DeltaT13

Wish that band would setup over the buff airport for awhile tonight. Was really hoping they could make a run at the top 5 snowiest January’s. Only 26 hours left

The airport ASOS is always on the high end. I always average my numbers and measure accurately. What you are noticing is how people inflate totals and take the highest measurement they can find. If you want the real deal number, Just look for obs. They will be the correct one. The blowing and drifting was severe though. Pretty crazy whiteouts and mayhem on the roads. My normal 8 minute commute route was closed. I ended up driving 33 miles and was on the road for an hour and 15 minutes. That was pretty insane.

Here is my driveway which was clear this am. If anything numbers would be slightly inflated as snow tends to drift into low spots. A quarter inch of snow is actually being generous. More or less a dusting from pretty much the best event we could hope for. Another nail in the Tim hype coffin

Tough with wind, but I measured about quarter to half inch on the board and a few other spots that were bare.

Leaving Sunday morning (perhaps saturday night now) and heading to Lake Placid and Whiteface to ride Sunday through Wednesday. Then heading over to Smugglers Notch and Stowe for Thursday through Sunday. I'm currently exploring options to bail on the Vermont half of the trip. The whiteface portion is happening regardless of weather as I already have too much invested in that portion of the trip. At least Lake Placid is a super fun town with plenty of other things to do. I foresee a lot of ice skating and bar hopping in my future, perhaps even a run down the bobsled course if we really run out of ideas and the mountain is beat/closed. We'll just make the best of it.

Probably not the time or place, but was fun to see what happens when a model really runs away with a system (unrealistically). The FV3 really cranked up this Nor'Easter. Basically a hurricane strength system. 943mb!!

No way man. I will not budge an inch on this debate. We havent even gotten a half inch of snow. If Tim had said winds would create ground blizzards I would give him credit but we all expected to having blowing and drifting concerns with the antecedent conditons.. But as for new snow it has been minimal at best.

Yup. They just closed the 390 at the airport. About 10 years ago they built a runway overrun right next to 390. What they actually built was the ultimate whiteout machine. Snow blows down the length of the runways then hits the dead air at the end and just piles up on 390. This is the location of a 100 car pile up a few years ago. Horrific engineering.

We graduated to moderate snow in Rochester. I’m going to enjoy it while it lasts!

Three days or rain chances and temps in the 40's for the high peaks next week. You can't make this shit up. I'm just going into it like its a spring skiing trip. Soul crushing though. Been planning this trip since August, we have a crew of 20 people.....boooooo

You just drive through that shit and play dumb man if you get pulled over. Have a good story about coming home from work and having no other option. Worth the ticket, plus those guys have WAY more important things to do than chase around a passenger car.

I've always wondered this and the best I can come up with is that elevation change that I posted yesterday. Looking at proximity alone, you would think Rochester could get rocked by that band, but as soon as it leaves Gene-see county is just evaporates. It's brutal but I've come to terms with it a long time ago and never get my hopes up anymore. I just know it won't happen.

I was just noticing that horrific hole West Seneca is in right between bands. Thats brutal man. I can't imagine being that close. You should at least be out chasing.

Ok, fine its light snow with 4 mile visibility. And less than an eighth of an inch accumulation since yesterday. Just saying we won't and don't get 6 inch amounts as some posters implied...... That said, the wind is doing work in regards to lowering visibility. Far more than the snow coming down is

This is about the best setup Rochester could hope for in regards to Lake Effect from Erie and all we have is some snow in the air and flurries now and then.

Blizzard Warnings, better late than never I guess. haha

The RadarScope app allows you to save loops as gifs with basically one click. Then upload from the phone photo library.

Spotted this meso low spiraling off of superior. It looks like it’s on the leading edge of the next major wind shift as per the other Gaylord Mi radar. The lakes are really exploding under this extreme instability. You have to imagine Ontario will come to life very soon.

Syracuse only had 50.6 in 2011-2012 so you won't be anywhere near that pathetic year. That was the year Buffalo was sub 40" The true year without winter.

Winds certainly look to be turning back towards a more more SW flow on the far western end of the lake if you loop this satellite image. Running out of daylight though. Anyway, looks like things are realigning nicely. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-LakeErie-01-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

This is a little coarser than the first one I did but same general profile.

Sorry to side track from the real weather going on. I just graphed the elevation change from the Erie Shore, through Batavia to downtown Rochester (unfortunately its in meters). Anyway, you can see that long downslope from Batava to Rochester. Thats what really does us in. I mean its already a losing battle the further inland you are, but to have a downslope puts the nail in the coffin.

I would be jumping for joy if I got that. Let's go!

Tim, I'm not going to fight with you because l like where your heart is at. But all three maps you posted have rather unimpressive amounts of 80 percent of the county. If you want to focus on Rochester itself it looks like they got 3 inches, 6 inches and then 3 inches in the order of the maps you posted. None of those warrant a warning. I have fantasized about Rochester getting a solid hit from Erie for almost two decades. It turns out its physically impossible.

Starting to wonder if I should take off tomorrow and chase this one.