weathafella

I don’t think it’s been all that boring. We had record warmth followed by a snap to subnormal in mid November including a storm which produced a net snow gain in much of NNE. We have a potential qpf threat later this coming week which MAY produce wintry precipitation in parts of NNE. We have the expected pattern shuffling as we go into December with continuing threats in NNE. We have the suggestion of deeper winter mid December and beyond. Yet many of you are qvetchimg. (Look it up if you don’t know what it means)

Except 12/16/07-dumbfounding

You have to remember, Kevin is devout....

KBUF gets the hard synoptic end on Black Friday per euro.

As I recall, the main issue with the pope is he had this back end of November cold snap as a “back to normal” time.

BOS finally broke 32.

IMG_2194.MOV

Bearing down on Torch Lake-ironically named in this context….

A great night to be 20 miles north of Petoskey.

Our daughter is en route from btv-called to taunt me with how beautiful the falling snow is on the way….

Clown range GFS with a weenie dream

That’s a big change in the pacific on eps in the long range!

Still big difference between eps and GEFS for the thanksgiving weekend timeframe. It’s far enough out but someone will cave if they don’t meet in the middle.

Ray, your work ethic is amazing with this! Details and always learning opportunities. Thanks for taking the time and putting this out. Good luck on verification!

Yeah that was a nice one. I got 6.3 that night.

Legit snow now

Mix here. First flakes

Hey kid-58 for me.

JD, I understand that part but the pv that we refer to as having an immediate effect on sensible wx is at h5 I believe. So George ‘s impression that we want the strat vortex to split greatly influencing our sensible wx may not be correct. However, we’d rather a split than not. As Will posted, it helps but it’s not the main influencer.

25 here for a low. 2 hour walk last night late-sub freezing from start to finish but after 45 minutes you warm up from the exercise. Clouding up now-rainy and cold tomorrow. Aka November.

1…..but I’m going with none.

Doesn’t mean much but I’m seeing the first muthufukkas of the 2022-23 winter.

Wait-you’re shadowed my mtns on both sides? That doesn’t sound ideal for snow amounts. Kevin laid it out but good luck anyway!

40 here at peak heating with full sun all day. Winter like.

You confuse the strat vortex with the common term polar vortex which to my knowledge is typically seen at 500mb. Maybe I’m wrong but that’s my understanding.