JC-CT

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where is the mesolow ? NYC area and south coast are still in low 30’s, so something must be near or just south of LI

Off the jersey shore

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

What kind of illegal street drugs are people taking out there. Looking for massive damage from ice and wind. Think of your f'in neighbors if you don't have the intelligence to worry about your own. Sorry for the rant, but it's insane to want destruction and mayhem.

Sir, this is a Wendy's drive thru

One of the more annoying things to me is when people say "it was never going to happen" or "the pattern never supported it" when multiple different products showed the exact thing for multiple cycles.

Like, I guess yall do meteorological physics better than nwp and have better access to initialization conditions than the data that feeds them.

To me, there's no difference between the statements "it's definitely coming" and "it's never going to happen." Both are severely lacking of humility.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

By the time the dry slot really begins filling in that warmth aloft may already be racing in. Mesoanalysis doesn't look too encouraging for a rapid fill in of the dry slot though ulvl divergence seems to be increasing a bit. That is also a tremendous amount of convection in the Tennessee Valley, that has to be having some negative impact for us now. By the time we really get into favorable dynamics for us, it will be crush city for NNE. 

That's a lot of flash flood warnings

7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Seems exceedingly low on 18z given difference from 12 (more positive tilt/suppression on early returns)

It's also more consolidated at h5. So some good some bad

Just now, MJO812 said:

Different pattern setting up

ignore the primary currently plowing into buffalo 

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

if it didn't show a huge storm for NYC-Templeton, MA, it sucks

You seem confused...yes, this is what I was referring to

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

not when it shows a blizzard.

I mean the 12z solution

10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Everyone take a deep breath, and just wait for the JMA

JMA sucks

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was thinking 32ish here but clouds came in quick. 

So not 37?

Everyone take a deep breath, and just wait for the JMA

Ggem should definitely be further east than 0z, but 0z was extreme

Definitely still not as clean a phase as some other models

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

So as of now the GFS is on its own? Man what a victory lap it could take if it somehow comes out on top....

It won't be "right" it's more a matter of what the compromise ends up being, if any

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Better phasing on my least favorite model

Ray will love it

Better phasing on my least favorite model

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yup.. Equal chances for a missed / late phase, hit, or congrats DC. 

Congrats DC has decent support

1 minute ago, apm said:

And the GEFS is hideous.

The GEFS don't even have a Euro like solution within its envelope. It's a flag, but also an indictment of the ensemble system

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Eventually, but holds on longer compared to prior runs

Regardless, when the second line comes through, I'll be more likely to see thunder than fzrn

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Shit even Groton was cold on HRRR

Spikes to mid 50s, no?

3 minutes ago, apm said:

There are a bunch of phasers here, no?

Yeah some members probably go due east from NJ and never gain latitude, a la 2016. Some might be late captures

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If it doesn’t happen in my backyard then it doesn’t happen lol. If you measure 14” it doesn’t matter that 15miles north measured 20”. You did not hit 18”.

Most people eor didn't hit 18 in these storms you are so jealous of

Don't worry guys it doesn't matter, gfs will be right

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don’t  know if I’m willing to say who is or is not in a gold a lot this early.  But I’d say right now we have an interesting look.

Bold take

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea we’ve had a good amount of 12-16” events no deny thing. Still looking for that elusive 18+ one though…been 12 years. 

Wor has had a few though, just because your backyard didn't doesn't mean it didn't happen