CryHavoc

Mods, please feel free to delete if it's too ranty or off-topic, but... If indeed the tornado is "only" rated an EF4, on the grounds that it didn't impact a structure of sufficient build material to award the "5" rating, I think the system could be very problematic. Yes, it's true, families don't care about ratings. But we, as scientists, should. The entire purpose of the rating system is for future safety. If the rating system is built such that the only way to award a 5 rating is for the tornado to hit a modern, metropolitan area with structures that are brand new and built to the most rigid standards, it could actually be a relatively discriminatory system regarding less well off communities. I do not believe the best solution for the Fujita scale is to say, "Sorry, your community wasn't wealthy enough to have a a building to meet our (increasingly stringent) standards." That is, IMO, not the best application of the reason we have rating systems. At that point, assessors are essentially saying it's impossible for an EF5 tornado to go through a rural town like the ones I grew up in, because we have absolutely nothing close to a modern medical center like in Joplin, or anything of the like. Most of the homes in the area where I grew up were constructed closer to the civil war than present day. The idea that an EF5 can't hit where my parents live because it's a small old town is a blind spot in our science, IMO. We can and should do better to get more data. I sincerely believe that we have more than enough technology in 2021 to be far less narrow with what constitutes EF5 level damage, and that the public (who DOES pay a lot of attention to these ratings) is not served well by being overly stingy with the "5" designation. I'm deeply frustrated by the idea that the EF5 has suddenly become some kind of unattainable rating, unless it strikes a town center or an area where wealthy people who can afford to have extremely well-built homes live. Imagine telling someone that their town is just too poor to convince the assessors that the tornado was strong enough to damage a rich person's home in a similar manner. Unacceptable. Completely unacceptable in my view. tl;dr: there should be a way to discover whether or not a tornado was of sufficient strength regardless of where it strikes, with the one potential exception of it striking a completely open relatively barren field. If it hits where people live, we should do EVERYTHING in our power to know how strong it was, even if it only strikes a single home.

TOG just showed on KCCI near Elvira.

I guess Mother Nature heard us when we were talking about how relatively quiet this year was storm wise. Be careful what you wish for.

71 in Western Illinois, where I'm from. Absolutely wild. I remember being on campus at my alma mater many years ago, it got up to 63 degrees and everyone was running around in bathing suits and laying out. Shows how unusual it is for the area. 71 is so warm that it's deeply concerning for 12/15. It's 46 degrees here in the Bay Area, which is supposed to be much warmer than the Midwest.

Reminds me of 4/27 when the sirens went down before the big cells blew up. Great timing for weather forecast equipment to fail, guys!

My radarscope just went down -- unable to pull data.

Gotta think there's a chance for a high risk upgrade at this point, these storms are extremely serious and they're going to continue for quite some time.

It's possible it shows up in the other photos, but yeah, the two highlighted do not in fact show rebar in the structure.

I wish the guy who posted those photos kept them public, you can't see them now.

I would posit that Jarrell, Phil Campbell, and Smithville are 3 of the strongest tornadoes in history, at least in the modern era. But if you had asked me a week ago if we'd ever see another tornado to rival the Tri-State, I would have laughed because as inconceivable as EF5s are, a path length of over 200 miles is just as rare as one with an intensity of those three storms. Perhaps even more rare, since I don't think we have anything on the books that was even within 80% of the TST. Records are meant to be broken, and unfortunately I think it's a virtual certainty we'll see another day similar to 4/27. It might be 5 years from now or 50, but eventually the synoptic parameters will be in place to unleash another near perfect outbreak of tornadoes.

Agreed. It's already one of the most impressive tornadic events of all-time. My only thought now is just how violent it was at peak. Is it comparable to say, Plainfield/Rainsville? Or stronger, like Smithville/El Reno (2011)? Or even stronger than those? Undoubtedly we haven't seen every piece of damage from this storm, and IIRC some of the most telling photos from 4/27 were only found/made public several days or even a week later, like the ground scouring from Philadelphia in 2011. Btw, love Mr. Perfect. One of my fondest memories as a kid watching him wrestle.

I think given the scale we're looking at, I would be surprised if this tornado killed fewer. Likely a maxed out EF4+ tornado that hit half a dozen towns and several factories. It's the worst case scenario especially in December where people really aren't even paying attention to severe weather. Most of the people hit by a tornado would have been much more worried about a heavy snow or ice storm than a tornado on 12/10 of any given year.

Oh goodness. Governor of Kentucky just said on an interview I heard on NPR that he fears the tornado from 12/10 "will be the deadliest in the history of the United States." Even if it doesn't come fully to fruition (I doubt he knows the exact number from the TST of 1925), that is a seriously concerning statement.

Those are possibly the most extreme damage indicators I've seen. You can also see multiple trees in virtually every direction in this photo -- suggesting the tornado was likely multi-vortex at this stage as this appears to be a small suction vortice.

The length and strength of this outbreak is going to really be legendary. It's 2am there (3 if you move into east kentucky). And these storms are still firing and producing not just radar-confirmed tornadoes, but debris balls.

This is one of those nights that you as a weather fan talk about for the rest of your life. One of those hallmark nights. Unfortunately for the wrong reasons tonight.

They probably just pulled them out of the warehouse and put them to use.

I grew up near Virginia. We probably know some of the same people.

Mother is in Illinois, they have taken shelter as they are right under the gun for a modest couplet.

That snyder storm has bonkers rotation. Absolutely some of the best I've seen all year.

I'm not sure but I think this storm might have some rotation in it.

Textbook hook developing just NE of Carter.

Absolutely wild day for October. This looks like it could be one of the more serious situations this year. Ample CAPE and some really noteworthy shear -- these would be great parameters in early April to say nothing of mid-autumn. Definitely going to be a long night across the plains.

Palisade Trenton and Herndon cells are all hooking, the southerly most cell looks particularly intense. PDS on the Herndon cell.