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Posts posted by olafminesaw

  1. Pretty impressive low at GSO of 24. It was 27 at 4:30 and 4:45 and dropped 3 degrees and back up in those 15 minutes. Noticeable cold pockets north of the airport as well on my way to work this morning, about 3-4 degrees colder than near the airport.

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  2. 4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

    While I agree I don’t see CAT 3 on this; the Gulf Stream here is only 1-10 miles off shore  from West Palm to Ft Pierce so I can see it strengthen to possibly a CAT 2

    The gulf stream isn't really any warmer than the water Nicole is currently traversing. The warmest waters it will cross will be just before reaching the Bahamas 

    cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1 (1).png

  3. 21 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

    HWRF has landfall near the Space Coast as a 963 mb tropical storm.

    It seems like regardless of how much the pressure drops, it's maxing out between 60-75 mph. Any pressure drops below 980 are primarily expanding the wind field 

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  4. 36 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

    A little temperature increase when going over the center, maybe an attempt to form an inner core despite the mid satellite presentation.


    The HWRF doesn't begin to build a tropic core until this evening. I presume this will occur once Nicole begins to turn back to the south over warmer water, as long as dry air doesn't inhibit development 


  5. 9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

     The recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little before 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC position for 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different?

    It appears another recon flight will be in the storm in 4-5 hours. It will be interesting to see if the LLC continues to move south or moves back to the W or NW in that timeframe.

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