GaWx

Hi Don, I respect you immensely and therefore feel the need to tell you that it looks like there’s a major problem with the Yakutat temperature sensor. Please check out this link to hourlies for the last few days: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PAYA.html a t e Time (akst) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. Temperature (ºF) Relative Humidity Wind Chill (°F) Heat Index (°F) Pressure Precipitation (in.) Air Dwpt 6 hour altimeter (in) sea level (mb) 1 hr 3 hr 6 hr Max. Min. 17 17:53 E 5 10.00 Overcast BKN037 OVC055 36 29 76% 32 NA 29.33 993.3 17 16:53 NE 7 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW029 35 28 76% 29 NA 29.34 993.6 17 15:53 E 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy SCT030 SCT040 BKN050 36 30 79% NA NA 29.35 993.8 17 14:53 E 9 10.00 Overcast OVC036 36 30 79% 29 NA 29.36 994.2 17 13:53 E 8 10.00 Light Rain OVC040 36 30 79% 30 NA 29.37 994.6 17 12:53 E 6 10.00 Light Rain FEW027 BKN040 OVC055 35 32 89% 30 NA 29.37 994.5 17 11:53 Calm 10.00 Light Rain BKN038 OVC045 NA NA NA NA NA 29.36 994.4 17 10:53 Calm 10.00 Mostly Cloudy SCT046 BKN055 NA NA NA NA NA 29.35 994.1 17 09:53 NE 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN050 NA NA NA NA NA 29.35 994.1 17 08:53 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT085 NA NA NA NA NA 29.33 993.4 17 07:53 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT120 NA NA NA NA NA 29.33 993.4 17 06:53 Calm 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN110 NA NA NA NA NA 29.34 993.7 17 05:53 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT110 NA NA NA NA NA 29.36 994.4 17 04:53 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT100 NA NA NA NA NA 29.38 995.1 17 03:53 NE 5 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW038 NA NA NA -11 NA 29.41 996.1 17 02:53 E 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN044 NA NA NA NA NA 29.44 997.1 0.01 17 01:53 NE 5 10.00 Overcast SCT034 OVC042 NA NA NA -11 NA 29.47 998.1 17 00:53 E 5 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN028 NA NA NA -11 NA 29.50 999.1 16 23:53 NE 7 10.00 Overcast BKN026 OVC033 NA NA NA -13 NA 29.54 1000.5 0.01 0.01 16 22:53 NE 8 10.00 Overcast BKN023 BKN036 OVC044 NA NA NA -14 NA 29.57 1001.5 16 21:53 E 9 10.00 Overcast OVC021 NA NA NA -15 NA 29.58 1001.8 16 20:53 E 8 10.00 Overcast BKN020 BKN025 OVC033 NA NA NA -14 NA 29.60 1002.5 0.07 16 19:53 NE 7 10.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW018 SCT025 BKN120 NA NA NA -13 NA 29.61 1002.9 16 18:53 NE 7 10.00 Overcast FEW021 BKN055 OVC110 NA NA NA -13 NA 29.62 1003.2 16 17:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast SCT018 OVC120 NA NA NA -12 NA 29.64 1003.9 0.01 0.07 16 16:53 Calm 5.00 Light Rain BKN017 OVC023 NA NA NA NA NA 29.65 1004.2 0.04 16 15:53 E 7 10.00 Overcast OVC011 NA NA NA -13 NA 29.66 1004.6 0.02 16 14:53 E 5 4.00 Rain BKN009 OVC013 NA NA NA -11 NA 29.67 1004.9 0.08 0.24 16 13:53 E 10 8.00 Light Rain OVC008 NA NA NA -16 NA 29.66 1004.6 16 12:53 E 8 10.00 Overcast OVC006 NA NA NA -14 NA 29.66 1004.6 0.07 16 11:53 E 9 3.00 Light Rain FEW008 BKN013 OVC023 48 38 68% 44 NA 29.64 1003.7 0.06 0.09 16 10:53 E 9 3.00 Light Rain OVC012 52 37 57% NA NA 29.63 1003.3 0.03 16 09:53 E 8 3.00 Light Rain Fog/Mist OVC016 37 36 96% 31 NA 29.61 1002.7 16 08:53 E 10 10.00 Light Rain OVC033 37 35 57 37 93% 30 NA 29.59 1002.1 0.04 0.13 16 07:53 E 8 9.00 Light Rain OVC027 37 35 93% 31 NA 29.58 1001.8 0.04 16 06:53 E 5 10.00 Light Rain OVC026 48 35 61% 46 NA 29.58 1001.8 0.02 16 05:53 SE 3 10.00 Light Rain OVC030 51 33 50% NA NA 29.58 1001.5 0.01 0.03 16 04:53 SE 7 10.00 Light Rain OVC034 55 32 42% NA NA 29.57 1001.3 0.01 16 03:53 SE 7 10.00 Light Rain OVC034 55 34 45% NA NA 29.55 1000.7 0.01 16 02:53 E 9 10.00 Light Rain OVC048 56 33 61 42 