cstrunk

59 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Yesterday was a weird day with a couple of rounds of severe weather for South Texas. The first round was much earlier in the afternoon or morning. The enhanced risk seems to have been pretty good.

The enhanced risk was pretty good, but the slight risk extending up towards Texarkana was a bust. Models never really showed much north of I-10 in TX and LA, due to the substantial convection across S/SE TX and S LA... and that's what happened. Marginal risk for the northern uncertainty would have sufficed (and still not verify).

I-10 special today from San Antonio through Houston later mostly for wind/very large hail.

Ended up with 1.49" yesterday.

1.26" so far today in Longview and it's not quite done yet. Nice soaking rain.

I think tomorrow's severe threat is going to get pushed farther south/east again. Models not looking impressive (IMO) due to lingering precip tonight/tomorrow morning across areas of eastern Texas.

1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

1 hour ago, Sydney Claridge said:

There's definitely a significant temperature/moisture boundary (warm front?) over DFW right now. Upper 70s and 80s with 70s dewpoints to the south of DFW at the moment, with 60s and low 70s with dewpoints in the 40s north of DFW.

While hail and wind will be the biggest threat, I also want to be mindful of any possibilities for tornadoes when such a boundary is in place, as there is often localized enhancement of tornado parameters near/along these sort of boundaries.

51 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The last few runs of the HRRR, which has the most bullish of all the Hi-Res models for DFW, seem pretty consistent with keeping the severe activity south of I-20 and west of I-35.

I agree. Looks like SPC disagreed with the Enhanced delineation in the area I mentioned... and even nudged it slightly more north. I wonder what they are seeing.

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0210.html

Tornado watch up in Texas.

Lots of supercells out there this afternoon across a wide area! Several tornado warnings as well.

Friendly reminder - don't feed the trolls... just ignore them.

I updated the thread title to include today, due to the updated Enhanced Risk added for NW Texas.

Maybe I need to convince my boss to let me take my birthday off from work...

SPC Day One Outlook (4-30-24):

SPC Day Two Outlook (4-31-24):

Severe storms in chaseable terrain return today and tomorrow (possibly Thursday too?). Today's threat covers areas hit hard by Friday's storms in E NE and W IA.

7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Legit question: For several weeks, actually over two months now, my social media feeds have been filled with images of model runs and warnings of severe weather. Soundings and HRRR runs and NAM runs for the upcoming week, etc. etc. Yet week after week passes without any images of tornadoes or tennis ball sized hail or anything half as significant as what I see warned about on social media the week prior. This goes for the Ohio valley, the Great Plains, pretty much anywhere. So my question is...are the models overestimating storms this year? Or am I just on social media filled with salivating amateur storm chasers desperate to get a glimpse of a funnel cloud?

It seems to me like the SPC is highlighting risk areas in Days 4-8 more than in the past. That used to be more of a big deal, as it seems like they would only do that for days with a much higher certainty of some kind of severe weather outbreak, and those would end up being more like true "Moderate" risk type days (which are much more infrequent). Now they are highlighting those areas and they don't end up being huge outbreaks, just standard "Slight" or "Enhanced" risk type days. But not significant, like you mention. I think social media is making it worse. There's so many variables and failure modes, that confidence can't be that high at those ranges to start highlighting "Super Outbreaks" headlines that we've seen from some.

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Parents outside Longview have had 7.6” rain as of 5 pm local time 

5.93" total IMBY on the north side of Longview. 

Man, the last few runs of the HRRR look pretty nasty for a pretty big area of NE TX, E OK, and NW AR. Lots of individual cells/supercells this afternoon/evening. 

Tomorrow evening certainly looks interesting in the extreme NE Kansas area.

Southern Tyler had up to 2 inch hail about 30 mins ago. It's headed towards Longview now but should focus on the central/southern part of town and the worst should miss me.

Less than a half inch of freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow in Longview. Ground mostly white but not completely. Roads are iced over and will get worse as traffic drives on it. Not forecast to get above freezing until Wednesday. Should see some melting tomorrow with a high of 30 degrees and some sun. Roads will be hazardous through Wednesday.

PDS tornado warning north of Clarksville, TN.

On 12/4/2023 at 4:59 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

GFS and Euro have rain, but it doesn't look that good for severe, but we are days away.

This looks like it's not going to get too crazy (at least for the western part of the risk area), but the HRRR is sure intent on rolling an supercell through the De Queen, AR area late this evening.

GFS is very consistent in showing solid to heavy rain for much of central/N/NW TX next week and beyond. Euro keeps any decent rainfall farther west with much lighter amounts. 

2.7" storm event total since yesterday morning.

Getting more interesting now, including a tornado warned storm near Commerce, TX.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2163.html

   Mesoscale Discussion 2163
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

   Areas affected...north-central Texas.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686...

   Valid 192220Z - 192345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A supercell across north-central Texas could pose a large
   hail threat this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell formed on the western periphery of mid-day
   elevated convection which moved east across north-central Texas.
   Given only weak CINH near this storm and its radar depiction over
   the last hour, this storm has likely rooted and is surface based in
   a region with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 40+ knots of mid-level
   northwesterly flow (per FWD VWP) has yielded near 50 knots of
   effective shear. This environment will support supercells capable of
   large hail (potentially 2+ inches). If this storm continues to turn
   right, which it has started to do over the last 15 to 30 minutes,
   portions of at least the northern DFW metro area may be impacted by
   large to very large hail this evening. 

   If this storm continues to maintain its current intensity or
   strengthen, an expansion of watch 686 may be needed.

   ..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/19/2023

It finally rained in Longview. I got 2.42". Hope y'all got something too.

It's been hot but it's July 20th and Longview has only hit 100F once (officially, although my weather station did record 100F yesterday making it the second instance). We might do it again today, but even the forecast through next Wednesday doesn't have 100F temperatures. In fact, this weekend is forecast to be in the low-mid 90's. The humidity has been high, but overall, this summer could be worse.