GaWx

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...USE CAUTION AFTER THE STORM AS DEADLY HAZARDS REMAIN INCLUDING DOWNED POWERLINES AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM IMPROPER GENERATOR USE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 95.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES A National Ocean Service station near the entrance to Galveston Bay (GNJT2) recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h), and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). Huntsville Municipal Airport (KUTS) in Texas measured a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h), and Beaumont/Port Arthur Regional Airport (KBPT) recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The cooling of the weeklies has been unexpectedly mainly nonexistent since late May! The June -5 SOI had a say in that. There has been a lingering shallow warm layer per ocean depth maps shown by @Stormchaserchuck1and @so_whats_happening(down to 75-100 meters) that has been stubborn due to overall warmth. I earlier thought RONI had a good shot at a dip to moderate to strong La Nina by autumn but as of now it is looking like moderate at the strongest with weak increasing in probability.

Relentless in Houston: Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Corrected Header ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH) recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 95.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

These were 10AM CDT conditions in Houston with it having just been downgraded to a TS: HOUSTON BUSH HVY RAIN 74 73 97 SE55G82 29.25F VSB 1/4 TC 23 HOUSTON HOBBY LGT RAIN N/A N/A N/A S48G75 29.37R Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Houston Hobby Airport recently reported a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h), and Bush Intercontinental Airport recently reported a wind gust of 83 mph (134 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches) based on surface observations. ——————————- Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Despite being overland for about 6 hours, NWS radar and surface data indicate that the system has only slightly weakened, with a fairly well-defined eye present. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, as a compromise of Doppler wind velocities and surface observations. While Beryl is no longer a hurricane, there are still many life-threatening hazards associated with the storm, and these are detailed in the Key Messages below.

Just out from NHC (9AM CDT): Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 900 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE HOUSTON AREA... ...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Hobby Airport (KHOU) recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 84 mph (135 km/h). A National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Morgans Point recently measured a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph (124 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

From NHC at 8AM CDT: A mesonet station (FRPT2) in Freeport recently reported a wind gust of 94 mph (151 km/h). A National Ocean Service (NOS) station (GNJT2) at the entrance to Galveston Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 73 mph (117 km/h) and a gust of 82 mph (131 km/h). A USGS gauge at Galveston Railroad Bridge recently reported an inundation of 3.6 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 95.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

A strengthening 1 is often worse than a weakening 2.

That’s a long lag (10-15 days)!

Also, per that chart, it was technically still in 2/3 but with very low amp during the storm.

8AM CDT: couple of cities HOUSTON HOBBY LGT RAIN 79 77 94 SE49G76 29.33 BAY CITY CLOUDY 73 73 98 W46G60 29.36R Just 2 hours earlier the pressure was 28.94 in Bay City and 29.49 in Houston Hobby (HH). Note the 77 dewpoint at HH allowing for flooding rainfall. Winds gusted to 76 there at 7:53 AM CDT!

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...BERYL NEARING THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...200 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Beryl is nearing the middle Texas coast and is expected to make landfall within the next few hours. Conditions are deteriorating with dangerous storm surge and flash flooding. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds and hurricane-force wind gust have already been reported along the coast. A WeatherFlow station (XMBG) located at Matagorda Bay recently reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a gust of 75 mph (120 km/h). Another position update will be provided at 300 AM CDT (0800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 95.9W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly

Live stream from Sargent Beach:

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 100 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...BERYL STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 95.9W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 95.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected this morning. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast during the next several hours. Beryl is forecast to turn northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and coastal Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected before the center reaches the Texas coast. Significant weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Matagorda, Texas, recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

Apparently this was one of the reasons for upgrade to hurricane: These radar echoes were the reasoning for the upgrade of #Beryl. Winds up to 88 mph are being measured at about 10,000 feet aloft. That translates into surface winds of 75 mph, supporting a hurricane. https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1810163899653648530 Also, the decision may have been influenced by this buoy report: NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). The buoy also reported a pressure of 992.2 mb (29.30 inches). In addition, the latest dropsonde posted above showed pressure dropped to 985 mb.

Beryl is now a hurricane. 11:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 Location: 27.7°N 95.7°W Moving: NNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 985 mb Max sustained: 75 mph

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 513 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TX AND INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALVIN, ANAHUAC, ANGLETON, BAY CITY, CLEVELAND, CLUTE, CONROE, DAYTON, DICKINSON, FIRST COLONY, FREEPORT, FRIENDSWOOD, GALVESTON, HOUSTON, LAKE JACKSON, LEAGUE CITY, LIBERTY, MISSION BEND, MISSOURI CITY, MONT BELVIEU, OLD RIVER-WINFREE, PALACIOS, PEARLAND, PECAN GROVE, ROSENBERG, STOWELL, SUGAR LAND, TEXAS CITY, THE WOODLANDS, AND WINNIE.

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Radar and satellite trends suggest Beryl is becoming better organized tonight. Deep convection has increased near the center, with new convective elements emerging around the northern and southern portions of the circulation. Tail Doppler Radar data from the NOAA aircraft suggest the radius of maximum wind has contracted a bit, and the vortex has become more vertically aligned. However, the eyewall is open to the west, where there is still some evidence of dry air in the circulation. The intensity was raised to 60 kt based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level wind data (66 kt at 700 mb), and the most recent aircraft pass through the northeast quadrant still supports the 60-kt intensity for this advisory. The minimum pressure has continued to slowly fall, with the latest dropsonde data supporting 986 mb. The environmental and oceanic conditions remain quite favorable for intensification while Beryl approaches the Texas coast overnight. The recent structural changes noted above are expected to allow Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane overnight, and the potential for significant intensification leading up to landfall is still indicated by some of the regional hurricane guidance, particularly the HWRF and HMON. At this point, time is the greatest limiting factor as the storm is less than 12 h from landfall. While the 12-h forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected while the system moves farther inland. The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt, but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning. The short-term NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.6N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 29.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 33.7N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 36.0N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 10/1200Z 38.4N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 40.4N 84.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 38...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Correct break point to Port Bolivar in Tropical Storm Warning ...BERYL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST EARLY MONDAY... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 95.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch from San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. The Hurricane Warning south of Mesquite Bay has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Baffin Bay has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Mesquite Bay to Port Aransas.

Was the last dropsonde at 988? If so, do you know when that was?

Live stream from Sargent, TX (Josh M. is also there):

That’s down ~2 mb from an extrap pass 1.5 hours earlier. If this slow rate of fall were to persist through the projected time of landfall, that would still mean a further drop of 10 mb well down into the 970s. But with the broad center, I’m thinking it may need to get below 970 mb to have a shot at cat 2.

LAS VEGAS FAIR 118 17 3 NW7G20 29.75F 6HR MIN TEMP: 107; 6HR MAX TEMP: 120 So, Las Vegas made it all of the way to 120! That beats their old all-time record high by 3! https://kamala.cod.edu/nv/latest.asus45.REV.KREV.html

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 95.6W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning south of Port Aransas has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning south of Port Aransas, including Corpus Christi Bay, has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Port Mansfield has been discontinued.

Down to 985.5 mb (extrapolated) at 5:55PM CDT at 27.0N, 95.7W per recon but dropsondes 988 mb.

I’m waiting for confirmation, but it appears that Las Vegas has set a new all-time record high today of at least 118 F! This would beat 117, which had been hit five times. Records go back to 1937. Models are calling for more very hot days much of the upcoming work-week. With a RH of a mere 3%/dewpoint of 16, the LV heat index is “only” ~106.