JC-CT

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lol ya HRRR is ugly for him

it's ugly for you too

uncongrats GFS

but I think we all knew that already

congrats nobody south of the pike

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree. ZR is terrible and does nothing for me. Sleet, on the other hand, is still fun and can whiten the landscape.

sleet is just prepackaged slush

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah we’re waiting on the midlevels. The NAM sucks for us and the gfs trended worse. We’re really close though (especially me) so I’m not giving up yet.

gl up there

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems to be the general theme as we close in . Most stuff moving towards RAP idea 

These runs are all 18z?

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nam and HRRR

Yeah maybe a little bit. They are all kind of within an hour or two of each other with the changeover. The bigger difference is what happens before that. Both the NAM and HRRR are a lot uglier with high dews and temps than the GFS.

The GFS is definitely less torchy with the dews than the NAM.

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Less plain rain faster push more sleet 

Compared to what

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Pong?

Mostly ping, but maybe some pong in there too

ping city

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He got 15" though and lives at 900ft so no one was wiping his pack away. Ours, yea...in trouble. 

it will probably still be there in some form, but it will take a hit for sure

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pack stays That’s massive 

It was still 18+ hours straight of dews above 40

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

wear a hat if you go outside

Just now, ineedsnow said:

heavy snow at hr 45 for me 

thanks for sharing the particulars of your backyard

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM's going to savage someone with sleet.

a lot of people

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

FWIW FRAM

I mean, it's not nothing. Curious why BOX hasn't updated their AFD today, I'd really like to know if they still think very minimal accretion outside of western zones.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a close call...the warm layer is also pretty fat on that and approaching 5C...gets hard to refreeze into pellets when that happens.....BUT, the cold layer is REALLY cold. It is even harder to NOT refreeze into pellets when your cold layer is -8C. Typically when the cold layer gets to -6C or so, ZR becomes difficult unless the -6C layer is right near the ground, which in this case it is not.

So I'd prob say that is a sleet sounding....though maybe sort of a mix of sleet and ZR is possible too, but I'd be surprised if that was mostly ZR.

Makes sense - it's both the height of the warm and cold layers, plus how warm and cold they are.

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya it depends exactly how warm we get too.

 

Outta thread but I almost had a heart attack I thought I loaded the wrong map I thought it was hrrr but it was gfs at hour 300 and it has a major ice storm like 2” of ice. Whoops.. here’s hrrr

That's qpf right? Not accretion?

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s looked like rain to start for all of SNE.. perhaps a bit north into CNE.. I’ve never once thought it wasn’t going to rain. I have not agreed with warm 50’s inches but f rain and dews wiping out the snowpack to ORH. We’ve all been on these boards and into wx long enough to know when you don’t have a wrapped up storm and weaker waves the cold drains, pressed happen earlier than modeled almost always. I’m not expecting any snow at all except maybe at the tail end unless colder trends continue . For now I’m thinking rain to zr to sleet ending as snow. Is that so far off base? 

It's going to start as rain to Canada. It's literally already raining all along Canadian border in NY state.

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Colder for freezing rain at end. Warmer for the Pac-Man eating pack. 

I'm not an expert at all at figuring out sleet vs freezing rain...but this is a pretty deep cold layer, no? ptype algo is showing FZRA but I'm guessing it's an IP/FZ mix.

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

starts off a tad warmer then 12z but ends up colder in some place

Yeah, I'm definitely thinking there will be some amount of wintry precip all the way down to the shore. It's just that it's definitely gonna rain first, when it does change over it will probably go from fz to pellets fairly quickly, and snow is probably going to be minimal due to completely torched mids (850).

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes the HRRR 2 days out is known to do a bang up up job on frontal placement. 

Well you threw out all the other models

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Enjoy the pack while you have it CT folks! Hold onto it tightly tonight. 

okay, it's hard not to laugh at that sliver of 50 tickling kev's fanny.