TheDreamTraveler

The thunder is kinda insane right now

I would too. My gut says one will find a small area with just the right conditions and RI at least one time like Joaquin in 2015 but this current super el nino is unprecedented and it's honestly a bit naive to just assume this will behave like previous super el ninos. The distance this super el nino could be at its peak from previous record super el ninos will likely be a bigger temperature difference than all the older record supers are to average el ninos. We really have no playbook to fully understand all the intricate effects this super el nino is having on worldwide weather patterns overall at a deeper level. Nino's at this strength could make everything behave differently enough than the ones we're used to. That's why I'm slightly annoyed seeing so many people trying to forecast the upcoming winter fully confident this will play out just like other super el ninos we've had. There is nothing we can look back at for the one we're experiencing right now if it reaches its predicted peak lmao. It will be fascinating to see how differently or not it effects this hurricane season overall though. It's possible these hyper el ninos don't play any differently than previous supers but we'll see in a few years if they do or not.

I made sure I checked a few days in advance if the GFS was calling for rain today. It wasn't. But it's looking like it could rain today with a 30% chance. Like I said before the model is absolutely garbo now

Here's some other notable super el nino seasons just for comparison. Shockingly 1997 and 2015 have had more activity and ACE up until this point than 2026 has so far. Though notably both did have a major hurricane with Erika in 1997 and Joaquin in 2015 in September.

What's even more interesting about how hostile this season has been is that what does develop barely lasts for more than a day. Arthur, Christobal and Dolly all lasted a single day. What does make it through the grinder can barely even last if it does form.

Definitely. Though even 1997 and 2015 had much more activity by this point. 97 went on to be one of the quietest years on record but still it's impressive just how little activity there's been at all to this point

Kind of crazy it's almost September and this is how the season has looked so far lol

The GFS is actual trash. The fact it only just now finally dropped this system after developing it as quick as it was just shows how bad it still is. It had this as a 996mb system today a few days ago lmao

Bit of rain this AM.

I'm pretty sure when I checked yesterday there wasn't a chance for showers or thunderstorms today yet there's a storm coming right for me lmao these forecasts are actual trash now

Thankfully in terms of ranking we don't rank with tornado alley in intensity. Anything over EF3 is usually pretty rare in most of the state and slightly less rare in the western half. Still very impressive. We might be able to beat 2021 but 1998 might be hard to beat unless the fall season is very active

Climatology always finds a way to break free even from the most hostile conditions. I'm sure we'll see at least one long tracking hurricane in the next 1 1/2 months. We had Joaquin in 2015 and that one was originally forecast to pull another hurricane Sandy into the east coast but that eventually didn't pan out. Joaquin was able to find the perfect spot to turn into a high end category 4 and hang around for a while.

Glad the drought is getting chipped away little by little.

Looks like July 1936 was finally dethroned as the hottest month ever recorded in the US. July 2026 holds the record now. I'm impressed it took that long to break 1936. Almost 100 years

Second severe thunderstorm warning of the day so far