olafminesaw

I-85 is lava. Seems mid-level dry air should keep rain totals in check for the triad. The HRRR depicts this well, with around .5" and 1-2" just to our south.

Top gusts so far: 60 mph Wilmington, 67 mph Wrightsville beach, & a rather suspect looking 77 mph gust at sunny point. Meanwhile, even along the coastline only gusts in the mid 30s south of Bald Head.

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The impending shear impacts are mitigated due to storm relative motion. As long as Francene maintains a significant easterly component to track, that should maintain the case--more or less steady state in terms of surface pressure. I believe the weakening will coincide with the forecasted northerly recurve. The key of course, is when that exactly occurs, before or after landfall...

Yeah I thought that was pretty well established a couple days ago, that a stronger storm could actually be enhanced by what on paper is shear. You think more of a net neutral impact overall though?

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Eh....I verify based on official intensity. No doubt in my mind we aren't seeing sustained 90mph sustained winds anywhere on land...even 75, I doubt.

Yeah probably sustained 50-60, gusts to 90 for the most part

Almost cat 2 per the 5 am update!

Hmm...

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Upper divergence

Lower convergence

A well ventilated blob! I wonder if this feature imparts a bit of a Fujiwara effect and pulls Francine a little more East.

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It need to get rid of that blob of convection to the NE and work out that dry air. There might be a small window for it to really pick up steam. The eastward ticks are sort of interesting for NoLa.

Also gives it more time over water, and may even strengthen somewhat over the Bayou

Trying to rotate hot towers around the center, has a chance to push the dry air out of the core if it continues

A bit concerning with respect to surge potential especially if this thing comes in a little stronger. Thankfully, for the most part, coastal LA does not build in the flood zones.

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s the kind of signal where the right track could cause extremely efficient ventilation. Or, any deviation from that “ideal” track blasts the system right before landfall. 

Things look like they’re a go for intensification later, and it’s kind of impressive we’re getting this with the rest of the Gulf under high shear. ULAC saves the day I guess. 

What is ideal track? A bit right of the current NHC track?

Not your typical  hurricane!

Looks like the GFS takes the energy from 90L across Mexico into the Pacific where it becomes a hurricane, making landfall in Mexico before crossing back into the Gulf and developing into a hurricane again.

No doubt a cat 5 now. Probably went through some kind of eyewall restructuring over night

Some of the wildest banding I've ever seen. Well on it's way to cat 5

What a beaut! Looking a bit annular. Looks stronger than 105 mph...

Huge corrections from all models. Now many models have it slowing down prior to landfall which may give it an opportunity to go through ERC before landfall 

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Hone has clearly organized further overnight and now has a clearing eye with multiple CBs rotating around it. Radar is also telling. The hurricane appears to have intensified. It will be interesting to see how the flow over the Big Island affects and influences Hone's structure. The Lee side of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea's massifs will most likely have some type of deformation on the core as the hurricane positions SW of the island. In fact, that may already be occurring as the eyewall appears pinched in the NW quadrant. Also, keep in mind that the radar beam is blocked to the SW to N due to Mauna Loa.

At GSO we are at 82 hours and counting with a dew point below 60. That is the 7th longest streak all time for the month of August. 

Already seeing gusts of 50-65 mph across the island 

31 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Getting a bit of a "halficane" look

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

It does not look very pretty on satellite

Not a nice fresh delicious cinnamon roll. The one that's been sitting in the case at Panera all morning, growing steadily more stale.

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ernesto looks fine to me. Solid CDO with an eyewall that was showing up on radar prior to leaving range. Wind field is a little broad but I don’t see why folks think the structure is poor for a “minimal” hurricane. 

Fair enough. I feel like we've been spoiled by a lot of RI hurricanes lately