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Posts posted by olafminesaw

  1. 6 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

    At 1155 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brunswick, or 9 miles north of Slater, moving northeast at 70 mph.

    These storms are moving fast.  Going to make chasing rather challenging for those who go out.

    My understanding is that fast storm motion can inhibit tornado formation as the updraft is continually being disrupted. If my memory serves anything over about 50 mph is when this starts coming into play. Just something to watch, but there are certainly exceptions to this rule, as fast moving tornadoes are definitely a thing.

    • Like 1
  2. 9 minutes ago, WXMan42711 said:



     Mesoscale Discussion 0390
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023
       Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern
       Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri
       Concerning...Outlook upgrade 
       Valid 311537Z - 311630Z
       SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA,
       northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a
       categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook.
       DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30%
       probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental
       conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential
       for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes
       across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far
       northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for
       more information.
       ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023


    The only other time a tor driven high risk was issued for that region was also in March. Does anyone know what date that was? I don't know my severe weather history all that well.

  3. 8 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

    Major expansion of the moderate risk on the new outlook 

    About doubled, both in terms of population and area. Also the Enhanced pushed well East all the way to Ohio. 

    These threats that effect large areas with the mod/enh tend to be a bigger deal than a small high risk.

    • Like 1
  4. 30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

    Each region has always had their own threads, so doesn’t matter much in the end.


    I wish the mods could merge the threads from each sub, so it linked to the same place. Really mostly just applies to severe, but it's super annoying to keep up with two threads at once.

    • Like 2
  5. 3 hours ago, southmdwatcher said:

    SPC has upgraded central Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi and Alabama to a moderate risk for tornadoes and hail for today and tonight.

    That escalated quickly!

  6. 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    I love the annual morality debate between those wanting it to be warm and those wanting to hang onto cold in spring 

    Before DST root for cold in case of snow. Then root for warmth until Mother's day when we root for cooler than average temps until Halloween. 

    • Like 5
  7. 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

    Hard to ignore the signal on the GFS. Unfortunately the CMC and EURO have been warmer with rain. Need 1 of them to jump on board.

    Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

    CMC isn't far off, but wish there were some suppressed, cold/dry solutions from the globals.

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