sand hills.

Already at 88/73. That Excessive heat warning may be needed after all at this rate 

GSO has managed to record at least a trace of precip for the past 15 consecutive days going back to June 5th. Somehow that amounted to a MTD precip anomaly of only +.16, with the highest single day total being .64. Raleigh is at +1.02, Fayetteville +1.04, Asheville +1.28, Charlotte +.86, Danville -.49, Wilmington +.31

28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Erick appears to be going through nuclear intensification, not just rapid lol. That’s the sat presentation of at least a 3

Likely to be the first major hurricane to make landfall in Mexico in the month of June for either basin. Also an unusual track for the time of year with only handful of hurricanes to ever have made landfall along that stretch of coastline this early.

Sounds like Friday could be a decent severe day

Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
   Pattern amplification will occur Friday as one shortwave trough
   progresses from the Mid-South to the southeast Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic
   coast, in advance of another wave digging southward over the Great
   Lakes.  An associated surface cyclone will develop
   east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic late Friday and to the
   southern New England coast by Saturday morning, while a trailing
   cold front crosses the Gulf coast, north FL and the southeast
   Atlantic coast.  Within cloud breaks the warm sector will consist of
   afternoon temperatures near or above 80 F and boundary-layer
   dewpoints in the 60s, which will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg and
   minimal convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon.  Increasing
   midlevel flow with time and forcing for ascent along and just ahead
   of the front will support storm initiation with the potential for
   storm clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging
   winds, large hail and a few tornadoes.  If wave timing and
   thermodynamic profiles remain favorable, some portion of this area
   may warrant an upgrade in later updates.

This cell headed towards Madison is trouble 

Entering the time of year when below average temps are very much welcome. Seems like a cool stretch is likely in about 10 days

Classic convergence. It's a good thing that LP has remained pretty weak

This year has really been marked by notable dry stretches

It's awfully quiet out there!

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

6Z gfs is coldest run in several days for April 9th and colder than other current models making it a cold outlier:

If we don't manage to reach freezing this spring it would tie the earliest lasts freeze on record. Dropping to freezing in this next cold snap would be right around average, so I would say it shouldn't take "Barney" cold to get there. Models sometimes under do cold from radiative cooling, especially for the Sandhills, which typically would come the morning after the coldest day on models.

51 minutes ago, suzook said:

I am shocked at how quiet it is here. I understand its all about the snow, but severe weather is no joke. 3rd Tornado warning in my area just this year so far. 2 of the warnings had 2 tornadoes on the ground within 5 miles of me. I am assuming the severe line dissipated when it got close to the coast?

It really busted bad in NC. Just seems like we have less active posters in GA & SC

9 hours ago, gman said:

This system over performed, giving me 2.3” at my house. 

Wow! We have certainly entered the time of year when precip distribution tends to vary considerably across the region. .11 for GSO

Precip drying up east of the Apps? Who'd have thunk

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

WRAL already putting out their weather alert day for Monday.

Do the local stations actually determine that,or do they rely on whatever service they get all their products from? I just noticed a lot of channels across the SE use this designation along with the same graphics, so wasn't sure what all that entails

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Is there going to be a chilly snap during the upcoming Masters just as has occurred in some past Masters? Be ready to break out  the coats one last time then just in case?

@dsauror others have an opinion?

The GEFS is hinting at a cool stretch around that time. 

2 hours ago, jburns said:

Low of 31º, high of 67ª.  I like it.

I agree! Perfect temps for not having to run the HVAC at all, while also getting to enjoy a nice warm afternoon