I gotta say I love the RAP and HRRR banter.
I am with Alek…feel like the northern edge of over running events typically overperform. Riding that to my 4-8” call, the main event is not ours.
15z SREF plumes right at 12” for ORD. There’s a big cluster 15-20” that should be thrown out. If you get rid of that, your mean is closer to 6” which seems right.