DeltaT13

Also, thanks for posting the simplified teleconnetion graphics BufWx! I'll peruse them tonight. I need to come up with a clean way to remember them all and make sense of them.

Absolutely, they really stack the deck to make their numbers look good. Sometimes I wonder if they even measure more frequently than every six hours or use some other technique to extrapolate snow totals. It's misleading for sure.

i'll look back at my weather journal to see how much snow we actually got during those storms you posted; as the Rochester Airport ASOS is absolutely insane when it comes to snow totals. Case in point is the storm from this past Monday (11/11). The ROC airport reported the highest snowfall for any location of WNY. Just ridiculously inflated numbers with every storm. I swear some guy at the airport is stacking individual snowflakes corner to corner to make those numbers work. I come in 33 percent lower every season and live 2 miles from the airport.

Ok, I'll bite. That is a generalized overview and some years I suppose that is true, but I can tell you other years it certainly comes out lower than that. Furthermore, lets roll with that statement as if it is actually fact. The 50 some inches that we get from lake effect are truly pitiful dinks and dunks. 2 inches of fluff here, 3 inches there (20:1 ratio crap). Rinse and repeat. Furthermore, there is a huge difference in total snow across Monroe county. I sure as shit don't get 50 inches of lake effect snow a year, Webster on the hand most certainly does. The bottom-line is that the next two weeks look like garbage for Rochester as the models currently stand. Noteworthy storms for Rochester come from large Ohio Valley storms passing just south of us or Hudson Valley running Nor'Easters. I like significant storms with low ratio snow. I'm happy the lakes keep snow in the air more often than most people, but it just doesn't add up to much (at least in my locale on the west side). A single SW event off Erie (the type that buffalo is known for) is more significant than a whole seasons worth of NW multi-band garbage that we get.

This little system on Friday actually looks to pose a decent yet short lived high wind risk. Storm tract to our NW, a fairly deep and deepening storm (sub 985), which hits during daylight hours. I would expect wind advisories to drop sometime tomorrow. It's better than nothing....haha

Not on the west side of the city. You also inflate our lake effect numbers by a factor of 2 or 3 for most storms so I will remain a critic of your claims. I might clarify my statement by saying that pure lake effect accounts for 10-20 percent of my snowfall. Lake Enhancement might end up being 20-30 percent but that is much harder to quantify. That said, every single sizable storm I have ever gotten while living in Rochester was synoptic, never once have I gotten crushed by a lake effect event. Wayne county is a different story, so don't convolute the two.

I really need to sit down and study teleconnections again. I obviously know a little bit about the NAO and what usually works for us, but I can tell you that during my 4 years of studying meteorology, I don't think any one of those indices was ever mentioned a single time (Some of them probably werent even formally named or understood at that time). You guys definitely have a leg up on me when it comes to following these long term trends and indices.

I guess I'm thinking more Synoptic as lake effect only accounts for 10-20 percent of my yearly snow total. Some of the favored locations look alright after storm number 3, the first two appear to transient to really setup anything long duration. I'm struggling to find hope right now, lol. Prop me up guys, give me hope, I need this positivity!

I don't even see anything that even looks favorable for us......

I see three horrible Great Lakes Cutters going way west of us. Looks miserable out to 300 hours..... What am I missing??

Rooting for storms doesnt change the actual weather, just an FYI. I'll root for any storm at anytime because storms are more fun that boring ass weather, you have to live in the now when it comes to weather. I'm not thrilled about the potential of a warm December, but holding a 6+ inch snowpack for 7-10 days in mid November was note worthy and an experience I've rarely if ever seen, so I'm quite happy to have experienced that.

I have the exact same fear. I posted this a few days ago. "As a side note, I'm afraid we've set the bar really high early in the season. It could truthfully be almost 2 months before we hit another wintry stretch like this. Or it could literally not be this cold and snowy again for the remainder of the winter. This is fairly unprecedented stuff here."

We have, and guess what, we have never seen the temp change at the current rate when influenced solely by the things you mentioned. Thats what makes it so damn obvious. The problem here is that you have to trust scientists, and you obviously don't. I don't know how to change that.

I already made many arguments that you failed to comprehend. The current temperature change is faster than in any point in the last 100,000 years. C02 is a confirmed gas that increases temperature. Mankind is extracting and converting immense amounts of oil and gas and turning them into C02. In this exact time period, temperatures have increased at rates never seen before. It's clear as crystal. You said its a hoax by the United Nations. You really put a lot of science behind that. Stop parroting idiotic conspiracy theories and just think about the actual science (which makes complete and absolute sense). There is far more money and benefit (to the Rich and elite) from maintaining the fossil fuel industry; thus there is far more reason to hide numbers and facts that indict it as the cause of global warming. I will concede this though, global warming won't cause mankind to just die tomorrow, or in ten years, or even 100 years. But it will absolutely impact the millions of people living at sea level and those most vulnerable to agricultural changes. To care about global warming as an American requires empathy for other countries and people, and empathy is sorely lacking....especially among the right wing.

Actually he can't. Have you seen his grammar and spelling and general thought process in this argument? He's obviously very poorly educated and lacks any knowledge of the scientific method.

