J.Spin

We picked up another tenth of an inch of snow this morning after observations time, and it’s been generally quiet for a while, but there’s just now been a resurgence of flakes with some new echoes on the radar. The regional radar certainly shows moisture streaming off Lake Ontario in this direction, so the additional flakes may be from that event progressing. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 916 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 914 AM EST Thursday...Better late than never! The lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario took a bit longer than was initially thought but is now going in full force. Webcams from Potsdam down to Star Lake and Edwards show light snow falling with radar returns filling in across northern New York. There is likely some virga out there this morning, especially as you head into Vermont, with a dry pocket in the low levels but the forecast across southern St. Lawrence looks to be in good shape at this time. We will continue to watch for streamers off Lake Ontario and make adjustments to snowfall totals as needed.

It’s always hard to know what translates over to the mountains of NNH, but what they’ve got in the BTV NWS forecast discussion sounds quite reasonable as usual: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 916 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... …snow will linger along the Green Mountains late Friday, resulting in total snow accumulations up to 4 inches for locations above 1500 ft. I’m currently seeing something in the range 2-4” in the point forecast here at our site, and 3-6” for the high elevations along the spine. The numbers are in range of 0.3”-0.4” of liquid along the spine of the Northern Greens through Saturday on many of the models. That could certainly produce 3-6” if ratios were high as PF mentioned.

Man, what’s all the griping been about in the forum threads then? I swear I keep hearing people from SNE saying they haven’t had a good season in something like 3 or 4 seasons, but perhaps that’s just a vocal minority. I don’t really hear as much about Mid-Atlantic snowfall, so I can’t say for that area, but I just heard on TWC that the snow D.C. just had was the biggest in a couple of years, so it seemed like things had been pretty lean. You know, now that I think of it, I do recall hearing about places in New Jersey or thereabouts that had a really good stretch at some point last year, but one would think it didn’t extend much into SNE the way they’ve seemed to be griping? Or maybe it was just weenie unrealistic expectations and such. The thing is, you probably still had more than double the season snowfall of anyone south of you last season, so there’s that perspective to think about as well.

Is that what last February was like? I checked my data (February 2021 storms listed below) and I’m seeing two systems that might qualify as “missing to the south” – it looks like Quade and Viola might fit (outside of bench mark) based on the descriptors for each of the February storms that hit here. But then you’ve got far more storms like Orlena, Peggy, Roland, Uri, etc. that moved through, or even north of New England. I guess there could be some storms that didn’t get into my data because they only get in if accumulation is recorded here at our site, but that would be surprising based on what I recall from the tenor of last season. Didn’t the folks in SNE consider last season a dud? We had 47.2” of snow last February here at our site. That’s decent, but I have a hard time imagining anyone in SNE or the Mid-Atlantic had that much snow last February – for most sites down there that would literally make their season by being above their entire season average or getting them there in combination with whatever other snow they picked up. I don’t really have a sense that it was that great down there, unless all the storms missed everyone entirely and were out to sea? The feeling that storms missed to the south last February could be perspective from online media interaction as well. Even though our winter climate up here is vastly different from that of SNE, we wind up being linked with that area because the American Weather sub-forum covers all of New England. SNE has the big cities and population areas, so the forum is sort of centered around storms that affect that area. Meanwhile, a system focused on Montreal to the north of us gets jack squat with respect to attention - the bulk of the forum has probably checked out of extensive online discussion because they’re getting rain. It’s possible that the forum setup exaggerates the apparent frequency of storms that are focused farther to the south? Sure, last February wasn’t a 70” or 80” month up here in terms of snowfall (perhaps at the resorts), but 12 storms (average is 10 to 11 storms) and almost 50” of snow (average is ~40”) still seems like we weren’t shortchanged heavily by that pattern. If someone to the south had a 70”, 80”, or 100” month last February (I believe Coastal had a month like that one season a while back?) I think we would have heard about it. Here’s the storm listing from last February at our site: 1) 10.2” – 2/2/21 - Winter Storm Orlena - slow moving system along Northeast coast 2) 7.4” – 2/5/21 - Winter Storm Peggy - deep, mature cyclone moving north through the Great Lakes 3) 0.1 – 2/6/21 - LES behind occluded boundary due to persistent southwesterly flow aloft 4) 3.3” – 2/7/21 - Winter Storm Quade - coastal storm south of benchmark coupled to northern stream trough 5) 8.2” – 2/9/21 - Winter Storm Roland - weak wave of low pressure passing south of the region 6) 0.1” – 2/11/21 - Weak upper-level disturbance 7) 4.5” – 2/15/21 - Winter Storm Uri - low pressure moving through New England with mixed precipitation 8) 7.7” – 2/19/21 - Winter Storm Viola - low SE of benchmark with multiple shortwaves in deep SW flow 9) 3.0” – 2/22/21 - Low pressure system from Great Lakes passing through New England 10) 0.5” – 2/23/21 - Well-defined shortwave troughs to north and south moving eastward through area 11) 1.8” – 2/24/21 - Low pressure system passing just north of area 12) 0.4” – 2/2721 - Warm front associated with weak frontal system

