JC-CT

What's kind of funny is so did the 6z GFS

CGW

GEFS improved look imo, but very two-campy

100%

I mean, okay lol. I'd rather the GFS show that, but I'd take a Euro/CMC tandem too.

That shortwave out of canada didnt even exist on the GFS a few runs ago. Maybe it saves the day?

Looks almost like a complete separation of the s/ws.

If a model was going to hug, not surprised CMC would be the one to do it, based on its ensembles last night. Some were waaay west.

I'm saying we still have time h5 shenanigans, but it's not unlimited. We are entering the model time frame where the models start to gain real skill. I don't want this whiffing 24 hours from now. Today's run should be weighted much higher than yesterday's runs due to the models starting to enter the skill range, but the next 24-48 hours are huge. Nothing we dont already know.

I mean, I don't 100% disagree with you, but I don't 100% agree with you either. If the trough isn't oriented favorably at that 84hr mark when our sw is coming down the ridge, all the little micro changes in timing and sw strength don't really mean all that much wrt to how close we come to maximizing the storms potential. It certainly could mean the difference between a foot and nothing for ORH, for example... but the multi region hecs potential is currently on a telemed zoom call with its pcp...pretty soon we might be taking an ambulance ride to the ICU.

No, they cant

The flatter heights downstream are just killing us

Yeah it's more like 18z but displaced east. The handling of the sw in the west conus was way different.

There are definitely some similarities to the 18z run this time.

Of course, a better pna ridge and stronger sw could offset that and then some. I guess we will see, only 2X something cycles to go

One of the multi-cycle corrections I was talking about is that the missed Wednesday deal keeps getting flatter/more progressive...that seems to be flattening heights upstream of this one. That trend continues on 12z. Probably bad.

I think the PNA ridge looks a bit better this GFS run

In all seriousness, this is the time frame where modeling tends to make sizeable corrections towards the general solution, often moving the same way wrt to certain facets over multiple cycles...I think the concern is the possibility that 48 hours from now, we will need a 400 mile correction.

Let me test my understanding...the "pulling" of the long wave trough east is possible but not necessarly "standard." If the lw trough does get pulled east, it would probably deamplify the sw, thus limiting the pulling of the trough axis? What about the dynamic of a strong sw raising heights out in front of it...isnt that a factor that typically is a natural limiter of a strong sw destroying the lw trough it is embedded in? Usually we are talking about other factors besides the main sw being the culprits of moving around the 500mb trough. Also thank you for taking the time to answer my question, really appreciate it.

Fking March 2014 all over, what a shame

Maybe for brooklyn

Would you mind elaborating a little on what this means? I genuinely don't understand.

You bastard

Please do...while kevin is still taking the rare midseason loss. It wont last long.