TheDreamTraveler

I was just updating myself on that area just now and NHC lowered it back down to 30% in the next 7 days lol. That's just how inhospitable the Atlantic's been this year. It's really crazy how hard it is for anything to form. I'd love at least one decent hurricane to track but maybe I'll get lucky with something in October hopefully if this one doesn't pan out. I think we're entering 5 days in a row now since September 11th when we beat the record for the latest forming hurricane in the satellite era and every day just keeps adding onto that record.

Every day is just another record broken for no hurricane formation which is just nutty honestly. Like normally when you beat records like this it's only maybe a few days but we're entering 5 days now since we broke the record back on September 11th. We do have that area of interest at 40% but I'm still not fully convinced it ends up developing into much of anything let alone a hurricane. But if it can take advantage of the good conditions that will be available in that small area of the Atlantic it could have a chance to spin up into something reasonable. Actually I was just checking that area of interest while writing this post just now and NHC went back down to 30% now lol

Finally some action...

First 40's of the summer for me tonight. Very excited for fall.

That's the interesting thing with the climate warming it might actually mean *less* Atlantic hurricanes forming overall in the future but the ones that do form tend to be a bit stronger than typical. There's still a lot of debate and research into the true overall effects but I do find that interesting to say the least. And yeah I could see some monster storm finding the perfect pocket to form and rapidly intensify in later in the season. But this El Nino is an anomaly all on its own too which is making it even harder to understand what other effects it's having on the atlantic hurricane season overall. We still have months more of warming in the Pacific despite us already surpassing the peak we had in 1997. Just given everything we're seeing I really would not be surprised if this is just how the rest of the season ends up looking with maybe one or two more stragglers forming at the end of September into October. I wouldn't even be surprised if we don't see a single hurricane now and I'm usually very optimistic most seasons.

Yeah the storms are disappearing as they get to central PA as is usual for the entire year. I just expect that now with any storm system I see lol

Spotted lanternflies are also playing a role in that too. My parents have a few trees in their front yards that these things love to swarm and feed on and its insane how much dew they deposit that ends up turning into mold and other tree infections if you don't take care of it right away. It really weakens the health of these trees to the point they'll die in a couple years eventually if there's no action taken.

This atlantic hurricane season has been so depressing this year lmao. It's the main weather season I look forward to every year above all else. I know some of you don't care but we're reaching a lot of record territories for the 2026 season. There's just been nothing to track and whatever has formed has barely lasted for more than a day. Today is the climatological peak of the season and this is what the basin has looked like for 2026 with no new storms in sight. Oh and the record for the latest forming hurricane during the satellite era was on September 11th in 2002 and 2013. We're poised to break that record easily tomorrow.

Somehow it's September 10th the climatological peak of the season. And this map will probably still look like this in a week from now. The record for the latest forming hurricane during the satellite era was on September 11th in 2002 and 2013. We're poised to break that record easily tomorrow.

It's been having eruptions off and on for years now. I wouldn't worry too much about it for now. It's nowhere near the same volcano as the original Krakatau was so it wouldn't be able to erupt how it did in the 1880's

I was expecting a lot more wind than I got given how that line looked. Not really windy at all

The thunder is kinda insane right now

I would too. My gut says one will find a small area with just the right conditions and RI at least one time like Joaquin in 2015 but this current super el nino is unprecedented and it's honestly a bit naive to just assume this will behave like previous super el ninos. The distance this super el nino could be at its peak from previous record super el ninos will likely be a bigger temperature difference than all the older record supers are to average el ninos. We really have no playbook to fully understand all the intricate effects this super el nino is having on worldwide weather patterns overall at a deeper level. Nino's at this strength could make everything behave differently enough than the ones we're used to. That's why I'm slightly annoyed seeing so many people trying to forecast the upcoming winter fully confident this will play out just like other super el ninos we've had. There is nothing we can look back at for the one we're experiencing right now if it reaches its predicted peak lmao. It will be fascinating to see how differently or not it effects this hurricane season overall though. It's possible these hyper el ninos don't play any differently than previous supers but we'll see in a few years if they do or not.

I made sure I checked a few days in advance if the GFS was calling for rain today. It wasn't. But it's looking like it could rain today with a 30% chance. Like I said before the model is absolutely garbo now

Here's some other notable super el nino seasons just for comparison. Shockingly 1997 and 2015 have had more activity and ACE up until this point than 2026 has so far. Though notably both did have a major hurricane with Erika in 1997 and Joaquin in 2015 in September.