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E. I found 0.2” of fluff on the boards this morning with some flakes falling. I thought it might be from the lake-effect snow that some of the models have shown coming off Lake Ontario, but checking the direction of the flow on the radar and reading the BTV NWS forecast discussion suggests it’s from a cold front pushing though Vermont this morning. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 30.1 F Sky: Light Snow (4-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

For us not being entrenched in January arctic air, I’d say the number of events has been surprisingly slow for this first week of January – usually those arctic outbreaks when the air is incredibly dry and the storm track is pushed south are our slowest midwinter times. It’s looking like we’ll get into a bit more of a bread and butter pattern going forward over the next week though, with potential systems tomorrow, Friday, Sunday/Monday, Tuesday, and then next Wednesday depending on the model. And it rolls along with a few more beyond that if you just step though the most recent deterministic run of the GFS. Beyond a week it’s just a pattern check of course vs. nailing individual systems, but the theme is there. We’re about 20” behind average snowfall pace at our site now, so there’s some ground to make up. I’d suspect the usual assortment of bread and butter systems would allow us to keep pace, but probably not gain any ground – we’d need a bigger synoptic system or upslope event for that.

Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.21” L.E. We’ve mostly cleared out now, so I’d say the totals above are the final values here at our site for this northern component of Winter Storm Frida. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 5.2 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.21” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 19.6 F Sky: Light Snow (3-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.20” L.E. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 17.5 Snow Density: 5.7% H2O Temperature: 27.1 F Sky: Light Snow (2-20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

This holiday week wasn’t an outrageously snowy period for skiing around here in the Northern Greens, but it was actually quite nice in terms of temperatures and conditions. We had a number of days with temperatures in the upper 20s F to around freezing, and an inch or two of new snow here and there to add at least a bit of freshening. Overall it was far superior to holiday weeks where there’s been a huge melt out or wall-to-wall subzero temperatures that make skiing impractical. There’s clearly enough natural snow for Bolton to have their Wilderness Uphill Route and associated terrain open for ski touring, so that was definitely a plus, and it looks like the area saw plenty of use from skiers. Lift-served terrain at the mountain is still somewhat limited as they continue with snowmaking, but they’ve got Hard Luck open for some steep skiing on top of the usual early season routes. My wife and I were out for a snowshoe tour Monday on the backcountry network, I went ski touring in the Wilderness area on Wednesday, and then we skied lift service on Thursday, so I’ve added a few shots from the holiday week below.

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.16” L.E. This morning we picked up an initial accumulation from approaching Winter Storm Frida, but the bulk of the precipitation is still off to our northwest. There was also 0.02” of liquid in the rain gauge ahead of what have been a transition through mix and very dense snow based on the liquid equivalent found in this morning’s core sample. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.14 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.9 Snow Density: 35.0% H2O Temperature: 27.1 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

Checking on the averages in my numbers, we should be right at 50” of season snowfall as of today (January 1st). December had a couple of slow snowfall weeks (roughly week 2 and week 4), so we’re only at 35.6” on the season and have some catching up to do. These next couple of systems could certainly help in that department depending on how they play out. There’s also a potential midweek system more in the Wed/Thurs timeframe that could help It’s been interesting seeing that argument among the weenies about whether “losing” December (I assume in terms of snowfall) matters in the scope of the season. I guess it’s no big deal if you average just a few inches of snow in December; one storm can make up that deficit. It also doesn’t seem like November snowfall is much of a factor in SNE, but going nearly snowless up here in November and December, that would be a huge hill to climb to get to an average snowfall season in the end. Missing out on nearly a third of the average snowfall for a season would be more notable up here, where you can’t just make it up in one storm. It would take several large storms to do it, along with the extra snow required to keep pace with the additional average daily snowfall. The 2006-2007 season that had 21.9” of snow up to this point just about pulled it off with a strong back half, but that 2015-2016 season with only 14.3” up to this point most certainly did not.

I’ve got the latest BTV NWS map updates for the upcoming system, which has been named Winter Storm Frida based on its impact level. The alerts now contains some Winter Storm Warnings up to the northwest of the BTV NWS CWA, since the heaviest snowfall rates are expected off toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. The Winter Weather Advisories have also been expanded since the previous update. The Event Total Snowfall forecast map clearly shows how accumulations are expected to increase to the north and west. Around here in the Northern Greens, I’m seeing elevation forecasts in the 6-8” range, and there’s just a touch of that yellow 6-8” shading appearing up near Jay Peak. Down at our site in the valley, the point forecast suggests something in the 3-6” range for snow/sleet accumulations through Sunday night.