Of course there were times in the past that were warmer, but it took many thousands or even millions of years to reach those temps. The temp change in the last few hundred years is unprecedented when compared to the last few hundred thousand years. We know that CO2 can raise temps so adding CO2 to an atmosphere that may or may not be warming will certainly accelerate any possible warming. It's really hard to debate that adding "greenhouse" gasses doesn't increase temp. Removing trillions of gallons of oil from deep within the earth and converting them into C02 is about as unnatural as it gets. How anyone can dispute that is beyond me. Also, this gem from Tim is typical of snooty self centered Americans. "There are periods in our climate that have been way warmer in past. and you know what happens life flourished. So even if there is warming its definitely not a omg we are all going to die thing as alot of politicians would have you believe." That is a very easy attitude to have when you are living 500 feet above sea level in the richest country in the world. Go talk to the millions dirt poor Southeast Asian and Bangledeshi residents and see if they feel the same way. Climate change will certainly bring great misery and death to the worlds poorest. But why would you care.

I woke up to 3 or 4 inches of super fluff this morning as that band shifted West late last night. However this snow cannot be compared to the storm snow, this had to be 25:1 type stuff while the storm was closer to 8:1. Really no comparison. But damn it looked beautiful out there. As a side note, I'm afraid we've set the bar really high early in the season. It could truthfully be almost 2 months before we hit another wintry stretch like this. Or it could literally not be this cold and snowy again for the remainder of the winter. This is fairly unprecedented stuff here.

Pounding snow here for a few minutes. Looks like it will be transient as the bands come and go, but while they are here its pretty awesome!

We went from sunny skies at U of R to a dark and low cloud deck in a hurry as those finger bands are closed in on us. Would be nice to have some snow for the drive home. The lake response looks good thus far.

I thought we had decided to stop calling it a dry slot, lolz. An open wave type storm doesnt have a dry slot, it just didnt have much moisture on the SE flank. Anyway, I'm not even sure the surface low went much further NW, I just think the frontogenic forcing setup further North, the storm track seemed to go more or less as planned, it was the precip shield that didnt work out as expected.

Geez man, don't do that. Ariens will run for decades. I have one right now from the 80's and its an absolute beast. Usually a little starter fluid in the carb will get it running if it won't start. Otherwise, just pony up 200 bucks to have the carb rebuilt and general once over and it will be good to go for years. Save your money to fix that fence!

METAR text: KROC 120454Z 01020G24KT 1/2SM R04/3500V5000FT SN FZFG VV008 M03/M05 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP147 P0004 T10331050 400281033 Conditions at: KROC (ROCHESTER , NY, US) observed 0454 UTC 12 November 2019 Temperature: -3.3°C (26°F) Dewpoint: -5.0°C (23°F) [RH = 88%] Pressure (altimeter): 29.93 inches Hg (1013.6 mb) [Sea-level pressure: 1014.7 mb] Winds: from the N (10 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 knots; 10.3 m/s) gusting to 28 MPH (24 knots; 12.3 m/s) Visibility: 0.50 miles (0.80 km) Ceiling: indefinite ceiling with vertical visibility of 800 feet AGL Clouds: obscured sky Weather: SN FZFG (moderate snow, freezing fog) METAR text: KROC 120354Z 03012KT 3/4SM R04/5000VP6000FT -SN BR OVC006 M02/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP144 SNINCR 1/7 P0005 T10221033 Conditions at: KROC (ROCHESTER , NY, US) observed 0354 UTC 12 November 2019 Temperature: -2.2°C (28°F) Dewpoint: -3.3°C (26°F) [RH = 92%] Pressure (altimeter): 29.93 inches Hg (1013.6 mb) [Sea-level pressure: 1014.4 mb] Winds: from the NNE (30 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s) Visibility: 0.75 miles (1.21 km) Ceiling: 600 feet AGL Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL Weather: -SN BR (light snow, mist)

Now that I think of it, perhaps the ASOS in cleveland is right near the water or heavily influenced by a shallow layer of modified Lake erie air and the rest of the column is much colder. hmmmm Either way, I think that bodes well for at least a few hours of similar snow off of Ontario Later tonight.

It might not make an appreciable difference in total inches but it really helps maintain the treacherous roads and overall impact for those locations. I also wonder if the entire south shore of Erie looks like that but the radar is overshooting it all? Buffalo specifically mentions boundary layer temps which are definitely warmer there.

So this is interesting. Buffalo makes this statement tonight "Once the steady snow moves east, expect a notable decrease in snow intensity from west to east late tonight through early morning Tuesday. Initially, the airmass will not cold enough in the boundary layer to support lake enhancement with the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone residing way up at around 15K feet. This will change later tonight during the last few hours of this event as the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone descends beneath the lake induced equilibrium level. This will bring some added snowfall along the south shore of Lake Ontario from Niagara County eastward to Wayne County, including the Rochester area." However Cleveland is sitting at 34 with with definitive and indisputable lake enhancement right now. I'm not calling them out, just curious about the discrepancy. This radar is a beaut!