Jump to content


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by olafminesaw

  1. 37 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

    Possibly a biggie hitting the east coast next week. While it won’t mean much for us outside of the mountains, hopefully this can lay down a nice snow pack for a wedge to feed off of down the not so distant road. :ski:

    Definitely not out of the question that the system could bring snow showers to the area, most likely just in the high elevations, but you never know with the cold air mass aloft. It will probably be too dry east of the mountains with that storm track though, after the frontal passage 

    • Like 3
  2. 1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

    Activate rain shields

    qpf_acc-imp.us_ma (2).png

    It's a bit of an outlier, but it does seem we will only have opportunities on 2-3 quick moving systems over the next 10 days. Some are promising however and it seems that rainfall is most likely to fall in the .75-1.75" range in that timeframe based on ensemble consensus.

  3. 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    Latest GFS has trended the way of every other front this fall and it really dries up east of the mountains. Rainfall amounts of <1/2” pretty much for everyone in drought area and much of NC and upstate SC <1/4”. Canadian and EURO still look wet but definitely do not like the GFS splitting the energy over the area. I’ve seen that story play out at this range a time or 5 since September 

    Models have trended drier for sure. But the Euro ensembles have good agreement on .5-1.5" of rain. The GEFS is more all over the place and opens the door for the front to dry out entirely as you allude to. But there's a strong cluster in the .75-1" range. I think we can feel pretty confident in .5"+, which is not enough but a win relative to what we've  gotten the past 6 weeks or so


    qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_ma (2).png

  4. No meaningful rain on the GFS in the next 10 days. The Euro brings through a frontal system next Wednesday that drops .5-1". Unfortunately we've seen how these fronts have dried out as they've approached. Hopefully we get a pattern change around or just after Thanksgiving. I am glad we are stuck in this pattern now and not in mid January!

    • Like 2
  5. 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    When is this above average El Niño rainfall supposed to start? It is bone dry. We have received a total of 0.18” the last 4 weeks from one rainfall 

    Here is a comparison of temp/precip departures depending on enso state. It seems that El Nino skus more wet in the winter months vs in the fall months. Although El Nino years have reasonable odds of being dry as well



    • Like 2
  • Create New...