JC-CT
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Everything posted by JC-CT
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extremely. it's over, my deepest apologies. -
you probably needed half a degree cooler
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look, let's just start here and work our way up
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let's play where's the coastal front
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This run might be "that one"
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it looks pretty good to me through 105. we'll see!
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Apologize if posted already. Says nothing except they agree it's not going over buffalo.
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if the rapid deepening happens up here at our latitude, it should be fine. but yeah, nobody wants a storm that is already occluded before it gets here
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It's currently named Jimmy Garoppalo. Very subject to change.
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this is all true. also why some of these deep ensemble members showing up haven't actually been that great region-wide. But there is something historic about a storm that strong that is cool in its own right.
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It's a tradeoff between that and wind
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Pretty much everything has been determined except for exactly how much for philly
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If you were a model developer, you would want the model to account for that bias. Please let me live in my fantasy world where perfect is good.
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I'm fine with it going over my head, if it's going to be a sub 950 low.
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If we are being honest with ourselves and said, if we were model developers, what would we want an ensemble mean to look like at 132 hours for a storm that verifies over or just inside the benchmark...that has to be pretty close to it.
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I'm naming this storm Jimmy Garoppolo
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Yeah, qpf increasing each run is expected with ensemble means this far out because its slowly dropping off members that are way off the grid, plus just that it's still 5 away days. I thought the 0z mean didnt look bad either. There are more west members at 6z though.
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Question for you - do you know if stormvistas snow total mean is a mean of the member snow totals, or more like running the snow algorithm on the mean?
