JC-CT

4 td game

I'd bet a good majority of people here are thinking the same thing and will legitimately be disappointed if it doesn't. Myself included.

remind me again, is that earthlight?

What is the ratio of Kev's "confused face" reactions to his other reactions? 9:1?

yeah, those "just outside of the bm" members really weren't very good for much of subforum.

in weather modeling, sure, because it's completely chaotic

In most things it is

thx, what I suspected

good, so if it tracks over me, dryslot can enjoy his flooding rains

Does anyone have panels of the indies

It's an interesting conversation...maybe someday we will figure out a way to start tracking and measuring these kind of things. It's probably doable with some manual effort. It's like, at what point does the inherent odds of an adjustment one way vs another exceed the benefit of simply having the most room for adjustment while still getting a decent outcome that you get with the bm-like track? I'm not sure the answer. I'd also say, with the caveat that I know it's an obvious thing to say, that there's a difference between wanting it to be a scraper because you think it will trend west vs saying you are happy with it being 500 miles east of the benchmark because "they come west." Like, there's a limit there to what I'd be comfortable with. Some of those 12z OP runs were starting to push it a little.

Yeah, I say that a little tongue in cheek. But I feel like a lot of the "oh it's going to trend this way or that way because x or y model bias or because of z pattern recognition" is usually either anecdotal or at best a relatively minor factor when compared to "the models are often just wrong, in any and every way imaginable." So I'd ALWAYS rather be in the bullseye, because who knows which adjustments will happen and which ones will offset, etc etc. Not wanting to be in the bullseye at N hours out is, to me, a bit superstitious.

I'd take anything that gives Brett rain

Maybe it's where you want it. It's not where I want it.

yeah

I'm naming this storm Jason Tatum

Well I wouldn't think we should have to worry too much about suppression to start the month at least

Hope she recovers soon. Same

THE KING HAS SPOKEN

The counterpoint is the OPs agree with each other on which side of the ensembles they are on, which also agree with the germans and the british (which notoriously do not like to agree, as many historians have noted).

GEFS for comparison

Yeah, I mean...da fook?

EPS says the OP is kind of out to lunch? I do like that both GFS/Euro OPs were on the wide right envelope of their ensembles

I mean, I did...but I was joking

I think it's fair to ask, if holding the energy back in the sw is a bias specific to the Euro OP, then why is the GFS OP even more pronounced with it