Jump to content


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by olafminesaw

  1. The CPC released the updated summer forecast last week. Probabilities below for the Piedmont:


    Highest 10% of years: 14.3%

    Above average: 45.3%

    Near average: 34.7%

    Below average: 19.9%

    Lowest 10% of years: 3.6%



    Highest 10% of years: 15.4%

    Above average: 43.6%

    Near average: 32.5%

    Below average: 23.8%

    Lowest 10% of years: 5.8%

  2. About as strong of wording as you will see say 6

       The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass
       modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with
       multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well
       above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed
       layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the
       troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe
       weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic
       features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a
       confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential
       and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15
       percent area. 
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  3. 6 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

    Checking in from Vermont, how are you all doing my friends?

    Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

    Not bad, the warm sunny weather is making me not too jealous of the snow headed your way. I have made peace with summer and hope for some good thunderstorms this spring

    • Like 1
  4. 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

    Dogwoods, maples, and lot of other are blooming here.  It's amazing how the grass has went from brown to green and growing in days.

    My weeds sure are happy! Haven't really had any significant drought here since moving here in 2018. I like the rainy periods this time of year. If nothing else, it keeps the house comfortable without having to run the AC

  5. 29 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

    Headed for the 4th warmest February on record for the US.  If AI can improve our long range modeling then I'm all for it cuz the CPC Seasonals didn't show this coming.  I'm at the point where I don't trust a forecast whether it is from the CPC, WPC, NOAA, NWS or any other acronym you want to toss out. They're all wrong.  I'm seriously going to dig out the Farmer's Almanac this afternoon and see if that was even close.  :angry: 

    Pretty much in line with what everyone else was saying:


  6. The only interesting weather in the CONUS upcoming is the potent front in about 5 days. The GFS has about 500 miles to go from single digits in Wyoming to near 80 degrees in central Kansas. Of course it will not deliver meaningful arctic air to this side of the country. Because why would it? 

  7. 36 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

    We didn’t have any snow December 92 and January February and March 93 until the blizzard happed. 

    Looking at Greensboro obs on weatherspark there was two freezing rain events in December, one freezing  rain even in January one light snow ob in January, and a light snow ob and mixed bag event in February. Obviously none of the snow or sleet actually accumulated. But two instances of mood flakes that year 

  8. 7 hours ago, GaWx said:

    Without further ado folks after following this particular period with lots of enjoyment for several weeks, an important milestone has arrived for me for 2/18-9.


    Also, I currently see no threats down the road at least as of this point. There are no longer any encouraging signs and also it is getting late. This may be it for this winter. 

    You'll be back on March 12th, when the Pacific finally relaxes and we're on our way to 33 and rain. Just you wait!

    • Like 1
    • Haha 4
  9. 26 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

    In fact the 18z GEFS looks like the 12z EURO FWIW

    Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

    Eh, the mean is a near perfect track and still, the probabilities aren't great. The overall setup is still rather poor. Still, we might luck into something 

    sn10_024h-prob01.us_ma (6).png

    • Haha 1
  10. The GFS looks much more like the EPS than  the Euro OP. Sustained source of cold air aloft and multiple opportunities for wave development in the WAA region. Sometimes moisture can over perform in these setups far away from any kind of low pressure development.

    Knoxville scored big from WAA moisture last month even though they were thought to be on the dry side of the storm. Ideally we need to have the northern stream energy not interfere too much for this to work.

    • Like 3
  11. 11 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

    That northern vort being stretched and strung out over the top will never work.IMG_1050.thumb.png.33c7b07bc954d2b1e9645826c57c7e43.png

    A piece of it needs to dig and phase, like the GFS was showing yesterday or it needs to do what the Euro did last night and let the northern piece swing through ahead of our wave. IMG_1051.thumb.png.ce4dbbd5bae85499f5a885a7e2f8c236.png

    This lowers heights in front of the storm and let's our CAD high anchor in, and gives the stj wave more room to amplify some. The GFS and Euro are way apart on the timing of the southern wave with the GFS being over 24 hours faster. They may even be keying in on different pieces of energy. Long ways to go...

    Last night's EPS had like 3-4 waves it's trying to resolve. Kinda a good thing because with a big amped up storm we always flip to rain/ice. Moisture riding the boundary is our path to a big storm as yesterday's 12z GFS depicted. Having to rely on a well timed phase does make me nervous, but that's just winter in the South

    • Like 2
  • Create New...