J.Spin

Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.14” L.E. We’ve had some flurries out there, but I think that’s the tail end of this system. The next chance for snow appears to be tonight with a weak warm front. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 18.5 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

These comments prompted me to head to the data, since we’re far enough into the winter season now to take a look. We’re removed enough from the SVT climate that the data can’t quite speak to the averages there, but for up here in the Northern Greens, snowfall says that we’re right on track. You can see from the plot that we were a bit behind normal pace in early November, but Mother Nature has caught right up to her averages. Mean snowfall through today at our site is 23.5”, so this season has been hanging with that average pace. We’ll probably fall off average pace in the coming days because of the tracks that some of the larger systems are forecast to take. It won’t mean no snow in the coming stretch, but averages now get up into the 1-2”/day range, and the upcoming storms in the forecast just don’t look like they’ll be able to maintain that pace in the short term. Indeed as noted, nothing epic, but when average means plenty of light events, snowfall on many days, consistent snow cover, constant snow replenishment, etc. etc., then “average” is quite good.

Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.13” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 33.3 Snow Density: 3.0% H2O Temperature: 24.3 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.07” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.2 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 17.1 Snow Density: 5.8% H2O Temperature: 24.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E. Light snow was falling this morning at observations time, with a tenth of an inch down on the boards. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 22.3 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.50” L.E. The back side of this system delivered a tenth of an inch here at our site, and I’d say the system is done because I haven’t seen any precipitation since then. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 29.7 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

Yeah, I saw that on the GFS – looks like it shows snow for a good chunk of Wednesday and Thursday on the latest run. That can be one of the problems with these coastal things – sometimes they just end up screwing with perfectly good northern stream systems by messing up the energy, so you’d often just as soon have them get out of the way and let the bread and butter do its thing in a more reliable manner. Obviously those larger coastal storms can be great, but the reliability is just so low compared to the typical Clippers we see.

Yeah, perfect phrase for those types of post-frontal accumulations. Mother Nature seems pretty angry based on the wind – our power flickered a few times and even went out for a few minutes. On these types of nights, maybe have a beverage from these folks…

I just noticed that snow is mixing in with the rain here at our place, so colder air must be moving in now on the back side of this storm.

November Totals Days with new snow: 16 (+5) Accumulating Storms: 8 (+2) Snowfall: 15.0” (+1.2”) Liquid Equivalent: 5.59” (+1.65”) SDD: 25.5 (-6.7) I’ve put together the snow numbers for November at our site. It was a decent November for both snowfall and liquid as the positive departures show, but snowfall was right around average and not up there with the upper echelon of Novembers – this November ranked 9th out of 16 seasons. It actually felt like a typical November overall, and that’s good because the numbers suggest that. Snow-depth days were a bit low, but not outrageously so. With roughly an average snowfall performance, this November continues the solid run of average to above average Novembers we’ve had for the past six seasons as the plot shows below. As I noted earlier in the month, this November did not have the feel of those very low snow Novembers with benign (albeit comfortable) weather, and it indeed the data indicate that it wasn’t one of those.

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.06” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 26.7 Snow Density: 3.8% H2O Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Mostly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.03” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7 Snow Density: 6.0% H2O Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Snow just started up here at the house with the approach of this next system.

I don’t really know the climate down there, but NOHRSC analysis certainly doesn’t suggest that the local snowpack here is going to disappear because of one mixed system, and I find the NOHRSC projections do a pretty nice job for our site using the CoCoRaHS data. The current snowpack isn’t just a bunch of fluff; even here in the valley it’s been around almost two weeks and it’s seen bolstering and consolidation from six storms. The projected system doesn’t have a ton or rain, and there’s frozen on both ends depending on location. I guess we’ll just have to see how it plays out, but If this was really a big deal, I think people would be talking about issues for the local resorts around here.

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.24” L.E. We’ve mostly cleared out, and the radar looks quiet, so I’d say we’re done with this most recent system and the above totals should represent the final values. That was the 10th accumulating storm of the season, with two storms thus far in December and eight from November. That’s a respectable number of storms for November, and it was a decent winter month with fairly average numbers in most snow categories I track. I’m planning to put together the summary for the month with comparison to other Novembers when I get a chance. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 24.3 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Thanks for the update PF – that should be fun to watch. These bread and butter-style events are of course typically way up there in terms of reliability when modeled, relative to many other types of systems, but even then they still have their ups and downs in terms of magnitude. That event went through an interesting period in the modeling where it seemed to weaken a lot, but it has made a resurgence in recent runs. That is definitely one to watch because if it delivers enough L.E., that could set up some low and moderate angle powder turns down to lower elevations than the good snow might be at the moment. This past system has been good for substantiating the base, but it seems like levels for maintaining snow quality were pretty far up there (~3,000’?). This could help freshen up surfaces a bit lower if it delivers enough – it will definitely have a big impact on whether or not I try to head out for natural snow turns this weekend.

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.23” L.E. Yesterday’s above-freezing temperatures consolidated the snowpack by a couple of inches, and it did pick up some liquid from the rainy period to create a much more sturdy, base-like consistency compared to what it was like ahead of this system. The snow on the boards this morning was a mixture of granules and graupel, but we’re over to more typical flakes now with a substantial uptick in snowfall intensity when in bands as the radar suggests. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 29.5 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.03” L.E. I’m glad I cleared all the boards well last night because we did get some front end snow from this next incoming system. Temperatures were approaching freezing, so the snowpack was starting to get a bit wet as I was leaving this morning. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7 Snow Density: 6.0% H2O Temperature: 31.8 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.14” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.1 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.0 Snow Density: 9.1% H2O Temperature: 23.7 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.04” L.E. From what I’ve seen in our area, this morning’s snowfall has been some of the most robust from this system thus far. The flakes were relatively small at observations time, but the size has increased substantially since then. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0 Snow Density: 4.0% H2O Temperature: 28.4 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.01” L.E. Today’s earlier event finished up this afternoon, so the above totals should be the final values. Radar suggests the next system is right on the doorstep though, so we’ll see what that one has in store. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 27.3 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.01” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 18.0 F Sky: Light Snow (2-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

At observations time this morning I was surprised to find steady light snow falling with some substantial flakes (up to 15 mm diameter), because as far as I knew, our next system in the queue wasn’t supposed to affect the area until later today. I quickly checked the weather models, and even the mesoscale options don’t seem to have picked this up. The BTV NWS thankfully has their thoughts on it in the near term of their most recent AFD, which I’ve added below. As you can see from the radar image, it’s surprisingly robust precipitation for something stealth enough to be missed by even the mesoscale modeling. I’ll call it more than the scattered flurries they have in the AFD text, but perhaps the precipitation has blossomed more in the past couple of hours. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 637 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 626 AM EST Tuesday...Main change with this update was to expand in both areal and temporal scope scattered flurries for the next few hours. Light returns are showing up on radar across far northeastern NY into northern VT, and area webcams indicate that snow is indeed falling in these locations. However, it does not appear that much, if any, accumulation is occurring with this activity. It`s likely the result of a very weak upper shortwave passing through the northwest flow aloft and should exit to our east a bit later this morning. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape and no other changes are needed.

Snow present on the ground, or snow actually falling?

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E. We’ve had radar echoes pushing into the area since earlier this afternoon, with flakes here and there, but only in the past couple of hours have we begun to pick up some measurable accumulation. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 24.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches