fountainguy97

Whoever wished for fall is going to get their wish this weekend. Seems to be a permanent move to cooler weather if models are to be believed. 
 

@Carvers Gap I like what I'm seeing in long range models as we head into November.  A few more weeks and the first high elevation event will be on the table. 

It probably doesn't mean anything but man I've been watching the CFS for the last week and it has been consistently SNOWY for much of TN.  Idk what the CFS usually shows but I don't remember it being so snow happy in the past. 
 

It shows a start of winter in mid-November and that lines up with a lot of posters on other forums and my own analog work. 
 

I think we can expect a quick start of winter this year and hopefully some decent blocking in December. Fingers crossed we score before the new year because it seems our chances may start declining after the first half of January. 

Gfs is consistently dropping a nice front through the region between the 22-24th.  Euro also agrees.  I would say this will be the first major "cold snap" of fall and will easily start our leaf season.

This front is only 3-5 days away from pushing across the US. Seems like it's a legit pattern coming up.

Unicoi County has been better off in the rain department than areas just to my west but it's catching us now.  We are starting to get crispy here. My yard is a very dull green with that crispy look.  If we don't get rain soon I am sure we will be in official drought criteria in the next couple of weeks.

Hey guys hope all is well. I tend to go quiet in the summer haha 

We have honestly had a pretty enjoyable summer over here in Unicoi County this year.  We have yet to hit 90 this year with my high being 88.9. It looks like only 5 years in the last 60 went without a single 90+ day for Erwin. There is a lot of summer left though. 

This summer has been incredibly slow as far as thunderstorm activity compared to last year. Maybe last year was a crazy active year for this area.. but this summer has been all but dead for thunderstorms. 
 

My tempest station has only recorded 983 strikes within 22miles so far this July. Half of which happened yesterday.  July 2020 had 13754 and I missed the first 6 days of the month.

With the days slowly getting shorter I am feeling an inner longing for crisp fall days growing every minute. 

Snow falling on green grass this morning... I guess I’ll take it

we have been lucky over here in Unicoi county. Our rain has been spaced out just enough to avoid a lot of flooding, but todays inch is really pushing ditches and creeks to their limits. Good thing today wasn't 2-3 inches. Would require water rescues if that happened.

Just now, PowellVolz said:

Showing some broad rotation now


.

Yeah this gust front is insane. Probably straight from dead quiet to 70+ winds in an instant. 

Beast of a storm heading toward Nashville.

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Nail. On. The. Head. I was thinking yesterday that we have had a clown map to look at almost every week this winter. As soon one marginal mess scoots out, the digital jinn whip up a new mid range threat that has ping-ponged back and forth over the course of 7 - 10 days, to what you said above. It seems like the past few winters we get maybe two periods like that. Usually one in early December and another somewhere later. This winter it has just been one after another. I guess NAOs let us live in interesting times (I'm fully ready for this statement to be bookmarked when I start blabbering on about the Pacific). But "interesting times" can be a curse, lol. I feel like (speaking only for myself) that I just need a recharge for a couple of weeks, and I think that also speaks to Big Bald's point above. Just 2 days of sun have done wonders for my interest in the storm. It's doubled from 0.05% to 0.10%.

 

 

I would 100% buy what the Euro and GFS are selling for next week, if it was actually for sale. Maybe I have reverse jinxed us now! 

Gonna stick my neck out and say EPS member 38 is where this one is going to end up:

 

I'm using the traditional "the map will look like how my yard looked after 6 hours of rain on 2 inches of snow" forecasting method. 

 

 

I have the same feelings and my total is 20” on the year. It certainly doesn’t feel like an above average season.  I’ve had 3 events completely bust.  All 3 had models in agreement on decent snow 18hrs out then poof! 
 

the NW events really saved me this year because the standard storms haven’t panned out at all. 

32.2 and rain for a few hrs now. Lol.

Easy come easy go I guess. 
 

From a non event to an event back to a non event over this way. Scorching at 47 this afternoon. Not a chance there is any major ice or any accumulation.

hope you guys score! And then bring on the 70s. 

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

The 12K is just a nasty mess.  

Not sure I’ve ever seen the COD maps maxed for ZR like this. Yeah that’s 2” lol

Nam drops wild amounts of ice across NE TN. Let’s not go down this road.

Nice trend here on gfs.  NAM is long range still and on an island. It likes to over amp these type of events and push them too far NW. 

Rgem with the 1” ZR amounts across NE TN. We will pass on that.

2.5knches on the board this morning. Surprised! Beautiful heavy snow

Wow half dollars pouring from the sky. 32.0 on the dot. Roads covered instantly

32.2. Heavy rates now. Flakes flying and ground already white! Surprised ground is covered already.

3 consecutive minutes gusting to 29mph here.again a very sheltered station. Could be 35-40mph. Driving rain/snow mix.  Was not expecting this type of wind event. 

Wind event in full force here. My station is in a terrible spot for wind  in our backyard and just hit a gust of 23.  Easily 30+mph just then. 

Hrrr really beefing up this back side precip for the valley. Watch those 2-4”s fill in last few frames.  

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Euro is slightly NW like the rest of the 12z suite.  Its western edge of snow accumulation has definitely trended west over the forum area.  Looks like modeling is defiantly relying on the backside of the precip to be enhanced as the system along the coast pulls northward.  

I think that backside shield will help out totals west of the mountains. The 12z nam went from no backside at 06z to a pretty robust shield of precip.  Hopefully that continues to beef up as we get inside a day this evening.  Nice little “surprise” event.