frostfern

Your corn dewpoints penetrated into MBY in Michigan for a more extended period than usual. Never hit 80, but had a good long stretch of 75+.

Monday might be a high temp bust for my area if we get storms or storm outflow tonight. Could use any rain at this point though, and Tuesday and Wednesday will not bust.

If it’s going to be this cold and miserable I don’t want to get gyped on the rainfall.

It would be nice to avoid smoke season altogether this year, Last July was horrible as well. Every cold front brought dense smoke and every ridge brought haze and humidity. I forgot what deep blue sky looked like for a bit.

It usually only happens in the spring, and stops around Chicago due to easterly component off Lake MI even then. I haven’t been paying attention because it’s just going to a chilly stratiform rainer with an embedded rumble or two IMBY.

Had a few quarter sized stones hit my sliding door around 4:30 PM. Most of the stones were probably .5” and soft looking, but some close to 1” were mixed in. I could definitely hear the bigger harder ones hitting sporadically. Had to warn my parents who live 1 mile away to protect their cars. No severe warning for this cell. I guess it’s hard to see a marginal hail core very close to the radar.

Little tornado near Bristol Indiana. CC drop.

When the line over Lake Michigan catches up to the stuff out ahead, there should be a big general wind bag event. My prediction.

Cass County has a tornado warning now. Somewhat of an embedded HP supercell in the line.

Something tightening up in Cass County MI now. Far SW Michigan still not out of the woods.

Don’t even have a severe yet. The fuel source is a bit elevated for tornadoes near 1-96, but we have a warm boundary layer this side of the lake, so the initial gusts could get crazy as the bow / comma pushes inland. The bottom thee rows definitely need the tornado watch as that area has decent surface based instability.

I don’t know, but the SW corner of Michigan might still be in play for a couple tornadoes. Higher dewpoints have finally surged north. Maybe the dying crapvection boosted the moisture but 2000 j/kg should be enough if it maintains.

I wonder if the cell merger well help steer it right at Kankakee, yet again. The track is so similar to the one in March. It’s isolated enough to produce multiple times.

That’s a nasty debris ball.

I just live here. I do have a met degree and used to storm chase a bit. I don’t pay for model data as much as others here, so I’m mostly in the same boat as you. I just have good weather intuition, usually. The mesoscale charts on the SPC page I find the most useful during severe weather. I know Michigan well because I grew up here.