Are you arguing they are dependent events? Someone can flip a coin and get heads six times consecutively...on the seventh flip the odds of heads are still 50/50.
I's like we're going up against Greg Maddox in his prime. Everytime we think we have him figured out and are ready to rake, he gives us a subtle change of speed and location....and we whiff like fools.
Let me grasp at a thin reed here....this season, the 50/50 lows have had less sticking power than initially modelled. Maybe, just maybe, it will leave the playing field half-a-day faster.
I think the ridge over Hispanola is the biggest problem. It turns the atmosphere over the east coast into a threshing machine. Although it does seem to be banished after the proverbial 10 days....
Isn't the ridge centered over Cuba another turd in the punchbowl? It seems to keep the height fields over the eastern US highly compressed. Edit: I am focusing at the hour 210 failure.