olafminesaw

37 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Possibly a biggie hitting the east coast next week. While it won’t mean much for us outside of the mountains, hopefully this can lay down a nice snow pack for a wedge to feed off of down the not so distant road. 

Definitely not out of the question that the system could bring snow showers to the area, most likely just in the high elevations, but you never know with the cold air mass aloft. It will probably be too dry east of the mountains with that storm track though, after the frontal passage 

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Widespread teens

 

The Low of 16 at Sanford is really impressive. Could be a record for the month of November, but I can't find that data.

GSO dropped into the teens for the first time since the day after Christmas 2022. The average first date for the low to drop below twenty is Dec 14th

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Activate rain shields

It's a bit of an outlier, but it does seem we will only have opportunities on 2-3 quick moving systems over the next 10 days. Some are promising however and it seems that rainfall is most likely to fall in the .75-1.75" range in that timeframe based on ensemble consensus.

Just for kicks and giggles, I present last night's Euro control

I love days like this every once in a while, a chilly all day rain. The 12z HRRR indicates we should receive 2-3" across the triad

Starting to finally look like a wet period upcoming 

2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

A long way out but the EPS has had something the last 3 model runs around the 29/30 time period...  snow perhaps.

An Interesting look at the end of the 12z Euro run 

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Latest GFS has trended the way of every other front this fall and it really dries up east of the mountains. Rainfall amounts of <1/2” pretty much for everyone in drought area and much of NC and upstate SC <1/4”. Canadian and EURO still look wet but definitely do not like the GFS splitting the energy over the area. I’ve seen that story play out at this range a time or 5 since September 

Models have trended drier for sure. But the Euro ensembles have good agreement on .5-1.5" of rain. The GEFS is more all over the place and opens the door for the front to dry out entirely as you allude to. But there's a strong cluster in the .75-1" range. I think we can feel pretty confident in .5"+, which is not enough but a win relative to what we've  gotten the past 6 weeks or so

The first extreme drought since 2017 has been issued for some of NC's SW counties. Next Tuesday's system is looking promising for rainfall, especially for the mountains. it looks like a long duration rainfall which will help prevent runoff as well

No meaningful rain on the GFS in the next 10 days. The Euro brings through a frontal system next Wednesday that drops .5-1". Unfortunately we've seen how these fronts have dried out as they've approached. Hopefully we get a pattern change around or just after Thanksgiving. I am glad we are stuck in this pattern now and not in mid January!

Some signs of moisture in the 4-10 day period 

On the other hand...

More rain to come after the run ends. This would certainly be a drought buster 

58 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Still interesting 

Flashbacks to last December 

GSO reporting light rain and 33% humidity

Moisture moving in on radar but dry air bleeding down from VA is going to win out. 60/39 with dew point dropping and temp remaining stable. I don't see us getting more than a few raindrops

BWI: 27.3"

DCA: 22.1"

IAD: 30.9"

RIC: 11.3"

SBY: 9.7"

Weathergami! Pretty fun concept

Rain shield activated 

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

When is this above average El Niño rainfall supposed to start? It is bone dry. We have received a total of 0.18” the last 4 weeks from one rainfall 

Here is a comparison of temp/precip departures depending on enso state. It seems that El Nino skus more wet in the winter months vs in the fall months. Although El Nino years have reasonable odds of being dry as well

I love this new graphic from IEM. Great way to visualize an entire month.

63/16 at GSO, a RH of 16%. This is right around the average lowest RH for the entire year.  

Maybe something for the mountains to watch