WEATHER53

Looks far more likely chance for suppression then rain. Snower or no goer.

The rain

all of it

all the time 

Randy-do you have that Obi Wan picture I used for years?

We are finally seeing the cold air pooling in our best source region. People have referenced 1985 and that was epic cold, really only 1982 and 1994 outdid it

5 hours ago, frd said:

 

Speculation that maybe there are still issues on the Pac side .

 

Maybe at this time there are still improvements not modeled, and I read that the Pac improves further month's end.  I know HM alluded to the NE Pac and the transition to take place. 

 

 

 

 

Decent signs of some Mongolia sourced cold air making it at least into Northern  PA. 

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Howard! How have you been? 

Regardless of details, we should all do pretty well. Hope you guys get crushed....I'd gladly take a PD II redux.

Gimme a hug!

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like posting in here. You guys are a really passionate group. I think we are all in for a fun ride. 

We like you too.

Keith had a good call, mine not warm enough, Matt a very good call for December 

4 hours ago, Ji said:

i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels

You got it exactly. Right at 10k wrong at surface vodka that never poured.

Until we can get some Mongolian high pressure we are going to stay in the now dominant pattern of  lows  into the lakes. Even worse it’s the central and western lakes and not eastern .

Early November snows do not translate well for winter.  The only high we got that set up right was a 30.60 crushing monsters. The 30.25s just can’t  get set up and that must change. Looking for that Mongolian high far more than MJO or SSW

Fields in Delaware along 404 can’t drain, acres  and acres under water and not just low spots 

Just 10 more days away 

I know some are doing the Jan-March later winter cold and snowy dance but we are in trouble and heading for more. Zip in Dec and New Years is now getting pushed back. Trends are hard to break and we gotta get out of the “lows to the west trend” I would caution against the SSW emphasis as our savior as its unproven. Never did see a big snow winter, two or three events of 4-6” each gets me to my 12-15” call and Jan 1/2 which back on 12/15 looked promising now looks like 50-60. That’s gotta stop, the first can’t become the 10Th which then becomes the 20th.

its hard to snow around DC, we need a lot of cooperation and last 30 days have not provided it and nothing favorable really looming 

I’ve seen the “10 days away” before from early Dec to mid March and it never comes. The Vodka Cold Coming winter may be the most infamous and there’s 2 or 3 more.

I still think Jan is a minus temp month and did not call for much snow in long range.

New year event looks good for DC. Weak low moving under us and solid but not insane high to the north 

7 hours ago, Sparky said:

Actually that was a separate storm from the one I am talking about.  The midwest (Ohio) blizzard was near the end of January.  The one I am talking about was an eastern seaboard coastal system that developed way out over the ocean in early Feb around the 5th, 6th but moved to the northwest into New England with major wrap around side effects into northern MD, New Jersey, Eastern PA, Delaware.

79 I think. ocean froze  in OC out 200’

Gusty southerly breezes and up to 56F from 42 earlier 

7 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Pd 2 was pretty exhilarating snowing at 9-11 degrees all day . 96 ' also a cold one at 14-17 for much of the storm. I don't mind it at all . Hard to beat giant pillows at 33 degrees though I must  say .

12 degrees and snowing like crazy at 1pm with zero sun effect is very special

Haven’t read thru but seen it discussed about temps and huge snows. What were the temps for top 10 biggest DC?

The rainfall is my new number one 

We are getting something fired at us once a week with 12 weeks to go. 60% to west, 20% to south, 20% hit.  2-3 decent snow events 

Nice for you all

If can’t get it I’m happy for who can

whats that place in Smokies, Klinsman Dome?

What they get?

lots of opportunities upcoming

Not one flake here but overcast and 32 and not windy so fun getting tree.

Looks like some stations had heavy snow and 30mph gusts so must have been great.

3 minutes ago, PWC Split said:

WTF TenMan my baro is 30.25...I thought that was a good number for snow

Within the hour

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

That awesome baroclinic leaf perhaps?  

Weeping negative Nellie