2001kx

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z Euro for Wed is . Double digit snowfall for everyone.

Nope

Shows less for me than previous runs. 

9 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

Like the looks of that one.... we're tired of being fringed back here!

Amen brotha 

17 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well Euro is, snowy lol. What a hit on the eastern 2/3s of the state. Some snowmaps, these are 10:1 maps and i'm using 24 hr snowfall to separate the two potential events. 

This is Monday's wave, as Euro continues to support a snow event with that system:

 

This is Wednesday/Thurs:

Im always on the edge...But its 5 days away

On 11/24/2020 at 11:39 PM, MAG5035 said:

 

Trying to catch up here, I have been wanting to make a fuller post on the state of things and some of my thoughts on what this winter might do. @Blizzard of 93, I think this upcoming pattern presents a window of opportunity to get on the board with a more widespread event at some point during the front half of the month. Models seem to be zeroing a bit timing wise on the next major system around Mon/Tues. Really this is the first big storm of the fall/winter on the progs for the eastern half of the US that wasn't tropical or tropical influenced. Likely heading to the lakes as I don't feel we're established quite yet with the pattern/cold air regime that we need. Additionally, models (Euro/GFS) seem to be supporting early phasing of shortwaves as well, so the business end of this storm system up front is likely a pretty good rain event (which also isn't a bad thing in terms of drought relief). Now the 12z Canadian was interesting as it seemed to to be a bit east with the positioning of features, allowing a phase and deep low up into eastern PA and then NY State. That would put the western half of PA in the game.  Lots of high heights up top keep the system from just shooting out and all guidance closes off the system, which depending on positioning of the features (surface low/500 low/etc) could dictate where some backlash snows and/or lake effect and upslope occurs. Somewhat more progressive could get us in a better position but I lean more towards this system being the one that could set the pattern up for the next one to have a much better shot. 12z Euro hints at that somewhat with a follow up wave late next week.  Overall, that would be something I would keep an eye on as this week rolls along.. could be a bigger surface wave as depicted with that or perhaps a weaker wave that presents a lighter, but widespread event. We should hold in at least seasonable cold beyond Tues/Wed. It doesn't look like an in and out type deal like our cold shots have been to this point. Teleconnections show a nice +PNA to develop with NAO/AO at least neutralizing after a bit of a surge positive the next few days. Perhaps of almost as big of importance as the +PNA is the MJO progged to stay in the circle.. with esp the ECMWF forecast variations keeping it buried there for awhile.

So trying to blend this post into the bigger picture part of the equation..

@2001kx, I was looking into his 2020 wintercast online since I didn't see it the day it was on TV. Generally I agree with his numbers and he's got the standard boilerplate Nina type influences (lots of storms cut west/mixing systems, changeable temps, etc). The last winter post I made awhile back I mentioned that I felt snow totals would be perhaps 75%-ish for pretty much all of us with the Laurels region perhaps seeing the best shot at an average season. So yea, agreed there.. but I def don't agree or understand how he's coming to that conclusion from an analog standpoint. Says his top analog is 2015-2016. What? That winter was a record breaking NINO when we're coming into this winter at a solid NINA. I don't know if he's referencing some other factor when it comes to using that as a top analog but ENSO is one of the biggest influences (especially when they're moderate/strong).. so I def wouldn't be using that. 

Even though the Nina is somewhat less than the current one, 2005-2006 should probably get a look as an analog. The hyperactive tropical season that also lasted late is the obvious similarity with the lead in to winter. That winter was a quick starter at the end of Nov/December that then pretty much disappeared until the Feb 2006 coastal.  I think what happens in December is going to be pretty important whether or not we can achieve what I think will be a 75% type snowfall winter. I'm banking on a more wintry December than we've had the last couple years (perhaps 2017ish), and I've seen enough to have fairly good confidence with that. With the above remarks about the MJO forecast into the circle in mind check out what happened in 2005:

And then thereafter Jan-Mar 2006:

 

