TheDreamTraveler

I'd mark this down as another win for some of the AI models as well. They not only guessed the track better when models like the GFS, ICON and UKMET failed spectacularly but they also guessed the insane low pressure below 900mb which many didn't believe it would get to. So glad we finally have something else to use because the GFS has just been a mess the past 5 years. But really this was one of the hardest forecasts we've had in a while but the AI models really nailed it despite the fact.

I'm absolutely impressed with the buildings in Jamaica. Other than the roofs being blown off and destroyed most of the buildings are completely intact which is really good to see. I have a feeling if their homes weren't made with solid concrete that they would not have survived this well.

I know you're joking but I can guarantee that you'll see AI video of that on social media and people will just automatically believe it lmao

I looked on twitter a bit apparently Jim Cantore is saying that's from hurricane Dorian so it's not even Melissa lol https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1983269063339192440

From what I've seen on Twitter this is apparently AI.

Was thinking the same thing. We may have to anticipate and watch this happen all over again in a few days. Even if just a cat 4 it's going to be a disaster for Cuba so I hope the people covering Jamaica didn't burn themselves out when we focus on Cuba

Wilma is the most intense at 882mb. Unless we're just talking about wind speed then it's pretty much tied with her at 185mph

185mph is absolutely insane. To think that this is landfalling at this strength at 892mb. What other storms landfalled at this strength? The labor day hurricane in 1935 comes to mind but I can't really think of anything else

Gotta hand it to the couple of models that were predicting this to get pressure to the 880's a week or two ago. I know some people didn't believe it'd get that low but here we are.

Third cat 5 of the season. Absolutely insane.

She's gonna be a beaut. I really can't believe we're watching the worst case scenario for Jamaica play out before our eyes. Especially a country that has avoided very many destructive hurricanes in the past but that luck as finally run out sadly. Like even if Melissa was moving normally this would still be one for the history books but given the slow speed, angle of approach and absolute monster strength it's going to be something that they may never see again for hundreds of years. I really do not think many know what's truly coming.

I'm glad the GFS is starting to get some sense with Melissa finally but holy shit what is the UKMET still doing lmao it's been doing this for days now when it's usually one of the best performing models. Just wild we've had the UKMET and GFS performing so poorly for so long with this storm.

I know everyone's forgotten this storm but it's reminding me of hurricane Tomas for some odd reason. Not sure why but I do know it was predicted to become a powerful major hurricane once it entered the Caribbean and people were very bullish on it. It struggled immensely and was still a tropical storm where it was predicted to become a major lol. Definitely one of the worst intensity forecasts I've ever seen from the NHC. Not saying Melissa is going to under perform but we are in the Caribbean 'graveyard' after all. Normally storms that enter the eastern Caribbean struggle to develop at all unless they are well established before entering. Also NHC's intensity forecasts are a lot better now than compared to 15 years ago but it is still the hardest part to forecast in a hurricane.

Another thing to keep in mind too is late October is the only real window for these hybrid storms to form with the perfect conditions. The only two storms we have recorded Sandy and The Perfect Storm in 1991 both happened at the very end of October. So it's interesting given the time period we're in and that the overall setup is very similar. Maybe once the GFS stops being absolutely useless and figures things out we'll have a clearer picture of what will happen. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Actually amazing how useless the GFS has been for this storm lol