Iceagewhereartthou

Man, that's just painful to look at.

Better go ahead and order one online now then.

I understand, that's incredible agreement for that lead time. The Euro and GFS are normally like Republicans and Democrats, they can't agree on anything! This whole 24th-30th week should be a good period to watch going forward.

Man that's a classic (the movie and the mower), they'll run forever.

The top image reminds me a lot of the Feb 14 map the Euro spit out the day before for me and Mack. That was supposed to be a generational storm (actually had amounts about 50% higher); had the mets going big dog, and the stinking WAA went off the charts and sleeted us to death. That was a crusher. Again, great to see potential, but hour 360? Might as well be hour 23,304. Going to be fun to have some things to watch going forward for sure though!

I don't do much myself given my lawn situation; just a little right up around the house. I used to just chop them with my mower but I've been pushing the last few years after my rider pooped out on me. My little boy loves to rake leaves (God Bless him!) so I'll take advantage of that while I can.

So a double low and that high is TOTALLY different. Make that 1032 and we've got something. It's fantasy land anyway but fun to look at and analyze.

I hear you. I think I still have yet to mow Dec, Jan, Feb, mostly because I refuse to, and also b/c I don't have a true lawn and can get away with it. So many trees keep me from having to mow a ton anyway. We didn't have peak leaf season this year until nearly Thanksgiving, by far the latest I've ever seen. If this keeps up our trees won't have to drop leaves anymore and (while tragic) at least we'll get out of raking!

That is a thing of beauty, no doubt. It really is too bad such setups and storms are so rare around here. I think we all know there's almost no chance a storm, even remotely, like this will happen, but it does show potnetial for the upcoming time period for something. Let's hope most of us will see snow sometime over the next few weeks.

That Low is in a PERFECT spot for many. Too bad that High isn't placed better. Love to see highs over NE and NY with that low placement!

I'll completely pass on an ice storm. If its sleet that's fine and I'll take that but no zr. Zr is pretty for a but you can have zero fun with it. Jus the leaves a mess with no redeeming quality. Snow, sleet, or nothing please.

I'd give up any and all snow for quite awhile to see that evil team go down. GEAUX LSU!

It looks like that curves back into the circle, then probably back into phases 3 and 4, completely bypassing the colder phases of 8,1, and 2 no? That's not at all what we want to see going into Feb. Just a couple days ago we saw it modeled with a much wider arc into 7 looking to go into 8. If this is correct well have a very short window and that could be it.

Just my two cents on the upcoming possible pattern change; love the trends and we've certainly waited for our turn. Couple things I'm looking for; really interested to see where the southeast ridge and resulting storm track sets up; that's been a huge deal breaker for us for years now. Lots of Highs showing up on maps for that time period, as many as 6 or 7 on some maps. That would really lend itself to overrunning Miller A types which would help more of the board, so lets see if that continues. Also, I'm temepering any excitement until at least Wed of next week. Let's get the time period within 5 days to get a better sense of where we're heading. Track on.

I know a lot of us will be watching ahead looking for the possible pattern change, but man, oh man, at the coming setup. NWS has my low over the next 7 days at 51! Not sure I've ever seen a week like this in January before, at least not for that long of a stretch. Highs 15-20 above normal and lows 20-25 above! Severe weather and possible tornadoes for much of the SE, rain and storms all the way from upper midwest through New England. This is totally nuts.

I think the high North of that would be your blocking high with the low you're ralking about acting as the 50/50 low, though it would be better a bit South of there. The high over Maine is the cold air source. One would think the Missouri low would be a bit South of there, or at least push SE from there with the high, though I think we want a high in the 1040 range and the low over LA instead. That particular look (though obviously fantasy at this range) looks to put most of us in the warm sector looking for ZR if anything. IDK, maybe Grit or Wow or someone better than me could chime in?

Yep. Hard to track worms and storms, but I don't think I have ever seen that storm myth pan out.

BTW, I think this is a total myth and there's nothing to it, but thought some of you would appreciate that I saw a woolly worm today. It was black on both ends but sold brown in the middle half. Cold in Nov and cold Feb following warm Dec/Jan?

I think we need that western ridge a little taller and a few hundred miles further west to help dig that low just a bit more. Also, like to see the high hang back a few hundred miles, more in tandem (just ahead of) with the low (maybe back in MIZZ). Actually this would be excellent placement if we had a secondary high back north of the low. This looks in danger of getting pushed out unless that's a 50/50 low in the corner to help keep it anchored. It's also telling that a 1043 is that close yet the 540 bar is barely below. Haven't looked at temps but that tells me it's pretty marginal cold. Awesome to have something at least showing up within the ten day. This will change a hundred times so let's see if we can get this potential to show up inside 5 days.

When clown maps no longer have any pink on them...

Good grief That would cause some major problems. At this point I'll take dry over cold.

Here are the January highs and lows for GSP from 2012 (you know, "the worst winter ever"). Some ups and downs but really not that bad. Had a couple of bona fide cold fronts. Actually felt like Jan for a good bit, just no snow. It'll be intersting to see how this Jan compares. an 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Max Avg Min 56 51.3 46 66 54.7 36 47 35.8 25 56 40.8 25 48 39.7 31 49 40.0 36 48 40.1 34 44 33.5 21 35 26.4 15 32 26.3 24 33 29.3 27 35 26.4 18 38 28.8 20 40 27.6 15 50 36.4 26 53 40.0 29 43 38.1 35 47 39.9 36 60 45.0 34 50 41.9 32 44 36.3 29 41 30.8 25 47 33.3 22 48 37.5 30 39 35.8 31 51 41.0 34 50 37.9 28 57 43.1 32 64 45.5 27 72 56.1 43 51 44.5 41

Good to see, keeping my fingers crossed. It's funny though, even though I know February can be a geat Winter month, I've been so jaded by the past few that I have no confidence it will be anything other than Spring. May Februrary 2020 be the one to restore the confidence!

Yeah, this pattern has been in control for awhile now. Very active STJ farther north bringing endless rain systems through the SE, basically serving as a semi-permanant SER and keeping all cold in the central US and northern Rockies parts of the CONUS. The same patterns are responsible for both the overabundance of rain and total lack of cold. The last two years in particular have been excruciatingly rainy; over 135 inches for me, and more than 200 inches for many mountain locations. This year seems to be starting the same way. The good news is, patterns can't last forever. Maybe we get a change soon, maybe not. But we're very unlikely to get much frozen with the current pattern.