So one can see the 4-5-6 run that took a large chunk of January and then the Feb 11th nor'easter was smack in the middle of an 8-1-2 run. Overall, this particular winter wasn't really a great one outside of the early cold and snow in December and then the Feb storm. This is something that some forecasters (even JB) are considering as a good possibility of happening deeper into the winter... with the moderate/strong Nina driving a more dominant 4-5-6 regime equating to lots of above average in the east. It's also something I'm mindful of...but it doesn't necessarily have to happen though, especially if the Nina eventually starts to weaken.  At any rate, that 2005-2006 analog isn't perfect by any means. Aside from that one being a weaker La Nina event than currently, SST anomalies in the rest of the Pac and Atlantic basins really don't match up well to what we have now. Both basins have larges swaths of above normal SST's now compared to being much cooler in 2005. 2017-2018 could get a look as an analog as well as the most recent La Nina and additionally one that the current Nina is tracking pretty close to numbers wise. That featured an Atlantic basin similar to now, although the N Pacific had more below normal SST's. That winter had its very warm stretches, esp in February.. but we fared a lot better with snow and also had the big hitter in late March and snow into April. It also had some shots of snow and cold in December (end of December was very cold). But back to the SST anomalies..

2005:

2017:

Now:

 

So you can see the 2017 map looks a good bit closer to what we have now, with the difference still being the warmer north Pacific (looking more like this time last year there). That much warmer Pac probably will have implications in the positioning of the jet stream in the EPO/WPO realm. So lots of things to consider, this Nina is unique with how warm the northern Pacific is when comparing to any of the other recent Nina's of the past 20 or so years as well (98-99, 99-00, 07-08, 10-11, 11-12). What that might mean for our sensible weather later this winter I'm not quite sure. And even though I'm expecting a somewhat below normal winter this year snow-wise, I still expect it to be much better than last year just simply because I'm betting on the side of statistics that we don't see such an anomalous and long lasting +AO regime and extremely strong polar vortex again this winter. I feel that was what made a bad winter last year historically bad since the overall setup last winter pretty much rendered northern branch events for us nonexistent since the ++AO regime had that northern jet too high while the other systems mostly cut west with the eastern ridge. Even in a bad winter we normally still at least get a decent event or two over the course of the seasonand that one didn't even do that. I do also think we're going to need more help from the NAO realm than usual to help keep the storm track under us more if we're presented with a traditional Nina pattern. 

Well I really went into the rabbit hole with this, I don't usually dive too deep into these long range things but I'm trying to get better at analyzing this stuff. I am looking at this period coming up to start the first half of December with optimism though as like I mentioned, we look to have a period of opportunity. What happens beyond, we shall see. For the record I'm not writing anything off, good or bad. 

 

 

 

Nice Write up, thanks MAG.

14 hours ago, Voyager said:

How do you clear snow off of a Colorado steam tourist railroad in the Rocky Mountains? With steam of course...

 

 

Would love that job..

Joe Murgo's Wintercast (WTAJ) was doom and gloom if you like snow.

On 9/5/2020 at 5:20 PM, canderson said:

Hope all is well with you!

I wish it was but had a rough couple months..

Was hit in the face by a rock during an Motocross Race..Busted my goggles.

Fractured my eye socket, cheek bone, around my nasal cavity and above my upper back teeth (jaw bone)

But the worst part is my eye has a blurry spot in the middle and my pupil doesnt work (always big / open) and the dr. said it may never get better.

Other than that it has been good -lol.

was in the 40's here as well.

1 hour ago, paweather said:

I'll take a couple of inches in May!

Clearfield bullseye on that Nam.

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Here's some second hand pics I saw on my F-book feed out of Clinton County, likely from early tonight. First one's at LHU in Lock Haven in southern Clinton and the second one looks like Rt 120 west somewhere between Lock Haven and Renovo in the western end of the county. 

CTP and BGM PNS statements had some 6"+ amounts in it. The west end of State College had 2-3" and Potter and Tioga counties had a couple 5-6" reports. CTP's statement was issued just before 11pm so some of those amounts in the far northern tier probably ended up higher.  Binghamton the city had a 7" report (Endicott) and 5.7" at their NWS office.

Pretty impressive for mid april.

Yeah it's been a rough winter for all...will take what I get and be good with it.. 

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Congrats! 

Just now, pawatch said:

Non accumulating snow here all afternoon.

2001kx good to see you picking up from snow.

2.25 on that chair and roughly 2" or so in other spots...but it just switched to rain / sleet

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

How much do you have? It looked like the top of the mountain easily had advisory amounts.

will measure but here is a pic from my deck.

