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olafminesaw

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Posts posted by olafminesaw

  1. I mean, I feel like the whole narrative that we've had these fantastic day 10 looks only to have them disappear, isn't really true. We've had way less fantasy storms than normal, and the pattern hasn't really been all that great on ensembles at range either, just kinda oscillating between pretty good and not so great.There's been flashes of promise but nothing crazy. Now we're actually seeing a pretty legit -NAO and -AO at range. Not saying it all couldn't be a mirage after all, just think it's probably not fair to totally discount the modeled pattern change either. 

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  2. 49 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

    Does anyone have stats on how often: if we get into Feb w/o measurable snow, how often we strike out for the season?

    People always argue with me (yes I know it’s happened before), but after Feb 15, things start getting really hard.

    Posted an Eric Webb tweet the other day that said half of all major snowstorms in NC happen after Feb 15th in El Nino years

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  3. The 6z Euro ticks colder and would bring a few hours of light ZR to the piedmont. One thing working in our favor is it will be quiet cold tonight and tomorrow and should drop below freezing well before onset. Sometimes we do well in these setups even with a retreating high. However, we will almost certainly go above freezing by mid morning at the latest, so hopefully we can get a pretty scene on the trees anyway

     

  4. Based on the timing of the NAO/AO flip to negative (pretty much a lock at this point), and the lag time typically involved, I'd be looking for a storm threat around the 15th. The Pacific is likely not going to cooperate, but it should be a better pattern coupled with peak Climo

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  5. The 12z icon is much colder at the surface and a bit south as well. Several hours of zr including when the heavier precip moves in. Verbatim would have trouble accreating with temps around 31/32, but a trend to watch with the remainder of the 12z models. Not our typical significant ice storm setup, with limited cold air and heavy precip limiting the potential to a moderate event at most.

  6. Just now, BornAgain13 said:

    18z GFS a little to warm outside of the Mts for next weekend but the 18z GEFS trended colder with a minor event. Should be an interesting system to track.

    Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
     

    I feel like one of these systems is bound to feature front end wintry mix eventually, even if relatively minor

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  7. 43 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

    Both GEFS and EPS currently show approximately 10-20% chance of 1" of snow for central NC over next 10 days.

    When you change it to a trace, it is roughly 20-30% chance.

    GSO has historically had a 32% chance of .1"+ of snow in that 10 day period, so not far off. Also of note, daily snow climo sharply increases from about 3% per day in the next week to about 6% per day  the week after. This means between the 29th of Dec and the 4th of Jan there is a 18% chance of at least .1", and a 35% chance between the 5th and 11th.  This of course disregards enso state, I assume that many of the snowfalls in the first week of January occured during El nino. 

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  8. Oof. Torches at the surface verbatim, with insufficient cold air, despite the perfect track and being timed well with the cold air. Probably would be snow in this scenario, but might not really even accumulate. Of course, this is still pretty far out, but we keep seeing this system too warm at the surface. Hopefully we see that change towards mid-month.

    gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_24.png

    download (3).png

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  9. 2 hours ago, burgertime said:

    First, good luck to everyone this winter. I’ve been starting to track winter weather here in the Netherlands.
     

    Decided to check in on what was going on in the SE with the pattern change. Next week and beyond looks interesting for sure. The 12z Euro map was a bit crazy. If this ULL can drop a little further south some folks outside of the mountains in NC/SC could get in on the action.  Something to keep an eye on. 
     

     

    IMG_5090.png

    An uptick on the GEFS mean as well. Haven't dug into the members at all

     

    In case you didn't know, weather.us has about the best free  model data out there internationally. Hopefully you get to track something this winter over there! 

    sn10_024h-mean-imp.us_ma.png

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