olafminesaw

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Posts posted by olafminesaw


  1. 1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

    I know the Euro isn’t a hi-res CAM. Just didn’t know if maybe there was a hi-res CAM produced in Europe. They’re better than us at making cars, airplanes, and I would assume weather models too.

    If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though

    • Like 1

  2. If there's any consolation, it's that the primary threat area is centered over the least populous part of that region. Of course all those bigger cities in the moderate/enhanced are certainly quite at risk as well, but a silver lining nonetheless


  3. 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

    I honestly don't know.  It's basically a coin toss.  Lets see how CAM outcomes play out throughout the rest of the day.

    My gut tells me that prolific tornado outbreaks are always going to be less likely than a "bust" with this kind of spread in CAM solutions, because there are many pathways to a bust and few to a prolific outbreak. 

    I think statistical analysis is an underutilized tool in meteorology. In any case of extreme weather, the distribution is skewed right. I figure in setups like these the distribution drops off to the right side of the curve very quickly because of how fragile they are. Extreme environments have a very narrow envelope of CIN, or they fail spectacularly, one what or the other

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  4. 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

    Personally, I was surprised with the large moderate area for NC/SC.  I knew there would be a moderate area, but I was surprised at the northern extent of it.  
    I think this is where experience with CAD comes into play.  It will truly be a question of how far north and west the CAD erodes during the day...   The moderate area looks to align with your typical ice/rain border in winter weather. 

    Especially with rain chances throughout the day and no sun. Definitely reminds me of april 19 2019 (although I think that setup was a lot more CAPE dependent)


  5. 2 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

    While looking at various stations this morning, I noticed a wide variation in temperatures over a short distance.  I’m 36.1 while airport is 29.  One station near me is 35.8 while another is 30.9.

    Definitely a classic case of radiation cooling with clear skies and calm winds. Low spots significantly cooler. Made for some heavy frost and icy spots from runoff. Today and tomorrow are classic coat in the morning, t-shirt in the afternoon weather.

     

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