Pattern recognition is NOT a lucky guess. It is recognizing a pattern(s) and understanding the impacts the pattern(s) may have or may not have. The patterns the last several years have produced record warmth all over the northern hemisphere. Warmth can and has impacted snowfall. ..and that is not debatable.
Many places in the northern hemisphere are experiencing their warmest year on record. It only stood to reason that if the warmth continued into late fall and winter that it would have an impact on snowfall....deductive reasoning is NOT a "lucky guess"...
So far this past fall and early winter there has been a continuation of the record warmth across the northern hemisphere. And that has led to well below normal snowfall. At this point there needs to be a significant shift in the pattern to prevent the winter of 23-24 from being a complete dud.