Moonhowl

It would be nice to get this setup before March; best of my recollection winter of 2010-2011 was the last time we had the teleconnections set up well during the winter; however, when it ended in February, spring ended up being early and warm in 2011 (based on my unreliable memory). The 2009-2010 winter was epic. Anyway, in the month of April, l I don't need to look at the models. Just glance here and if I see you posting, then I know Dogwood winter is upon us

Enjoy this coming Wednesday because this may be the only time this happens for the next couple of weeks (if this holds true); NAM agrees: NWS GSP forecast for Avl: Emphasis on "Calm"

Yes, we are passed due for our annual killing freeze; you would think the plants would know by now that it happens every year

Guess winter will end up being November and April

Maybe the teleconnections will keep us from hitting 90 F before the end of April. Took a bicycle ride on he Parkway yesterday; it was packed. Came down the mountain through downtown Asheville; compared to a normal Saturday it was a ghost town. Seeing that really drove home the economic impact of all this. Back at you and everyone with the well wishes.

I saw that; looks really bad.

Well, your chances of snow in Durham are about the same as Florida. The good news it is an easy drive to Roxboro

Well, pressure at Frying Pan right now is 839 mb. Frying Pan Knob that is.

Good luck, sending big miss vibes your way. At least we can be confident it isn't going to be hanging around very long.

No doubt it is stressing me out; I have family in Wilmington, NC and Raleigh, NC although not as worried about Raleigh.

Not going to bother to count but for Dorian, I wonder how many individual model runs posted are on the left side of the NHC cone of uncertainty vs. the right side...

Well, to keep it real, the last place in the world to come for an objective view of the true probability of landfall is a weather message board; I suppose it serves the purpose of compiling in one place all the worst case scenarios which certainly aren't beyond the realm of possibility.

Well, warm weather does bring crickets

Congrats! Nice to have another member of the Pack in WNC.

Just saw that as well; what a bummer. His parting statement can be found on the WRAL website here: https://www.wral.com/greg-fishel-announcement/18190287/

Don't worry all the teleconnections will set up perfectly this year just the "in winter" part of it will be fail.

I am certainly enjoying it. Last year in this neck of the woods the warm week in February was pretty much it for any extended warm weather until May. Come mid-April when the wind is gusting to 40 mph and the snow flurries flying I will be wishing for February weather.

Warm in this neck of the woods seems like the front door to the gulf has been left open and endless rain. Warm and wet or cold and dry appear to be the two options.

You gotta make that epic drive to Roxboro on the far side of the magic snow line.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 77.2W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

I have family in Raleigh and not totally out of the woods here. I want no part of a hurricane and am not happy at all about the current track. Given how grim some models are I will post the NHC key message on uncertainty and still hope for the best but of course folks need to be prepared for the worst: The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts.

Somebody forget to deactivate the snow shield again

It may be January but failure of the season is already awarded to RAH for their holy moly snow fail.

Clipper bate

For you Pack fans; maybe the snow hole is a sign the Pack will be able to put the ball in the hole tonight and beat Notre Dame or maybe there is the same chance of that happening as snow in Raleigh; IDK. GO PACK!