Heisy

famartin, I believe. I think he made some posts in the MA forum during the winter.

Ray has a great archive website, google “Rays winter storm archive” it will be the first link: Unfortunately he stopped during the 2013 season, but from 93-13 he has every map from every winter storm in the region.

He also has a great YouTube channel with TWC/local news broadcasts from a ton of events. Pretty cool if you’re in a nostalgic mood.

Every fall I go on my own nostalgia trip to get in the mood for winter.

Question: what’s the deal with the model upgrades this fall. What exactly is going on with GFS & EPS. I remember reading last winter that the eps would upgrade to 50 more members and better resolution. The OP would also go out farther during 6/18z runs.


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Well the sun managed to come out for about 5 minutes around 6 pm (longest appearance of the day) before it disappeared again.  But in any event, I pretty much finished up with the 0.08" for the day.  High did make it to 78 and the dp sortof dropped down to the upper 60s vs the lower 70s, and it's currently 74 with dp 67.

Thanks, Yea if I remember the tweet last year from ecmwf they were adding like 50 eps members or something, better resolution, and possibly longer forecasts at 6/18z


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Anyone know when the EPS upgrade is happening? I remember last year reading some news it was getting a large upgrade. Only a few months if hell left!


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13 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The GFS image was the total 16-day period.  Which, absurdly, had three different snowstorms traversing northern MN.

Minneapolis’s #1 storm is 28”+, which puts it on par with the Knickerbocker (#1 DCA) and 2016 (#1 BWI) storms.  

Really contemplating chasing this thing, am I that insane? Maybe 

There’s actually a lot of ensemble members on the gefs, eps, Canadian that have a shot of snow day 8. I’m not ready to give up yet, let’s reel it in 

38 minutes ago, paweather said:

I agree with you now. They are and it will just tamper me down for the playoffs. 

I saw a 76ers logo and had to respond! I only worry about Boston and Brooklyn. Any other team in the east we should be relative favorites. We would probably go 7 games with Miami but I don’t fear them. Boston has the best record in NBA since January 1 and Brooklyn would be hella motivated to beat us. The oddest statistic this year is our home vs away record. We used to be unstoppable at home. Just odd. Team is still getting used to playing with each other. Bench is an issue but hopefully Doc shortens it during the playoffs. 

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro d10 looks nasty good

Yeah there’s some hinting of a west based block forming. Could be possible to sneak something in between 25-1st well see

54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Plausible often is not possible

just sayn'

Yea I would ignore the specifics at this range, but there is a signal on the overall pattern for Davis straits block last week of the month. Unfortunate for those people dying for warmth

That’s actually pretty interesting setup around 25th if we can get that blocking ULL to trend to a better spot there’s a temporary block setup with a pna ride 

18 hours ago, n1vek said:

GFS keeps taunting us with something big. This Tuesday wave is a bit closer than fantasy range, low pressure placement will be key. From what I can tell (and have read), the Euro keeps the low tracking too far south/east for the Denver metro. Something more to watch if we can really get one of these March waves to pop. 

Im keeping an eye on it all the way from Philly. Went to Estes park last year for the march storm and enjoyed it. Would love another Denver chase!

Post winter depression in full effect… Ugh

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

This is a pretty interesting look on the latest EPS. The window around the 10th is probably the earliest shot at something other than rain, but it has looked a bit too warm on the means. Latest trends have a deeper trough around the Aleutians/more ridging along the west coast, a more southward displaced TPV, and quicker progression of the trough into the central/eastern US. Probably still not cold enough verbatim here, but this would be an east coast storm with a track along the coast or just inland.

 

I like the period right after this. That’s more of a cold front for us/NNE snow type setup l. Ridge hasn’t beaten down yet. Once that front passes there should be a window with decent cold air available 

6z euro

Gefs with a nice signal for this range.

 

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Look how fast we transition.. 19F Now

Pacific ridge/High pressure Wow, the whole Pacific is ridging.

Every time you post those ncep images I forget if I'm in 2003 or 2022

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It would take something dynamic. But most March events do. March 2014 and 2015 was an extreme anomaly. Usually we need to get bombed with a perfect track or upper level pass. 

Yea was gonna post earlier with the map Cape posted, would probably need a well timed shortwave, one ahead to flatten out the ridge, and then something behind to pass at a perfect location. I think we'll track an event in March, but it does look like hibernation for the next 10 plus days 

Nam came back to earth, it had its typical insane run, but as is its aligning towards most guidance with 2 to 4 around the city 

9 minutes ago, RedSky said:

57 glorious degrees 

 

And the 6ers have James Harden!

Ukie/GFS tandem never fails. Lock it up

2 hours ago, Snowmadness said:

 

 

(Speaking from Richmond) For last two winters,  the NAO has never gone negative for more then a day or two the  entire winter. It is frequently negative rest of the months but  for some reason,  from early December  to Mid March it is always strongly positive for slightly above neutral.  Zero Blocking.  This winter is especially bad.  Guessing La Nina has  a lot to do with it.  I really don’t understand the science behind what drives the patterns other then how the indexes show favorable or unfavorable patterns.  Now,  the only  favorable index this winter, the PNA is forecasted  to go negative and MJO entering warmer phases. Maybe  we may get lucky mid March if pattern can flip back, -NAO blocking and MJO can cycle back around to 8-1.  Until then, it  seems we  need  absolute perfection and timing of cold fronts and  low positions  to give us a good winter storm.   Super low odds with all the vortexes flying around.  I think we have had like 6 inches (RVA)  total between all the storms.  North, South,  East and West of us have a foot plus. Sorry to rant. Just  a frustrating winter for us.  If this happens again next winter, I will seriously storm chase the next big snow even if I have to fly to Maine or Canada….lol …Sorry to rant.  

 

Yep, it's why I started chasing storms many years ago. I go to at least one per year. Less stress worrying about storms hitting my backyard. I was just near Boston for last weekends event, was pretty epic. Then again others think I'm crazy. I don't really blame them lol..

Ensembles have been garbage this year anyway. This might be the first time all winter we've had every major OP model have a winter storm at this range. What could go wrong?! Ha. 

Icon, cmc, euro, and to some extent the gfs looks pretty darn similar at 180 hours with this shortwave. 

28 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Tip started a thread for it.

I'm way late to the party, didn't notice that ty

No posts about it, but the 18z euro looked interesting at end of run. It was digging the shortwave pretty far south.