This reminds me of a blue balls event in late January 2004. We were in the bullseye for days only to have to system do what this one did. We ended up with 2 inches while NYC got 12+.
I think Luke is taking a “what can go wrong” approach which is prudent. That said-there isn’t really a whiff of a ratter signal at the moment. Gun to head I’d say normal for most-some good and bad spells but overall your average winter.
He’s actually predicting a good snow winter for us as is now. 94-95 is by no means his main analog. We’ll see what happens but rain dance is fairly optimistic snow wise for most of joy all of us.