frostfern

Not even scraps make it here, but of course just enough outflow debris to prevent any action this afternoon.

It will probably survive over the lake then croak and dry out right as it comes onshore. I hope to get some WAA popcorn out ahead. Thoughts and prayers.

I don’t really see anything resembling a tornadic couplet with that warning. GRR office also preemptively tor warned a small bowing segment on May 15. I guess the risk for spinups is high.

Nice comma head MCV. Do CAMs show it? Is it headed for MBY? Lase time I saw CAM output it was whiffing north and dying.

They’re going by instability alone and expecting upscale growth to drive a squall line east I guess. There’s not much westerly shear component to support it. Definitely not way after dark. If not a squall line, maybe they anticipate isolated supercells along the warm front into the night. Nowhere near widespread enough to warrant an enhanced risk towards Chicago though.

All I can hope for is wetter soil upstream so dewpoints get higher. Tiny baby steps. It’s getting real tiring relying on scattered convection maybe popping up overhead. Don’t know when if ever a mature MCS survives up here.

I wasn’t disagreeing either. Just adding. This July is looking to be very warm, possibly even record on average for Michigan, but the lack of record highs is not too surprising. Lack of strong cold fronts and warm nights is really what’s driving the warming trend.

Crazy localized! Was it a backbuilding cell?

Cruel tease. That cell backbuilt for a bit and had 60 dbz aloft. It had a lot of thunder certainly. I got a little gust front from the south and it got dark briefly, but the rain didn’t really fill in until it was well north of me, around 3 mile. I picked up .02”.

I’m hearing thunder from a cell right over you. Good luck with this 10 minute shower. It will miss south of me but maybe an outflow boundary can pop another.

I want it to be real, but it does look exactly like another video where the ball was generated by a pair of power lines. I can’t really see any poles though.

What about the Great Lakes? A mean trough is usually no good around here if it’s just progressive cold fronts scouring moisture out. Need a fully stalled cut-off to plant itself over Minnesota or Wisconsin and pump the 70 degree dewpoints into here. Last time that happened was June 2021.

I think the biggest reason those records are so hard to beat is the increased humidity. Modern agriculture with irrigation systems and a warmer GOM makes drought-driven heatwaves unlikely. July 1995 showed you don’t always need low relative humidity to break records, but that was a much shorter event driven by an unusual synoptic pattern that was ultimately transient. To get long-duration heat waves like the 1930s you need low RH.

The north-to-south temperature gradient has been too baggy. Southern Canada warm, no big heat south. Thus no jet dynamics to force convection and keep it going through the night. We’ve had enough storm damage this year on this side of the state from the March 30 and May 15 events alone. I’m not begging for a derecho here, but it seems without a better setup it’s hard to get even garden variety rains.

It’s even worse closer to the lake. I at least got a couple .25” in 10 minutes type showers the past couple weeks just east of GRR. It’s been hot enough we lose that much to evaporation every day though.