wasnow215

And I don't think 1/6 solution is finished being baked haha.

Terrible-it has a different solution every run

Was living in Glen Allen then (live in Moseley now). Big time over performer!

Yes! 12/9/18 was the last good one!

Lol! I didn't realize you posted 18z Euro run! Man this is a pasting! Let's lock in right there! Haha

And still are lol-literally the last 2 days the threats get more real not less

18z GFS closer to Euro for 1/6. Blizzard look 3-4 days later.

Could be the biggest threat for 1/6-7 AT THIS POINT is for a 1/2 inch of ice. But still lots of time. Good to see the 10th back on the table. Also GFS re-introduces singles digits lol.

This makes sense thanks!

Not at all lol-the original polar vortex "excitement" was based on some historic forecasted low actual temps even in the lowlands. So my forecasted temperature change question was based more on wondering if something has changed with how the vortex will break down to allow the extreme code to come this far south and east that's all. Cape answered tho.

Thank you!

So do you think every threat we really won't have a good idea until we get to 48 hours out? Because it's so complicated? In addition why does it seem like the forecasted temperatures keep getting warmer? Two days ago it was showing below zero actual temperatures in many areas of this region. Particularly the weekend of January 10 through the 12th. Now for many just teens and maybe a couple single digits overnights- one or two of the nights.

Has anyone else noticed that it seems like with each day the forecasted cold snap doesn't seem as impressive? A few days ago, actually just two days ago, models were showing single digits and close to zero. Especially the weekend of January 10-12. Still showing cold but just not as cold.

Verbatim looks like it would be 3-5" for our area. Second wave

Ohhhhh...got it lol

Some really weird posts the last hour lol. How does a person root against other people's snow? So strange.

@RIC AirportEnsembles for 18z?

Yes 2022-ty!

The coldest day I can remember recently was Christmas Eve 2023. What were the highs and lows that day?

So many hits! Some of them incredible!

Ensembles much better. The upper air pattern is the most important part of why the 1/6-1/10 screams snow imo for our region. Discreet events will work themselves out. So excited for those on this board.

For someone who has done a lot of reading only since I've been on this site for more than a decade now, I would caution those who look at surface maps of the models in a good pattern that we now know is most likely coming, and say "where's the snow" or "suppression" in the same way we shouldn't take one or 2 model runs that show snow 10-12 days out in a bad pattern and think that'll happen. Right now the pattern, ensembles, and MJO etc all scream at least some snow. Seeing discrete events or not at this point is not close to the most important thing for those (like most of us), who want snow.

Volume 106 Issue 10 is one of my faves hahahaha

Here's one... Inauguration Day in 1985, which was the coldest January Inauguration Day on record, according to the National Weather Service. This was President Ronald Reagan's second inauguration after being reelected, and with temperatures at just 7 degrees at noon, his swearing-in ceremony was moved inside and the traditional parade was canceled. Temperature that day fell to a low of 4 degrees below zero, with wind chills as low as minus-20 degrees.

The set up at least is for cold and snow! 500 mill bar ensemble runs continue to scream at least some snow in the period we are all looking at and vodka cold to keep it around.