I checked out the 18Z NAM modeling and it actually seems pretty nice – it looks like it moved the snow a bit farther south vs. its previous run and sends a stream of it right through NNE for ~24 hours.

Down here at 500’ we’ve got a mix of rain and frozen with these strong echoes coming through, but no accumulation to report.

Alexa just chirped up with an alert that we’ve been put under a Winter Weather Advisory starting at 7:00 P.M. tomorrow. It looks like the advisory is for most of the BTV NWS coverage area. I haven’t looked into any projected accumulations maps yet, but the advisory text itself suggests up to 4 inches of snow at this point.

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.02” L.E. I saw a bit of snow yesterday evening, and found a slushy tenth of an inch on the boards this morning from this most recent event. There’s not really any snow in the forecast for today, so if that’s the last of the month, this December will finish off with 20.6” of total snow. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 5.0 Snow Density: 20.0% H2O Temperature: 32.9 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

I guess we’ll have to see where the modeling is going because we’re still ~36 hours or so out from the front end of the modeled system, but there seems to be a lot of potential in these recent runs. The storm appears rather strung out, but areas on the snow side of the swath of precipitation that comes though could get a protracted period of snowfall. The 18Z ICON is an example of how it would be snowing for almost a day and a half in northern areas around here.

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.04” L.E. The BTV NWS says the snow from last night into this morning was from an upper-level shortwave tracking across the region, and it sounds like any additional snow through this morning can be attributed to that system. As we get into the evening hours today, there’s the potential for a resurgence in snowfall, which looks like it would be attributed to a different shortwave. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.5 Snow Density: 13.3% H2O Temperature: 32.5 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

For areas that were in that localized mid-December banding event last year I guess this season could seem different, but for many areas around here in NNE it probably seems fairly similar. The data here for our site say the two Decembers have been very similar in terms of snowfall and storms. December snowfall and storm data to this point of the month: December 2020: 22.7” from 10 storms December 2021: 20.2” from 13 storms So this December has seen a couple more storms, while last December saw a couple more inches of snow, but they have a very similar tenor. Depending on how snowpack factors in for people, this December takes that hands down, with twice the level of SDD to this point of the month: December 2020: 51.5 SDD December 2021: 100.0 SDD Both in terms of snowfall and snowpack, all those numbers are well below average (although the storm numbers are actually about average), so these can’t be considered amazing Decembers in that regard, but around here they are feeling quite similar, with this one getting the obvious nod in terms of snowpack.

It doesn’t seem to be a huge system in terms of potential L.E., but a colder profile would be much more positive in terms of adding to the base or even enhancing conditions on the slopes. That most recent GFS run already seems to suggest a majority of frozen precipitation for NW VT. Somehow I don’t get the impression that the main thread is going to do their typical microdissection on every five mile shift in surface low track for this system like they sometimes do; but you never know.

I saw this and checked my data, and your perception is pretty much right about larger storms being a bit on the lean side last season. It’s probably a bit early to say much about this season yet (the average date of our first 12”+ storm here is Jan 20th), but last season was definitely on the lower side. We typically average about three storms a season at 12”+, and last season we saw only one. We typically average about four storms a season at 10”+, and last season we had two. We also average about two storms a season at 15”+, one storm a season at 18”+, and one storm a season at 20”+, and we had none of those last season. Below the 10” storm threshold we were at or above average for numbers last season (makes sense, with overall snowfall coming in about average), but we were certainly on the low side for larger storms. We’re obviously famous for the persistency/frequency of our snowfalls up here in the mountains of NNE, but of course we get the larger storms like everyone else. From a skiing perspective, the continuous stream of small to moderate events is safer because you’re not dealing with huge storms that might put you in the associated warm sector if they pass to the west, and more frequent events keep the surfaces fresher. Setups that lead to larger events are sort of a double-edged sword, because they can bring surface-deteriorating warmth and also screw up the flow of systems in the northern stream, so unless the storm track for those is perfect, it makes you wonder if we really want the pattern to go there.

I absolutely agree based on my snowshoe tour up at Bolton yesterday – a solid warning event (~1” of L.E.) wouldn’t really get the steep natural snow terrain going, but a lot of low and moderate angle stuff would be in play. And based on your previous post showing an average depth at the stake of 31”, that’s just about what you’d expect. It’s really that ~40” mark at the stake that gets the steeper stuff going safely (unless we’ve had a ton of dense snow), and that’s not achieved on average until a couple of weeks from now.

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.03” L.E. The moisture looks like it’s moved south of the area now on radar, so this round of snow could be it for this system. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 31.5 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

We picked up another tenth of an inch of snow this morning with the resurgence of snow from this system, but the bulk of the snowfall is currently just a bit north of our area based on the radar: