GaWx

Recon is on the way. Where any possible low level center is found will be very important to say the least.

0Z Euro ens: only very slight E shift and slightly faster; mean landfall is Apalachicola Thu evening; then it goes N into far W GA and then NNW into NE AL. W of GEFS mean.

Hurricane models are way off the chart strong, but are they even useful yet since there’s not yet a definite LLC?

Unlike GFS/Icon, the 0Z Euro doesn’t appear to be shifting E so far. Upper low not shifted E like on those. Landfall Apalachicola late Thu afternoon at 982. Goes near AL/GA line (W of ATL). 12Z went through ATL.

0Z GEFS, with upper low being 250 miles E of 18Z, has its mean landfall 175 miles E of the 18Z’s Pensacola or just E of Apalachicola. The mean then instead of going NNW through AL travels N into SW GA. So, more/fewer members than last run in GA/AL although AL still has a decent # of members.

0Z UKMET vs 12Z is perhaps slightly E/2 mb stronger (985) with landfall still near Apalachicola late Thu evening and then to Atlanta midday Fri: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 18.8N 83.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 24.09.2024 24 18.8N 83.0W 1002 32 1200UTC 24.09.2024 36 18.9N 84.8W 1002 36 0000UTC 25.09.2024 48 19.7N 85.1W 999 38 1200UTC 25.09.2024 60 21.6N 86.2W 996 41 0000UTC 26.09.2024 72 23.4N 86.3W 992 44 1200UTC 26.09.2024 84 25.9N 85.3W 988 52 0000UTC 27.09.2024 96 29.2N 84.8W 985 46 1200UTC 27.09.2024 108 33.1N 84.1W 990 32 0000UTC 28.09.2024 120 36.7N 85.4W 998 19 1200UTC 28.09.2024 132 39.2N 87.9W 1003 24 0000UTC 29.09.2024 144 39.8N 92.2W 1007 13 1200UTC 29.09.2024 156 CEASED T

0Z CMC similar to 12Z with Apalachee Bay at 973 mb late Thu afternoon followed by Atlanta 981 Thu night.

0Z GFS also looks to come in a good bit E of its prior runs. The upper low, similar to the case for the 0Z Icon, is further E. Confirmed: 948 mb left side of Big Bend late Thu afternoon. Not nearly as far E as Icon and then tracks into N-C GA.

The upper low on the 0Z Icon is way to east of prior runs. Landfall 975 mb just N of Tampa Thu afternoon!

0Z Icon is coming in well to the east of recent runs with the upper low well to the east of prior runs.

Wow, Don, until you posted this I wasn’t even aware of the extreme Sep -NAO about to occur. According to the latest GEFS based NAO forecast (see below), it is expected to bottom out way down near -2.7 at some point during 9/23-5! That would easily exceed the record lowest Sep daily NAO as the current record low is -2.371, set on 9/12/1971. The only other Sep with any sub -2 daily was 1986. The record low for any month is -3.254, set on 10/21/2002. 9/22/24 GEFS based NAO forecast:

18Z GEFS mean: even further west near Pensacola, which is 50 miles W of 12Z, and then N into AL

This 18Z Icon is well E of the 12Z, showing that there’s still (not surprisingly) a lot of uncertainty.

Moderate to low end strong as best as I can tell per DJF.

Who’s dismissing Webb? You’re probably not talking about me, but in case you are I take him with a grain due to several bad misses but I’m not dismissing him. If I did, I wouldn’t have quoted him to bring him into the discussion. Taking with a grain and dismissing are two different things (at least the way I define them). I assume you agree. I take many seasonal forecasts with a grain due to the difficulty in making winter forecasts, especially early.

12Z EPS: mean landfall Thu night near Apalachicola and then it moves N fairly close to GA/AL border; many either W half of lower GA or E half of lower AL; mean a bit E of 6Z, which was in E AL and perhaps very slightly E of 0Z

12Z Euro 982 Thu evening in vicinity of Apalachicola; Atlanta Fri AM at 992

GEFS: 12Z mean has a significant shift NW vs prior runs with many more going through AL vs earlier runs

Fortunately Icon, CMC, and UKMET are much weaker though UKMET often is too weak this far out. 12Z UKMET: ~12 hours earlier landfall (Thu night) than and ~75 miles W of 0Z pretty close to Apalachicola at ~987 mb vs ~993 mb on 0Z: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 17.9N 85.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 24.09.2024 48 18.0N 86.0W 1003 29 0000UTC 25.09.2024 60 18.2N 85.5W 1002 30 1200UTC 25.09.2024 72 20.3N 86.2W 998 40 0000UTC 26.09.2024 84 21.7N 86.2W 995 39 1200UTC 26.09.2024 96 24.0N 86.0W 992 44 0000UTC 27.09.2024 108 27.4N 85.1W 989 56 1200UTC 27.09.2024 120 31.3N 84.7W 987 39 0000UTC 28.09.2024 132 36.4N 84.7W 992 21 1200UTC 28.09.2024 144 40.5N 87.2W 996 34 0000UTC 29.09.2024 156 42.3N 91.4W 1000 21 1200UTC 29.09.2024 168 39.0N 94.3W 1004 13

TT 12Z GFS SLPs ~8 mb lower than my source

12Z GFS just slightly E of 6Z but well NW of 0Z with ~942 mb near Panama City moving N

What do you think about this from Eric Webb about what he calls very warm water centered on 150E? @bluewave@snowman19and others. Eric has had big busts before in winter forecasts though. So, I take him with a grain like I do most. “Why is the warmth ~150°E in the Tropical West Pacific important? Anomalous Tropical West Pacific warmth normally favors more frequent high-latitude blocking (-EPO/-WPO) over the North Pacific rim during the winter.”

The 12Z Icon is much quicker than its prior runs and is now much closer to the timing of the consensus. Although much further E early, this much quicker movement allows it to be captured by the cutoff H5 low and it then moves N to near Panama City at 984 mb late Thu night followed by a NNW move through AL.

It is not finished, but the 12Z Icon is much faster and well E of its prior runs with it missing the Yucatan to the E for the first time. It look like it is going to be similar to the 0Z Euro.

6Z Euro-AI shifted ~50 miles NW of its 0Z with it coming in to the middle of the Big Bend vs the far rt portion of it on the 0Z