DeltaT13

The density of this snow is incredible. You can literally walk on it like you have snowshoes on. It will have serious lasting power! Also the reason accumulation seems low. Will be interested to see SWE.

Latest regional radar trend seems to show the storm is starting to take more of a pivot rather than boldly sliding NE; which should slow the advance of the western edge. Im out driving around the west side of Monroe county and it’s absolutely ripping. Probably 4-6 inches in places.

The Mets are going to take a beating on this one tomorrow. That cutoff from Jamestown up through Ontario county is just brutal. It wont budge.

This storm is definitely not behaving exactly as expected. As the wxfreak mentioned a few days ago, this storm is a little strung out and moving fast. Places in the finger lakes haven’t even seen a flake yet and were forecasted to get a foot. Cleveland is under winter storm warnings and it’s still raining and 38. Definitely a lot of curve balls with this one and a lot of busts are forthcoming. I should be happy that it’s been snowing at my house for 12 hours straight and we still seem positioned to get 6-10 when all is said and done. Backside of this storm looks absolutely bone dry so I’m hesitant on the lake response side of things.

Snowing all damn day and can still see grass, but that was expected. I was just hoping my commute home would be a little more fun and treacherous. The good stuff still awaits this evening and overnight!

Storm looks good so far. I'm definitely going to be out driving around late tonight when things are really cranking! I guess I should throw out some calls. BUF - 6 Roc - 9 (This might be a stretch but I'm feeling unusually optimistic) Syr - 6 BGM - 1.5 (poor bastards)

I’m driving back from a bills party in Buffalo and rain is picking up nicely as this storm literally takes shape directly overhead. Pretty cool. Temp is 42 and has been dropping on the drive (wife is driving. I got into the blue lights nicely with that dismal performance by the bills).

I thought we were all just having fun but you get high (I’m guessing) and really erratic on here sometimes. Relax man. No one is getting blocked.

Things looks good man. Don’t start this shit already. Lol.

Why can’t a watch be more general. It should be called a potential storm watch. Lol. It’s just a shame because they could look like heroes calling potential storms 5 days out. They should apply some sort of confidence to them. I dunno. Just musing now.

The general public isn’t reading HWO’s. They only take note when it scrolls on the tv or is mentioned on the radio with an official stamp from the NWS. I understand it’s a complicated topic. I still think it needs work.

A watch should be just what it says, a watch. They should have posted a watch on Thursday or Friday. Then late today they either upgrade or downgrade. The watch should just put the potential for significant snow on the general populations radar as far in advance as possible. We’ve all been eyeing this storm for days. It’s so stupid they wait until less than 24 for hours before they actually acknowledge the storm to the general public.

Also, now probably isn’t the time but I’m always fascinated by the gfs hate. Ive used it pretty much 90 percent of the time for years and it seems damn decent to me. If you compare the sfc low placement around 12z Tuesday for the past 5 days you’ll see the gfs does a better job than the euro. I also feel like I see it identify storms further out than the euro, only to lose them in mid range before finally locking in again around day 4. Anyway, always an interesting topic. I think the gfs gets a worse rap than it deserves. /end rant

Well there is no reason to panic. It’s a fun storm for us nerds but something that WNY can handle without batting an eye and a minor nuisance for the general pop. It’s not like they missed a three foot blizzard.

A northeast wind will enhance Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe just about the same. In fact the NE fetch is usually ideal for Monroe county as the shoreline is oriented somewhat NW to SE so you end up with strong frictional convergence as the winds are nearly perpendicular to shoreline. Additionally the NE fetch in Monroe county extends all the way up to Alexandria bay which gives the longest fetch during NE enhancement events. Im still holding out hope for a 4-7 type storm.

I mean the storm starts early Monday morning. I think we can lock something in sooner than 6 hours out. Haha. I thought the 0z runs tonight were encouraging for a good 4-8 inch type storm; which is a very respectable hit for mid November. Good enough for me at least. Seems like a somewhat long duration event with nam and gfs hinting at a particularly nice inverted trough right over WNY overnight into Tuesday which would keep us in the snow longer I dunno, I’m feeling Optimistic for once.

Not only is it further east, but its a stingy 1014mb low. Gross.

Well if we want to cherry pick a single analog point, Rochester just tied a daily low max temp today at 31. The last time was 1976. The infamous 76/77 winter........

It's downright bizarre at this point. Either they are incompetent or waiting to make a completely new forecast after the 0z runs tonight. There is very reasonable model consensus at this point yet they keep recycling that same erroneous blurb about Mondays event.

I'm on an iphone and it all looks normal to me. What browser are you using?

Its been awhile since I've seen Canada this snow covered this early in the year. Impressive stuff. I hope it can help build a cold BIAS on this side of the hemisphere. https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2019&ui_day=309&ui_set=0

Jesus Christ that dude is trying a little too hard. The words he uses in that abstract are completely ridiculous and unnecessary (An abstract is a supposed to be a short, clean, and usually simple summary of a more complex paper). I pride myself on a larger than average vocabulary and that guy pulled out a dozen words I have rarely if ever seen used. He may be smart, he may even be right with his forecast, but he comes across like like a clown trying way too hard to impress people. congruous derogate putative redolent diminution exogenous vicissitudes felicitous evince multifarious veridical apocryphal

Yeah, quite the startling shift in the last 18 hours or so. To be honest this looks more reasonable and realistic. And as the WXfreak points out, cold and snowy Novembers rarely work in our favor so perhaps this is all for the best. Around the 20th it appears that a parade of powerful storms will break down the West Coast Ridge while a strong Bermuda high appears to be setting up for the East Coast. We might get an Indian Summer week after all. This is all speculation as the model shifts over the last few days have been drastic (and I'm also looking two weeks out, LOLz)

Did anyone else notice those intense MESO lows that the 6z GFS popped over 3 of the Great lakes under that super cold and deep arctic air next week? I really didnt think the GFS had the resolution to do something like that. Pretty damn interesting.