fountainguy97

Not a flake yet temp FINALLY falling.  Maybe I'll get a few minutes of flakes with these last bands. 

12 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

I’m just now starting to use CC on RadarScope and really like it. Do you know what the white stands for? I was noticing a lot of that as the system first started entering Knox Co.


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White is above the value of 1 and I think can be considered untrustworthy. Basically an error. Uniform sized precip like all rain or all snow will be right around the value of 1.  Any reduction in the value is a sign of different sized and shaped objects in the sky. Which is why we see the mixing line so well today. 
 

Also useful tracking tornadoes. Debris will show up as a very low value.

6 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

Just noticed this huge blob of mixed on Radar Scope. Anomaly??? (pic won’t load)


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Honestly I never use the precipitation depiction.  Correlation coefficient is always the best for discerning Ptypes

1 minute ago, Vol4Life said:

In Farragut, hoping this goes back to snow.  It’s really frustrating to go back and forth.  

You should go back to snow after a while. Hrrr pulls the line to the east over the next few hours!

3 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

 

For those in the warm nose, join me and the Dark Side.  Let your anger flow through you. We Sith can hope for severe weather next time. This system would be a warm front tornado machine in March.

Our numbers grow every minute 

Just now, dwagner88 said:

If it makes you feel any better, I doubt it would have mattered. I stayed cloudy all day and still went from 29 to 36 this morning. We are getting light sleet as the column saturates.

Probably right. Low track makes it irrelevant.  Needed it to slide 30-50Miles further south. 

As soon as heavy clouds rolled in I stopped at 37. Slowly climbing. Afraid it was 2 hrs too late. 

I wouldn't bet against the HRRR at this point. 
 

watch it's trends for the Eastern Valley. It did jump some in accumulations this last run for those areas.  I think Eastern areas want as much backside snow as possible. 

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Scratch that last post.  Precip is more.  Problem is warm-nose which I think will be attributed to a lot of this falling during afternoon daylight hours in E TN.

I think it's also the lack of clouds across eastern areas this morning. Heavy clouds will move in at the worst time after the sun has already pumped the valley into the 40s.   Earlier runs that had less of a warm look never got eastern areas out of the mid/upper 30s.

LP is also north. Surging warmth up the west side of the apps. Just not going to work. I've seen this rodeo before. A lot in Eastern NC with clouds rolling in at terrible times lol.

Here comes the sun doo doo doo doo.... haha 

looks fantastic across the Plateau! Cash in guys! 

Fv3 trending exactly in line with the GFS. Nice uptick across the entire state really.

edit: 12km NAM almost the exact same uptick in qpf.

For what it's worth I'm already 32 here in Erwin.  Wasn't supposed to hit 32 until 3-4am. May not mean a thing though.

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm consistently around the 6" number across all modeling. I always feel like I never want to be there the day before. 

you are sitting pretty my friend. A daytime snow on top of that! 

18z HRRR even warmer for East TN. More snow for the Plateau though! 

4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

The temperature rise is throwing me off. Unless there’s some strong WAA before hand, I’m not understanding my low temp of 27° rising to 37° during the day with elaborative cooling and dynamic cooling going on most of the day. Not sure how well mods handle that kind of thing. I think it’s more likely my low temps are modeled to low. It doesn’t make sense that my low temp tonight will be colder than it was last night with a system approaching. I can a situation where my low temp is around 32 but only rises to 34ish and then it starts to fall off when rain rates pick up.


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I know. Temps in extreme Eastern TN get into the 40s as the storm is moving in. Not sure if the low is forcing warm air up into the area or what. But it does seem strange. 

Morristown mentioned this in their disco but the air in front of this is extremely dry in the low levels.  We will have to moisten our column from the top down this time. This does help with surface temps east of the Plateau though. Hopefully it doesn't soak up all the precip.

models are not being kind to the mountains. Everything dries up.  Hopefully you guys further west score! I'm likely out of this one besides an inch or two. 

5 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

This could be one of those "sneaky" systems for Chattanooga. We laugh because we are prone to getting shut out of snow but it's sort of like poker. You always remember the bad beats but never talk about the 1 or 2 outer you hit to win a big hand.

This is not a wishcast at all, but I've seen several times the moisture was more than predicted and Chattanooga was just on the line of rain/snow. If we happen to get this thing a hair south and hit the transition zone and be on the snow side with rain just to the south of us, I've seen some really heavy snow here when this happens. I'm not writing this one off yet. I'm actually intrigued with a possible surprise here but as we all know in our area, everything has to be perfect. Maybe this will be one of those times. We will know come Thursday!

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk
 

Yep. These systems with a weak Low always seem to be sneaky. We are only dealing with tenths of inches so asking a global model to hit it on the head even 3 days out is asking too much. Which is why @Carvers Gap hit it on the head a couple posts up about smoothing the edges out.  Add .1-.2 inches across an area with 10-15:1 ratios and that's a significant uptick in snowfall.

20 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

I would set that 12z Euro to the side...it does run an almost convective type cells starting on the southern plateau up the valley. I dont see that type of dynamics to support it as @Holston_River_Ramblerpointed out.

Is it possible those intense cells are hindering the moisture transport into the rest of the precip shield? Similar to what happens when a Miller A gets strangled dry by a line of intense storms along the gulf. (I remember a few heartbreakers that fizzled for Eastern NC because of this) That could be the reason behind the euros pretty weak QPF besides the swath of .5+

Definitely one of those storms where the top end is likely 6".  Any more amped for more moisture and this thing misses us all to the north.  Models really have locked on to a pretty decent track for a lot of TN.  But I'm wary of the NW trend over the next day. Atleast this one is our more favorable cold ground higher ratio event.

6" exactly IMBY.  All within exactly 4 hours from first to last flake.  Very impressive considering the first hour temps were above 32 and ground temps. 
 

on frozen ground this was 8" in 4hrs.

Pivot band setting up over eastern areas. Should be 2-3 hrs of crazy rates. Just hit 32. Everything covered. 
 

hrrr says additional 6-7. We will see how much ground truth we get! 

75/25 snow/rain 37.5 was the mark 

37.4 all rain. Any minute now...

Temp accelerating here too. Down to 38.8. Mostly rain. Some sleet. Shouldn't be long!