olafminesaw

Really impressive structures with the cells all along the VA. Just not enough spin to drop tornadoes (for long anyway) but a couple nasty looking hooks.

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

I know the Euro isn’t a hi-res CAM. Just didn’t know if maybe there was a hi-res CAM produced in Europe. They’re better than us at making cars, airplanes, and I would assume weather models too.

If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though

1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said:

Everyone please welcome our newest forum member, King of Prussia Dental Ass.

Good people, great smiles!

Are the cells training over the northern portion of Alabama going to create a boundary that will enhance tornado risk to it's south?

If there's any consolation, it's that the primary threat area is centered over the least populous part of that region. Of course all those bigger cities in the moderate/enhanced are certainly quite at risk as well, but a silver lining nonetheless

Just now, jojo762 said:

Edwards went all in with the 13z discussion. One of the strongest worded discussions you will ever see folks. Very bad day ahead.

Kinda surprising they didn't go with 45%

1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

I honestly don't know.  It's basically a coin toss.  Lets see how CAM outcomes play out throughout the rest of the day.

My gut tells me that prolific tornado outbreaks are always going to be less likely than a "bust" with this kind of spread in CAM solutions, because there are many pathways to a bust and few to a prolific outbreak. 

I think statistical analysis is an underutilized tool in meteorology. In any case of extreme weather, the distribution is skewed right. I figure in setups like these the distribution drops off to the right side of the curve very quickly because of how fragile they are. Extreme environments have a very narrow envelope of CIN, or they fail spectacularly, one what or the other

Wind has shifted to the S instead of SE, should see a steady increase in temp/dewpoints. It's a race between the line of storms and the warm air advection

Thankfully, not the tightest of couplets on the west tuscaloosa storm, for now

Are probabilities defined as odds of a tornado within a circle who's radius is 25 miles, or as odds that a line segment 25 miles long will be crossed by a tornado?

6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Personally, I was surprised with the large moderate area for NC/SC.  I knew there would be a moderate area, but I was surprised at the northern extent of it.  
I think this is where experience with CAD comes into play.  It will truly be a question of how far north and west the CAD erodes during the day...   The moderate area looks to align with your typical ice/rain border in winter weather. 

Especially with rain chances throughout the day and no sun. Definitely reminds me of april 19 2019 (although I think that setup was a lot more CAPE dependent)

For those wondering, blacksburg radar should be back up and running this evening and Raleigh should be back up by the end of Wednesday

This sounding is just....bonkers

14 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I am still confused by why the climate summary for Greensboro was posted

Sorry, I was in the wrong thread

Kinda ironic that suppression only becomes a problem when march rolls around

When the NAVGEM is all you've got...

This is a 5/5 on the weenie scale

Big oof

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@olafminesaw is gonna thread the needle on this, I can see it. 

Just need DCA to be the jackpot on a March snowstorm. How hard could it be?

2 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

While looking at various stations this morning, I noticed a wide variation in temperatures over a short distance.  I’m 36.1 while airport is 29.  One station near me is 35.8 while another is 30.9.

Definitely a classic case of radiation cooling with clear skies and calm winds. Low spots significantly cooler. Made for some heavy frost and icy spots from runoff. Today and tomorrow are classic coat in the morning, t-shirt in the afternoon weather.

EPS Mean snow depth for next week

1031 high in the ohio valley with a low developing in Louisiana on the Euro.

Checks chip stack....shoves all in

Edit: welp, high slides east and another ice storm for us (and yes, I realize models are mostly useless at this range)