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2001kx

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    Central PA - February 2020

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

    I'd say the potential system near the 6-7th represents the best chance of anything that may materialize as a northern branch wave drops in and look to maybe phase. Seemed like roughly 1/4 of the members on each ensemble showed 2"+ at MDT with some bigger snows in there bumping the mean up. Think the 12z Euro ensembles for instance had something like 14/51 members with 2"+ with 4 having more than 6". It's a half decent signal at that range but I see the same base issues though stemming from our dominant pattern of anomalous low heights over the pole with a high northern branch and progression. The northern wave does seem to drop down with some amplification and a pretty good signal of phasing on the models, but not enough for my liking.. and too late. Wavelengths are shortened but it's too progressive with no blocking downstream or up top. Unfortunately I think New England is better positioned to get something out of this. Very short window for this to materialize for anyone as the cold coming in with this is in and out rapidly. 

    Did not like the long range on the ensembles as the PV over the pole remains strongly in tact with general troughing near the west coast (quietly a pretty solid -PNA forecasted) and consistent central Pac ridging. As such all the ensembles show above normal heights in the east in the longer term. We look closer to early spring fling than scoring a winter storm with a look like that. This stuff over the pole staying business as usual throughout the model runs pretty much play into my worry of this very dominant pattern not breaking down til it's too late.. or at least late enough that it makes things much harder for us to score anything climo wise. 

    It'd take a storm of that description for me to consider the winter maybe at least a little bit salvaged haha. And you better not leave @Wmsptwx and esp @2001kx out of this. You think I'd boycott the storm if it missed me? Haha

     

    :thumbsup:

    Central PA - February 2020

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

    Nice haha. Judging by the satellite it looked like the more organized band you were under had a Huron connection to it, which is typically a way to send more significant lake snows deep into C-PA.

    Yeah i was lucky today...2" is a big deal this year unfortunately...but i'll take it. 

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