gman

I am back to being stressed about this storm. After looking at all of the moisture to our west and watching the temps dropping quickly, Chris Justus might just be right. It looks bad for the Upstate. Hope I am wrong.

WYFF is interrupting regular programming and is on now. Chris Justus is saying the late arrival of the moisture means much less sleet and much more freezing rain. I pray he is wrong.

Seems to be a squall line or low pressure developing off the coast of Florida, just east of Jacksonville and Brunswick, Ga. Does anyone else see that and does it mean anything as it relates to our storm?

The sun is out and it just hit 40 in Greenville.

Chris Justus is doubling down on his latest video, now calling for over an inch of ice in Greenville and thunder ice late in the day. https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1AFzsPNBeF/

Imagine being upset that the models were wrong in your scenario.

I pray this storm is a bust, and that the public is mad because they didn't lose power for a week and people didn't die because of no heat.

Chris Justus with WYFF is live now on YouTube. Sorry, the is from last night. I will keep it posted anyway in case you want to subscribe to his YouTube channel.

WSPA is saying about the same as WYFF. The models are trending downward on the precipitation. WSPA is now at 0.36” of accumulated ice. They must see something on the lastest models to be in agreement. I love the NWS, but with this storm, they seem to be late on their discussion changes.

Locals Mets on WYFF are saying the latest models bring good news of much less precipitation, more sleet than freezing rain and then just rain before it ends. They now have us with 0.46” of ice, with that being more sleet than freezing rain. I pray that trend continues.

So, do you think the precipitation will be mostly sleet in the CAD regions, like upstate SC?

Been sunny in Greenville for the last hour. Makes me wonder if the high pressure is even stronger than expected, pushing the sleet line further south?

Praying for NAM to be right.

I have the same sick feeling that I had the days leading up to Helene. The Upstate folks have a sense of gloom and doom. The grocery store and hardware store shelves are empty. If we do get the inch or more of freezing rain, the entire area’s power grid will be down for days again. People might die due to the extreme cold. Praying for everyone.

We need to remember that the weather folks are going with information they have at the moment. Bottom line, there is the good chance this could be a bad ice storm. They cannot ignore that fact at all. I would rather they overplay a storm than underplay it. It is like buying a generator last year. I hope I spent $800 and never had to use it again. The same with this storm. I hope I am prepared just in case. The best case scenario being, the hype was way overdone. People just need to go with the flow. Life is short people, enjoy the moment.

Let’s pray the NAM is correct. The last thing NC and SC needs is a crippling ice storm. We still have scars from Helene.

I don’t understand all the gloom and doom, especially after reading the latest GSP NWS weather discussion. Game still on. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GSP&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off For those of us about to hit 70 years old, we are running out of time and just want to see some white stuff. We are not selfish. It’s been over 1500 days since we have seen over an inch of snow in the Upstate. At this point in my life, I will shout for joy to watch an inch of snow and/or sleet falling. All that said, I am appreciative of the weather discussion. A huge part of the fun is the lead up to the big events, whether they happen or not. You guys make it fun. Thank you.

I don't remember ever seeing a forecast like this from the GSP NWS. Thursday Night A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Light and variable wind. Friday A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Friday Night A chance of rain after 11pm, mixing with snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Snow before 2pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain and sleet. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Freezing rain likely before 9am, then snow and freezing rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night A chance of snow and freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

I think there is a better chance of it trending south than north.

Nice surprise. We have picked up 1.17" rain since midnight.

No rain in the forecast for at least the next 10 days. What will it take to break the cycle?

It has to be fall. The Honey Crisp apples have been available for a week. The crop is early this year.

After reading this from the GSP NWS, I am looking forward to next weekend. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 139 AM EDT Friday: Deep upper ridging will continue through the middle of the week, and as a result widespread heat issues will continue at least through Wednesday. Meanwhile, a robust 500mb low will develop over eastern Canada, gaining momentum and pivoting into Quebec on Thursday...and resulting in markedly lowered heights over the Southeastern U.S. This should, at long last, bring an end to the heat wave. Models begin to diverge toward the end of the period, but the general consensus is that sometime on Friday into next weekend, a cold front will dig out of the Ohio Valley into the Carolinas, spurring an increase in shower/thunderstorm activity while ushering a cooler, drier air mass into the region. Despite ensemble variability by this point, confidence is improving in low severe potential with this system...as even the more aggressive end of the ensemble envelop keeps deep shear too low for anything more than loose organization, and a distinct lack of dry air aloft should keep DCAPE limited.

The past few days of radar versus actual rain and future forecasts tell me that Greenville County (below T.R.) is at the epicenter of the heat dome. Seriously, storm's dry up as they reach middle Greenville County. We have gotten only 1.25" of rain all month and nothing in the last week or so. On a bright note, we ate lunch yesterday at our favorite spot in Fletcher, Kosta's Kitchen. It was only 74 degrees with a wonderful breeze at 1:00, nice enough to sit outside on the porch area. I am ready for apple season and cooler weather.

We are in desperate need of rain in the Greenville area, but it is not looking good for the next week or so.