DeltaT13

It needs to hold serve though, one more tick and we have mixing issues over a chunk of this forum.

It says you joined this site Dec 7, 2016. So that explains that

I didnt remember you back then. You popped onto the scene in 2015 or 2016 from what I recall. Did you switch names maybe?

We are being silly. Only 4 pages back and we can look at all our obs from the March 14 blizzard. We were pretty jacked up about this storm Starts around page 42. Looks like there was thundersnow with that one.

I'm not saying we havent had many good hits since then. That one just sticks out in my head for some reason. Very fast system but rates were fantastic for about 12 hours.

Not easy at all and doesn't bode well for lake enhanced snows either. Still time for things to amp up.

The 700mb closed off in that storm but it took until it was over Northern NY/Vermont.

Here is what March 2014 looked like. Pretty similar track for sure.

Great Find CNYWX! I remember tracking that storm and being extremely excited when we upgraded to blizzard warnings. I took off from work to chase that one. I then went to Gore mountain a few days after and it was glorious. That storm is the last really Huge synoptic hit that I clearly recall for the entire area.

Well Feb 100+ was just localized insane lake effect in the same old places you'd expect (super impressive, but somewhat expected). The March 12, 2014 storm was a ****ing doozy for a huge swath from Ohio through Maine. I am willing to bet you had a blizzard warning for that (As nearly the entire KBUF CWA had them). I'll dig a bit when I get to work. Not sure where to start but I'll kill some time.

You didnt get one for the March 12th, 2014 storm?? I thought Buffalo upgraded all the South Shore counties to Blizzard warnings for that one..

I was 18 years old in my first year of meteorology at SUNY Brockport. I remember it incredibly well as we were snowed in the dorms for days. The storm was forecast but snow amounts missed low by a good margin.

Well 99 wasn’t a true blizzard from what I recall. I also didn’t remember blizzard warnings for that storm. I could be completely wrong, would love to know so I have that straight in my head

Has anyone run any analogs for this storm? In my mind the path is very similar to March 2014. That was Rochester’s first blizzard since the super storm. I don’t have the links on my phone. Will check back on end I get into work.

The main threat for you getting canceled is if the airlines preemptively cancel a ton of flights and your plane doesnt make it into Buffalo. It's rare for a flight out of Buffalo to be canceled for snow alone, and you would be one of the first ones out. Still hard to pin down when we will get the heaviest stuff but that departure appears somewhat in the middle of this event. If this trip is really critical and you had the ability/resources I would consider moving up your departure to Sat Afternoon just to be safe.

Next two weeks look very exciting. Such an active pattern for the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. This is exactly what we want to see. Hard to tell if at the very end the pattern is reloading or if the trough is retrograding towards the West coast. I'll remain optimistic that its reloading, several weeks of below normal temps with lots of potential.

A few runs ago we had that unusual 2 part storm with the secondary low forming off the coast late in the weekend. Current runs seems to be evolving towards one primary low on more of a miller A path with everything dialed back about 36 hours.

Cool little low level NE flow event, as predicted. Just sporadic flakes in the air but better than a sunny day.

Holy shit I just checked the models and knew I couldnt be the first person to post about that storm (ROCdave right on it). This run has to be archived for posterity. That is 100 percent the quintessential perfect storm for us. Widespread 18-24+ amounts for the entire area if a run like that ever hit. WOW. They would probably drop the B word, that storm track is very similar to storm from March 12th of 2014.

Holiday Valley is reporting 18", that sounds too good to be true. Anyone in that area to verify?

I measured about 4" on the button in several places this morning. As usual the airport ASOS numbers are slightly inflated as they reported 6". Super fluff factor to the stuff. Pretty happy with the event. Finally got to try out the 4 wheel drive too!

Upper lakes look real healthy still. The coldest and deepest air hasn’t completely arrived here yet so the lakes might come alive later as winds align.

Martin Luther king junior park is a major tongue twister. Many other famous people have said the same flub on air, Google it. Its the combination of Luther and king or junior and king. Why on earth would he say that on purpose or ever? The reaction is insane and idiotic. My only thought is they wanted to get rid of him anyway and decided to use this as the perfect opportunity.. my two cents

-note- The Canadian radars are in a less sensitive mode than the RadarScope radars from our side of the border. Lots of moisture. Winds are turning more NNW. I’m thinking 2-5 is a safe bet in my backyard.

Look at all that juice and lift!