42% NA NA 29.52 999.8 16 01:53 E 5 10.00 Overcast OVC046 50 28 43% 48 NA 29.53 1000.0 16 00:53 NE 6 10.00 Light Rain OVC050 55 27 34% NA NA 29.53 1000.0 15 23:53 E 5 10.00 Overcast OVC050 53 27 37% NA NA 29.54 1000.4 15 22:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast OVC060 53 25 34% NA NA 29.55 1000.7 15 21:53 E 7 10.00 Overcast OVC060 49 25 39% 46 NA 29.56 1001.0 15 20:53 NE 12 10.00 Overcast BKN070 OVC090 51 24 60 36 35% NA NA 29.58 1001.6 15 19:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast FEW055 BKN070 OVC100 58 26 29% NA NA 29.61 1002.8 15 18:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast OVC055 51 27 39% NA NA 29.64 1003.6 15 17:53 E 5 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN055 49 28 44% 47 NA 29.65 1004.2 15 16:53 SE 5 10.00 Overcast OVC055 54 29 38% NA NA 29.68 1005.0 15 15:53 E 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW050 BKN060 BKN075 37 30 76% NA NA 29.70 1005.9 15 14:53 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT046 40 29 56 40 65% NA NA 29.73 1006.7 15 13:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast FEW049 OVC065 49 30 48% 46 NA 29.76 1007.8 15 12:53 NE 8 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN035 BKN046 43 30 60% 38 NA 29.78 1008.5 15 11:53 NE 8 10.00 Overcast SCT033 BKN040 OVC047 52 31 45% NA NA 29.81 1009.4 15 10:53 E 9 10.00 Overcast BKN040 OVC048 56 29 36% NA NA 29.83 1010.0 15 09:53 E 6 10.00 Light Rain OVC041 54 29 38% NA NA 29.84 1010.4 15 08:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast FEW033 BKN046 OVC060 51 30 54 41 45% NA NA 29.84 1010.4 15 07:53 E 6 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN048 BKN065 51 30 45% NA NA 29.84 1010.6 15 06:53 NE 8 10.00 Overcast OVC048 46 30 54% 42 NA 29.86 1011.0 15 05:53 NE 9 10.00 Overcast OVC046 47 31 54% 43 NA 29.87 1011.6 15 04:53 NE 7 10.00 Overcast OVC044 47 31 54% 44 NA 29.89 1012.1 15 03:53 NE 6 10.00 Overcast OVC043 47 31 54% 44 NA 29.90 1012.5 15 02:53 NE 7 10.00 Overcast OVC046 49 31 51 38 50% 46 NA 29.91 1012.7 15 01:53 E 5 10.00 Overcast OVC048 43 31 63% 40 NA 29.92 1013.3 15 00:53 NE 6 10.00 Overcast OVC048 46 31 56% 43 NA 29.93 1013.6 14 23:53 E 5 10.00 Overcast OVC047 46 32 58% 44 NA 29.94 1013.7 14 22:53 E 3 10.00 Overcast FEW024 BKN039 OVC049 46 32 58% NA NA 29.94 1013.7 14 21:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast FEW026 SCT037 OVC047 50 32 50% 48 NA 29.94 1013.7 14 20:53 E 3 10.00 Overcast OVC034 50 32 55 39 50% NA NA 29.94 1013.9 14 19:53 E 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN120 55 32 42% NA NA 29.94 1014.0 14 18:53 NE 6 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN038 46 34 63% 43 NA 29.95 1014.3 D a t e Time (akst) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. Air Dwpt Max. Min. Relative Humidity Wind Chill (°F) Heat Index (°F) altimeter (in Don, here are just 2 examples of hourlies that look bogus: 1. 16:53 on 12/15 is at 54 F, a rise of a whopping 17 in one hour from the 37 the previous hour while overcast?? That can’t be. And the winds didn’t change much. Light E to light SE. So, no major warm front/airmass change it would appear. 2. At 9:53 on Dec 16th it was 37 and it then rose a whopping 15 in one hour under light rain to 52 with continued light E winds. I may post more later about the problems with this station when time permits.

The way the first half of Oct. 2012 is looking per models, it would appear that it will likely be a good bit colder than 1991 fwiw. However, that would only put a fairly small dent in the +1.6. Nov. 1991 was quite chilly. So, it will be quite difficult for 11/2012 to be colder than that 11/1991. Now, Dec. 1991 was very warm. So, if we could get a cold Dec., rather big gains could be made then. Regardless, overcoming 1.6 F in Oct.-Dec. will be very tough.