olafminesaw

About as strong of wording as you will see say 6

   The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass
   modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with
   multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well
   above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed
   layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the
   troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe
   weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic
   features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a
   confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential
   and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15
   percent area. 

6 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Checking in from Vermont, how are you all doing my friends?

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Not bad, the warm sunny weather is making me not too jealous of the snow headed your way. I have made peace with summer and hope for some good thunderstorms this spring

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Dogwoods, maples, and lot of other are blooming here.  It's amazing how the grass has went from brown to green and growing in days.

My weeds sure are happy! Haven't really had any significant drought here since moving here in 2018. I like the rainy periods this time of year. If nothing else, it keeps the house comfortable without having to run the AC

29 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Headed for the 4th warmest February on record for the US.  If AI can improve our long range modeling then I'm all for it cuz the CPC Seasonals didn't show this coming.  I'm at the point where I don't trust a forecast whether it is from the CPC, WPC, NOAA, NWS or any other acronym you want to toss out. They're all wrong.  I'm seriously going to dig out the Farmer's Almanac this afternoon and see if that was even close.   

Pretty much in line with what everyone else was saying:

The only interesting weather in the CONUS upcoming is the potent front in about 5 days. The GFS has about 500 miles to go from single digits in Wyoming to near 80 degrees in central Kansas. Of course it will not deliver meaningful arctic air to this side of the country. Because why would it? 

36 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

We didn’t have any snow December 92 and January February and March 93 until the blizzard happed. 

Looking at Greensboro obs on weatherspark there was two freezing rain events in December, one freezing  rain even in January one light snow ob in January, and a light snow ob and mixed bag event in February. Obviously none of the snow or sleet actually accumulated. But two instances of mood flakes that year 

Some signs of a few non-accumulating pity flakes Saturday evening from the ULL. The really shocking thing is we haven't even had more than 30 minutes of frozen precip of any kind during the snow drought. I'm sure the same can't be said of the 90s drought.

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Without further ado folks after following this particular period with lots of enjoyment for several weeks, an important milestone has arrived for me for 2/18-9.

 

Also, I currently see no threats down the road at least as of this point. There are no longer any encouraging signs and also it is getting late. This may be it for this winter. 

You'll be back on March 12th, when the Pacific finally relaxes and we're on our way to 33 and rain. Just you wait!

Sigh...

26 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

In fact the 18z GEFS looks like the 12z EURO FWIW

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Eh, the mean is a near perfect track and still, the probabilities aren't great. The overall setup is still rather poor. Still, we might luck into something 

May happy hour be happy for once. Hard to stomach the big three indicies being favorable, including a 3 std dev negative AO resulting in the same old la Nina pattern. But I prefer to focus on the fact that we have a storm to track that isn't dead yet.

Average out the 12z and 18z and you get great storm for many. Good run considering suppression from the EPS

Also of note, the models are trending towards a quick reload after the system to not really deviate from a favorable pattern. Of course we will be fighting an uphill battle with climo at that stage but it's also not necessarily do or die for the PD storm

The GFS looks much more like the EPS than  the Euro OP. Sustained source of cold air aloft and multiple opportunities for wave development in the WAA region. Sometimes moisture can over perform in these setups far away from any kind of low pressure development.

Knoxville scored big from WAA moisture last month even though they were thought to be on the dry side of the storm. Ideally we need to have the northern stream energy not interfere too much for this to work.

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Let’s see how 12Z runs go. Not starting off well with the ICON, which has more Pacific flow than recent runs through 144.

To me GFS looks much better through 168. Better stream interaction. 

11 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

That northern vort being stretched and strung out over the top will never work.

A piece of it needs to dig and phase, like the GFS was showing yesterday or it needs to do what the Euro did last night and let the northern piece swing through ahead of our wave. 

This lowers heights in front of the storm and let's our CAD high anchor in, and gives the stj wave more room to amplify some. The GFS and Euro are way apart on the timing of the southern wave with the GFS being over 24 hours faster. They may even be keying in on different pieces of energy. Long ways to go...

Last night's EPS had like 3-4 waves it's trying to resolve. Kinda a good thing because with a big amped up storm we always flip to rain/ice. Moisture riding the boundary is our path to a big storm as yesterday's 12z GFS depicted. Having to rely on a well timed phase does make me nervous, but that's just winter in the South

Interesting how the ensembles have consistently much more suppressed than the OP. Thankfully the Euro is nearly in range and can hopefully give us a somewhat clearer picture.

2 minutes ago, weatherfide said:

Where can you go to get all of them? WeatherBell?

Yeah not really a great place that's free. Weather.us has limited individual member maps as well as plume graphs for a specified location. 

9 minutes ago, weatherfide said:

I'm looking at the College of DuPage GEFS individual members and I'm not seeing the same results that you mention. Really not much showing up for the deep south at all. What source are you using for the GEFS member outputs?

College of dupage doesn't have all the members. I think it's just one member skewing the mean. There's one that drops 2 feet of snow on Montgomery Alabama. 

The major theme from the ensembles is suppression for the storm around the 19th. Seems to be plenty of cold air though, which would yield a very good result with a few ticks more amped, as the GFS lends credence to. Now is the time for patience, can't control what happens.

Does anyone have upper level data for February 2015? This was an El Nino year which could be a good analog for what a good outcome might look like.Started out warm and ended very cold. One big storm for the northern half of NC and a couple smaller storms.

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

Pattern between 2/14 and 2/25 still looks really nice.

It does look pretty good in theory. Ensembles leave on the table the general evolution we've faced. Cutter on the front side, cold air gets established but too dry and HP keeps waves from developing in the Gulf, pattern relaxes and the firehose starts back up but there isn't any blocking high to lock cold in place. Still, overall the best window we've seen all winter with cold and moisture linking up on at least some guidance.

Sometimes I feel like long range tracking is a bit like surfing. You're waiting for that perfect wave to come along, big enough, breaks at the right angle and where you're at. Sometimes you look off in the distance and see what looks like the perfect wave. It's all coming together. But at the last minute you realize it's just a swell that doesn't really break, or it peters out. Some days you're out there and wave after wave just doesn't break the way you need it too. You think you're unlucky at first, but after a while you realize, without a shift of the wind, or moving to a different location, all the waves are going to break that way.

We need that proverbial wind shift and if it never comes, we all need to move to buffalo.

The GEFS members that have snow transfer and develope a new low near the coast which gets pulled inland by the interaction with the original low. A messy setup that could work in theory, but can't think of an analog where this worked out. The OP kinda has this evolution, it's just that the system gets pulled OTS to quickly, which would be the more plausible solution.

Pretty much in line with what I would expect with this system. A long shot but realistically possible