SR Airglow

Looking at radar, I can't buy the RGEM or GFS. I'd probably go 8-14 for NYC right now. Still an awesome storm, but a big bust from earlier calls. This is what we did for CT, I think some of the far northwestern areas might be closer to 8 than 12 but to make a third zone on the map is a PITA so we just left it plus Norfolk always seems to get stupid totals. And oh yeah, it's absolutely nuking heavy snow right now. Easily 2"+ per hour.

.33 since 1 PM, .02 before 1 PM.

My thoughts. Look at the initialization of the 18z suite/hour 3 and compare it to current conditions at H5. The only model that was remotely close to being correct was the NAM, the RGEM and GFS were way too far east with the setup. Look at the obs coming out of NYC already. The park is reporting 4.5" already and there are reasonably widespread 3-5" totals in the area. The GFS/RGEM, which have 5-10 total, are already close to busting(RGEM especially which had less than .6" liquid and nyc has .37, do you really think they only see .23" more) The 21z RAP is well west of the 20z RAP(20 miles or so) and made a decided trend towards letting the convection influence the low less. This matches the NAM. The Euro has been locked into the western track for days. To see it bust would be absolutely monumental, whereas I can believe the GFS being wrong due to it's poor performance and initialization scheme. At this point, my afternoon forecast will be based off the NAM and the EURO and discarding all other models. I'm taking a shot here, hope it works. I have absolutely no confidence, but it's time to make a call, and so I'm making one. Hope luck is on my side.

DIT jumping off the Q bridge after seeing the NAM? He still gets 15", but holy subsidence there. It looks like the I91 corridor or just east is the favorite right now to get that local min, but you never know where the bands form...

I'm expecting 2'+ for BOS at this point.

There's a weenie 42" spot just SW of BOS yes.

Euro is a BOS to Scoot to TAN jackpot it looks like. 3'+

Euro has 1.2" QPF in 6 hours for BOS between 6z and 12z. Jesus.

Euro holds on the position of the low, slightly drier on the western side but still 20"+ for NYC. Jesus christ. At this point, considering what WPC said, it's time to ride it.

OKX went up again.

MT @MassEMA: @MassGovernor announces statewide travel ban at midnight tonight (Mon 1/26) until further notice

WPC is going with a blend of 0z Euro and 12z NAM, says the current conditions at H5 argue for a further west track closer to those models.

Good lord. NAM has two jackpot areas: Berks/WCT/NYC and then SEMA, but everyone is destroyed.

2"+ QPF.

Good luck folks. Euro out to hour 0.

Steve can I get BOS please? Thanks!

And so is being rain while you're SN++ as often happens to him. Get the point?

I'm not really worried for your area, sure you might get 12-18 instead of 18-24 but you're still measuring in feet not inches. I'm much more worried about NYC which is another 25 mile shift east from advisory totals. You need 100 miles east or so to take you out of 1'+ which I don't think is happening.

RGEM is definitely coming in east of the 12z and possibly the 18z run it appears, hard to tell off the stupid black and whites. And glad we're back up, was having trouble logging in earlier but seems like that's resolved.