13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Impressive, down to Clearfield's elevation with the snow on the road.

It's was coming down pretty good for a while...I live about 3 miles from there as the crow flies.

8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Looks like I-80 at the top of Rockton Mountain is starting to cave. 

Snowing much harder here now...bigger flakes.

Temp 33

Think it will stay all snow here?

10 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thanks for the pics! Have fun and enjoy it. 

18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I think the further south rain/snow line of the Euro ended up being most correct, as we do have some instances of snow on the ground below I-80 this afternoon. Just rain here, but State College has had snow and there is some on the ground on the 511 cams up there and ESE of there on top of Seven Mountains (Rt 322). I-80 from Milesburg west to the Ohio border has varying degrees of snow.  

The rates have picked up and its now sticking much easier.

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Per my comment a few years back in my "Day In the Life of Central PA Weather" thread, I swear it snows at your place from June through the following May.  

Ha i remember that...Still snowing but temp went up a degree and a little melting is happening now... So not as white as earlier.

Steady light snow..Everything is starting to turn white (33 degrees)

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 I was ready for some Candymonium myself...

Me too...this was my first year buying season passes to Hershey Park.

I couldn't have picked a worse time to start although I bought them last year.

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Congrats!

So, can the forum please be invited up to your place for the potential snowstorm on Friday?

Clearfield looks to be in the bullseye according to the 18z Euro !

 

Sure but bring your masks

Huge flakes flying out there...the ground is starting to whiten.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-161930-
Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-
326 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A cold front will produce a band of locally heavy snow late this
afternoon and this evening over the Northwest Mountains and parts of
the West Central Mountains. Up to one inch per hour rates are
possible between 5 pm and 9 pm, and temperatures will locally fall
to around freezing, causing dangerous travel through mid evening.

49 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The article I read on Cumberlink said 60 total for PA yesterday.  NYC went up quite a bit from the day before...a bit surprising.

 

 

The death toll should be 2 weeks behind the new infections due to the amount of time between getting it and dying which i hear is a week or two from onset.

So hopefully we will start to see the light at the end of the tunnel soon.

6 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

 

If there was ever a tornado that flies in the face of that theory, that particular tornado was it. That was at the time I believe one of the widest tornadoes ever recorded and it ripped a swath in the woods of Northern Clearfield and Clinton Counties, where it is quite mountainous. I think the only reason it probably wasn't rated an F5 was because that storm miraculously tracked nearly its entire 70 mile path in the part of PA where there literally isn't anything else other than state forest, so there really wasn't anything else to rate damage-wise other than the sheared and uprooted trees. That was during the time when the original Fuguita scale was used.

That outbreak featured a setup in western PA that day more reminiscent of what you would see in major plains outbreaks, large CAPE coupled with the proper shear. Certainly the terrain in central PA is much more often than not detrimental in the aspect of having the prime setup for a classic tornadic outbreak. But if you achieve that setup and you have a long tracked supercell/tornado of that magnitude on the ground, it doesn't matter what the terrain is that it's crossing. And that's certainly the lesson to be learned there. Western PA, and especially NW PA where the absolute worst of that outbreak occurred is probably the part of the state most conducive to stuff like that. Why? Because you can achieve that low level southerly/southwesterly flow more readily. There's no mountains to the west that holds clouds in the low levels and/or maintains a stable surface/boundary layer via a cool air damming scenario. You also have to have a favorable track from the parent low pressure system for an organized severe outbreak (outside of MCS and some derecho events), and that's part of why our "tornado season" is typically in that late May-June timeframe. 

Here's the best image/loop you'll get of the 85 outbreak. You can see western PA cleared out and it's likely the severe parameters were such that it was able to maintain the supercell responsible for the Moshannon tornado. Also not mentioned much in the details of this outbreak is that this also caused several tornadoes in Ontario as well. 

 

Radar image of the Moshannon tornado from the old school radar that was on top of the Walker building at Penn State.

CTP's writeup on this , which is a good one with all the weather maps of the setup. 

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/TornadoOutbreak_May311985

 

I remember that day...was very scared as a kid (would be now as well)

Was hiding in the basement listening to the radio...They were calling for a hit to my area (leconted mills) but it went just north of us luckily.